Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate breakdown. In this article we’ll be looking at the props breakdown for the main Sunday slate. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle Over or Under selections into parlays for big payouts. So, from each game we’re offered a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) amount on select players and then need to make a selection as to whether that player will go over or under the total.
Using the Awesemo weekly DFS projections (which also use 1 point/PPR scoring and 4 point passing TDs) and the Awesemo Prop Tool (which projects specific weekly totals for each player) I’ll be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and give you an idea as to why they might be good targets.
PrizePicks NFL Single Stat DFS Picks: Sunday Slate
QB: Zach Wilson under 242.5 passing yards
Wilson’s passing total sets up as a strong target for the Under this week on PrizePicks. The Awesemo Prop Tool has Wilson’s projected line at 216.86 yards, which is one of the biggest discrepancies between a player’s O/U total on PrizePicks and his projection in the tool. When we look at the matchup, there is good reason to think we could see low output from Wilson here. The Jets brought in a veteran running back in Tevin Coleman and drafted a running back in Round 4 of the NFL Draft this year in Michael Carter. Robert Salah remains a defensive-minded coach who was in a strong run first system in San Francisco. Considering Carolina is a weaker team that ranked third-last in pace of play last year, we should see a slower game play out and Wilson’s output capped by a lack of opportunities.
Other Picks:
- Trevor Lawrence over 16.5 rush yards: Lawrence was a pretty useful rusher in college, who rushed for well over 20 yards per game in each of his last two years at Clemson. His prop total here on Awesemo is about 10 yards more than his current projection PrizePicks, and Urban Meyer has had a lot of success with rushing QBs in the past, making this a pretty interesting Over to target.
- Russell Wilson over 264.5 passing yards: A lot of QBs look set for big outputs in Week 1 (don’t forget how bad defenses were early last year) and Wilson is no different. His passing output on Awesemo has him in 280-plus range and he’s going up against a pretty classic “funnel defense” in Indianapolis which was great at limiting RBs last year, but ranked below average in yards per attempt by opponent.
RB: Derrick Henry over 99.5 rush yards
Henry’s big rush totals can often be intimidating, but I like targeting the big guy early in the season here for some overs. Tennessee ran Henry a lot early in 2020 as he averaged right around 28 rush attempts per game in the first portion of last season. The game environment here should also mean lots of attempts for Henry. Both Tennessee and Arizona ranked inside the top-five in pace of play last season and the Titans — who ranked second in rush attempts per game last year — aren’t afraid to give the ball to Henry when trailing. The total is big, but Henry rushed for 95 or more yards in 11 of his 18 starts last year and faces off against an Arizona defense, which ranked ninth-to-last in yards per carry allowed last year, at 4.6 YPC. The over is the play here.
Other Picks:
- Jonathan Taylor under 68.5 rush yards: Unlike Henry, Taylor actually projects with a smaller rushing total in Week 1 as the Awesemo prop tool has his total set around 66 yards. He’s facing a Seahawks defense, which allowed opposing rushers just 3.9 yards per attempt (third-best in the league) and Taylor may also be sharing carries with Marlon Mack here early in the year.
WR: Deebo Samuel over 45.5 receiving yards
When you looks at Samuel’s production last year from when he was healthy this line seems to begging us to take the over. Samuel averaged 84 yards receiving in his final four starts of last season and never went for less than 65 yards in any of those starts. One of the best after-the-catch receivers in the game, he again led the league in yards after the catch per reception in 2020 and gets a Lions defense here that was dead-last in yards per attempt allowed last year. Deebo has a line set at 57.26 yards in the Prop Tool this week making him a target on all fronts.
Other Picks:
- DeVante Parker over 3.5 receptions: Parker will be dealing with increased competition for targets this year but with Will Fuller out Week 1, his 3.5 prop total here does seem low. He caught four or more passes in four of the Dolphins last five games in 2020 and rates out as a good over play on the site.
- Chase Claypool over 52.5 yards: Claypool averaged 13.9 yards per reception in his rookie year and went for 54 or more yards receiving in each of the Steelers last four games of 2020 — despite their offense struggling. He’s another good over target for Week 1, especially with a fresh and rested Ben Roethlisberger.
TE: George Kittle over 55.5 receiving yards
Kittle suffered through another injury-plagued season in 2020, but when he was the healthy, the tight end was still explosive. He averaged 13.2 yards per catch (despite working with backup QBs) and eight targets a game last year, and should remain a focal point of this offense when on the field. The Awesemo prop tool absolutely loves him as an over play here as his prop line against a weak Lions squad is set 70.23 yards. Detroit may figure to improve a little defensively under Dan Campbell but, as mentioned above, they were terrible in pass coverage last year and decided to go O-Line with their first pick in the draft this year. Kittle should see lots of work but may not need more than a few targets to hit over here.
Other Picks:
- Anthony Firkser over 2.5 receptions: This is another low reception total I like looking to for the over this week. I mentioned the pace that Tennessee and Arizona play at above, but Firkser could also benefit here from the fact A.J. Brown is banged up. Either way, with Firkser now the starting pass catcher for the Titans, his total looks far too low here.
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