Week 12 Sunday Night Football brings the two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers into Philadelphia to take on potential MVP Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
Heading into NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 12 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Green Bay Packers at the Philadelphia Eagles.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 12 SNF | Packers-Eagles
Green Bay will be without rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs (ankle), while linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (knee) is doubtful and cornerback Shemar Jean-Charles (ankle) and tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) are questionable.
Philadelphia is missing tight end Dallas Goedert (shoulder), though there are no other new injuries since last week.
Green Bay Packers: 19.75 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections are sending no Thanksgiving wishes towards Aaron Rodgers, as he ranks No. 19th for Week 12 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Such is the current state of affairs for the reigning back-to-back NFL MVP. He is clearly missing Davante Adams, who has been thriving in Las Vegas after reuniting with his college quarterback. This is not going to be an easy matchup on the road in front of the raucous Philadelphia faithful while also squaring off against the third-best passing DVOA per Football Outsiders.
No opposing quarterback has posted more than 250 aerial yards on the Eagles, who also have a league-leading 13 interceptions while ceding only eight passing touchdowns. Rodgers does have eight multi-touchdown games in his 11 outings, though only once has he surpassed 255 passing yards. Though both teams prefer to run and that is the easier path against the respective defenses, it is all but assured that Rodgers will attempt 35 or so passes.
Running Back
Philadelphia has the seventh-worst rushing DVOA according to Football Outsiders, so it does make sense that Green Bay will try to keep things on the ground and control the clock as best they can in the first half. Five different running backs have rushed for at least 80 yards against the Eagles, so a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and likely his wingman A.J. Dillon should be in the cards.
The cold bucket of reality is that Dillon has not tallied double-digit fantasy points since Week 1, even though he has a salary indicative of a more productive player. Jones has four games with 22 or more fantasy points in full-PPR scoring, but he also has five games with 11 or fewer. Dillon is in play on DraftKings ($4,800), but he is far from appealing on FanDuel ($10,000), particularly when Jones is only $3,500 more. The other Green Bay running backs have combined for only two offensive snaps this season.
Wide Receiver
Rookie Romeo Doubs is still out with an ankle injury, but fellow rookie Christian Watson has been on a heater over the last two games, with a ridiculous eight receptions, 155 yards and five — yes, FIVE — touchdowns on just 14 targets. While that is clearly not sustainable in any form or fashion, it does give the defense something to think about.
Randall Cobb returned from the injured reserve last week and played on 56% of the snaps and he should see something similar tonight. Allen Lazard has been banged up for a large portion of the season, but he has missed only one game since the opener and gamely has been on the field for 88% or more of the offensive plays in seven of nine appearances. Most importantly, Lazard has 11, 4 and 10 targets in his last three games. Amari Rodgers was released after Week 10, though Green Bay’s third rookie wideout, Samori Toure, was only on the field for four plays. Veteran Sammy Watkins is always lurking in the shadows, though he rarely ends up hearing his name called on the telecast.
Tight End
Robert Tonyan Jr. is of course the best receiving tight end on the team, but he has not recaptured the magic of the 2020 Pandemic season when he posted a career-high 11 touchdowns. In 19 games since then, he has a solid 80 targets for 59 receptions and 546 yards, but just three trips into the end zone. Elder statesman Marcedes Lewis typically gets two dozen snaps per game, with Josiah Deguara close behind. This duo has just 15 combined targets on the season, with Lewis getting only three. They are best left to the mass-multi-entry crowd making 75 or more lineups.
Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia is allowing 2.6 sacks per game and Green Bay is getting to opposing quarterbacks just twice per tilt on average. The Eagles are second in the league having allowed only nine turnovers, while the Packers have recorded only 11 takeaways.
Philadelphia Eagles: 26.25 Points
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts continues to be amazing, though this game is far from a gimme for the 9-1 Eagles. While Hurts is averaging 240.7 passing yards per game, which is outside of the top 10 for that category, he does have an impressive 15 aerial scores against only a trio of interceptions. The third-year signal-caller is averaging another 44 yards per game on the ground, and his eight rushing touchdowns are the fourth most in the league. If this game remains competitive, Hurts could post some truly gaudy stats.
