Monday Night Football for Week 4 features an AFC West showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. The line on this game has moved between -3 and -3.5 in favor of the Chargers all week but is now at -3 Chargers. With the Broncos losing, this game will decide whether there is a three-way tie for first in the division or Vegas goes to 4-0 and takes the outright lead alone.
The Raiders may have Josh Jacobs back for this game, but he is listed as questionable. Even if he returns, he could split early-down work with Peyton Barber, who went for over 100 yards on the ground last week. The Chargers have a couple of big defensive names to watch. Cornerback Chris Harris Jr. has a chance to return here but has been listed as questionable. Linebacker Kenneth Murray is also questionable after suffering what appeared to be a bad ankle injury earlier in the week.
Based mainly off the Awesemo site projections, I have listed below top PrizePicks targets for the fourth Monday Night game of the year.
Week 4 Monday Night Football NFL PrizePicks
Darren Waller Over 68.5 Yards Receiving
Darren Waller comes in having seen just 14 targets over his last two games. He has cooled off a bit since Week 1 when he saw 19 targets and made 10 receptions, but this game sets up as a potential breakout spot. The Chargers have some solid corners, including Harris (questionable), who is likely to make it rough on the outside for players like Henry Ruggs if he plays. The Chargers have now allowed the 10th-most receptions to opposing tight ends through three weeks and have one of the better linebackers in Murray (ankle, questionable) banged up for this game.
Matchup aside, the Awesemo projections also show that the PrizePicks props, may be a little low. Waller is projected for 6.76 receptions and 75.9 yards. so users can choose which total to take here. Waller has averaged over 11 yards per catch this year, so six receptions should get him there (though would be a push on the over for receptions). With an elite player like Waller, it is better to lean on going over the yardage mark, as one big play can make up for a lack of volume.
Mike Williams Under 6.0 Receptions
Wideout Mike Williams has had a hot start to the season, as he comes in having scored four touchdowns already and averaging 98.5 yards receiving per game. Despite that, he makes for an interesting fade candidate for a couple of reasons. The Chargers have a couple of other options in Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler who are both very good at getting open and likely will have their way with a thin Raiders defense. The Raiders have ceded at least nine catches to the last two slot receivers they have faced, and Williams is also likely to have Casey Hayward shadow him on the outside. In 2021 Hayward has allowed just a 36% completion rate on passes thrown his way.
The Chargers are fifth in the NFL in pass attempts per game, but again the game script possibilities are a factor here. Both defenses are poor against the run, and there could be a little bit of regression in terms of pure volume from their passing offenses. Williams would likely be the main loser in that scenario given his matchup, and the Awesemo projections see it that way too, as they have him projected for just 4.67 receptions this week. Williams is not an easy player to fade right now, but it does seem like going under is the right call here.
Derek Carr Over 0.5 Interceptions
Derek Carr has started out the season hot. He has thrown for over 8.8 yards per attempt and is averaging over 400 yards per game at the moment as well. It is not even that he might regress a bit in efficiency (he will), but the Raiders are throwing the ball a ton this year — third most in the league to be exact. That kind of volume can propel quarterbacks to great heights in the short term, but it will also put them at bigger risk of turnovers.
Carr already has a couple interceptions on the season and faces a talented Chargers secondary that may have Harris back, and they also have rookie Asante Samuel Jr. to lean on here. The group already has three interceptions and has been good at limiting big plays. The projections see a slightly muted day for Carr (based on the numbers he has put up so far) and have him at about 66% in terms of whether he will throw a pick or not. The over on his interception total is a strong play, as he is facing a talented secondary and projected to be behind late in this game given the spread, which means more opportunities for the turnover.
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