Running Back
This is a backfield by committee, particularly when considering how much Hurts contributes with his legs. Miles Sanders is the lead option, though he typically has a ceiling around two-thirds of the snaps and his involvement in the passing game has declined for a fourth consecutive season. To his credit he does have a career-best six rushing scores, but it has been 36 games since his last touchdown reception.
Kenny Gainwell is the change-of-pace back and he likely will be in the mix for around a quarter of the offensive plays. He has been effective in limited touches and his 14 targets trail Sanders by only one, despite only being on the field for a fraction of the snaps. Over the last four games, Gainwell has seven carries for 32 yards and a score, along with five catches for another 29 yards. Boston Scott is a long shot, even in single-game formats and unless something befalls one of the other running backs or if he slides into significant mop up duty, it is hard to see him with more than a handful of opportunities.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been a nice one-two fantasy punch this season. Smith leads the receiving corps in snap share, playing on just over 90% of the offensive plays, with Brown not far behind in the mid-80s. Smith has a significant 40% discount to Brown on DraftKings compared to 20% on FanDuel. Smith has eight or more targets in four of his last six games, with Brown reaching that threshold twice. Brown can score from anywhere on the field, and he is worthy of the multiplier slot around lineup No. 15.
Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal should each see a bit of an uptick with tight end Dallas Goedert out. Neither is a strong option, but with the salary cap relief they provide, they should both be in player pools, though limit lineups to at most one of this pair.
Tight End
Goedert leaves a massing chasm of stats to fill; however, it is unlikely much of it will be provided by the remaining tight ends. Jack Stoll played on 81% of the snaps last week, but he saw only one target and he has just eight on the season. Grant Calcaterra and Tyree Jackson round out the position, but it would be a surprise if they combined for more than two targets tonight. This is why Watkins and Pascal start to look appealing, with Philadelphia likely to move to three-wide receiver sets while leaving Stoll in on the line as a blocker.
Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia leads the league in takeaways with 21, while Green Bay has suffered the fourth-most turnovers on the season with 15 and a near-even split between interceptions and fumbles. The Packers are ceding only two sacks per game, and the Eagles rank third with 3.3 sacks per tilt.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy For Packers-Eagles
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Week 12 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings For Packers-Eagles
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Packers-Eagles
- Jalen Hurts: Hurts so good!
- A.J. Brown: Feels like a multi-touchdown game is brewing.
- Aaron Jones: Game flow proof, no discount on his salary anywhere in the industry.
- Aaron Rodgers: Needs to get there on efficiency and have a multi-touchdown game.
- DeVonta Smith: Decent touchdown equity, compared to the Philly running backs.
- Allen Lazard: Should have the attention of the defense, easily the “best” Green Bay receiver.
- Randall Cobb: Better on DraftKings in the full-PPR scoring format.
- Quez Watkins: We need some salary relief, and the kickers are not getting any volume for either team.
- Miles Sanders: Lacking in the passing game and red zone equity takes a hit, courtesy of his quarterback.
- Christian Watson: Ridiculous efficiency simply cannot continue, caveat emptor!
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Packers-Eagles
- Jake Elliott: 2021 Pro Bowler, only nine field goal attempts on the season.
- Mason Crosby: The 38-year-old no longer booms kicks from distance, but he is highly effective inside of 45 yards.
- A.J. Dillon: Take the savings on DraftKings, roll the dice for a rare end zone appearance on FanDuel.
- Philadelphia D/ST: This unit does a great job of capitalizing on opponent errors.
- Robert Tonyan Jr.: Needs a touchdown to be a difference maker.
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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Packers-Eagles
- Kenneth Gainwell: Volume has steadily dried up, still could make some noise.
- Green Bay D/ST: Meh.
- Zach Pascal: Similar range of outcomes as Watkins, let personal preference be your guide.
- Jack Stoll: Skip on FanDuel, at least will be on the field – could be a neutral option on DraftKings if he gets two for 20 yards, with the salary savings being allocated for upgrades.
- Sammy Watkins: The veteran still warrants his own line, just barely.
- Boston Scott: Playing for mop up duty or in-game injury to Sanders.
- Grant Calcaterra, Josiah Deguara, Tyree Jackson, Tyler Davis and Marcedes Lewis: Backup tight ends, combined this motley crew has an over/under of 3.5 targets.
- Samori Toure, Britain Covey, Noah Togiai and Jordan Love: Thanksgiving leftovers.
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