Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate breakdown. In this article we’re looking at the best Fantasy Scores to target for the main Sunday slate. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle over or under selections into parlays for big payouts. So, from each game we’re offered a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) amount on select players and then need to make a selection as to whether that player will go over or under the total.
Using the Awesemo weekly DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing TDs) and the Awesemo Prop Tool — which projects specific total for each player — I’ll be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and hopefully provide a good guide as to how to build your PrizePicks tickets.
PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Scores DFS Picks: Week 4 Sunday Slate
QB: Kirk Cousins under 20.5 fantasy points
I tried to pick on Kirk Cousins for an under against another solid defense a couple of weeks ago and got burned. He has gotten himself off to a great start in 2021, averaging over 7.7 yards per attempt and also has a 73% completion rate. The party does feel like it could come to an abrupt halt this week though against the Browns, who recorded nine sacks last week and allowed just 68 yards passing. The Vikings’ offense is certainly more competent than the Bears but the matchup here still screams “muted day” for Cousins. Cleveland plays at the fifth-slowest pace in the NFL this year and have now allowed just 6.4 yards per pass attempt (against), the 11th-best mark in the NFL.
Minnesota got the jump on another solid defense with similar metrics in Arizona a couple weeks ago but taking the over here seems like a “hoping-lightning-will-strike-twice” scenario. The Awesemo projections agree with that sentiment, too, as Cousins is graded out to score less than 17 fantasy points on this slate, making him a great under target here, given the difference between his PrizePicks prop and projection.
Other Picks:
- Taylor Heinicke over 19 fantasy points: Taylor Heinicke has now posted two solid games in a row for fantasy purposes. His chances for a third decent game look very strong here too as the Football Team takes on Atlanta here, who is even worse in the points-allowed department and also remain a middling to below average defense. He projects with over 20 fantasy points on Awesemo and has seen his usage as a runner climb the last two games, making him a great over candidate.
RB: Alvin Kamara over 20 fantasy points
This is, admittedly, a big total to go over on this week, especially for a running back in Alvin Kamara, who has averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in 2021. Kamara has faced some tough rush defenses so far though as Carolina and New England both rank inside the top 10 in the league in opponent yards per rush stats. Kamara is still getting plenty of playing time (playing on over 80% of the snaps) and has already seen 13 red zone touches, which is close to the league leaders in that category. Once he faces some weaker rush defenses, some positive regression on the ground is likely coming, as are some rushing touchdowns given his red zone usage.
The main reason we like Kamara this week, though, is the matchup. New Orleans is set as -7.5 home favorites here against a Giants team that is banged up on offense (Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton both out) and have given up 4.6 yards per carry against on defense (eighth-worst in the league). The potential here is also reflected in the Awesemo models this week, which love him for a big game as he carries top rankings and projections across the board at running back this week. The big total shouldn’t scare you form making him an over play in Week 4.
Other Picks
- Myles Gaskin under 12.5 fantasy points: This total on Myles Gaskin looks quite big for a player who only played on 52% of his teams snaps last week and has been out-touched by two other running backs on his team in the red zone this year. Gaskin is also hampered by the Dolphins now having a rushing quarterback, who is great in short yardage situations. He projects as a great under target this week at an inflated total.
WR: Justin Jefferson under 18.5 fantasy points
I’m going to stick to what the projections are telling me this week and that’s mainly that the Vikings’ passing offense is going to struggle in Week 4. Justin Jefferson had his breakout game last week against the Seattle defense, but is going up against a Browns team who has allowed the sixth-fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers, and just a 60% completion rate to the position, overall. Cleveland’s athletic corners are, of course, helped out here by a pass rush that has recorded the second-most sacks in the league thus far. It all makes for a spot where Jefferson’s opportunity to get lots of catchable downfield targets will be hampered.
Jefferson certainly remains in the conversation when talking about the most elite wide receivers in the game, but we also have a prop total this week (18.5 fantasy points over/under), which feels like a huge overreaction to last week’s game. He’s projected to go under 14 fantasy points on Awesemo this week, which tells you just how tough this matchup could be. Cleveland’s slow pace of play and ability to control things on the ground could also really hamper his opportunities. Maybe Minnesota makes me look foolish here again, but I’d rather be on the under side of this offense in a tough matchup.
Other Picks
- Deebo Samuel over 16.5 fantasy points: Despite Deebo Samuel averaging 4 more yards per catch than Jefferson (and seeing the same amount of targets on the year) Samuel has a much lower over/under total on PrizePicks, and has a better matchup. He has been underrated all season and again makes for a great over target in Week 4.
TE: Evan Engram over 7 fantasy points
The Giants much maligned tight end Evan Engram returned to action last week and promptly played on over 50% of the snaps, while seeing six targets. Engram could only manage to convert those targets into two catches, though, which should scare you a little heading into a tough matchup with the Saints. Still, opportunity is everything in the NFL and Engram should get lots of it this week considering the Giants personnel situation. The wide receiving corps is already thin due to injury, which leaves the door wide open for Engram to see more targets.
Engram is essentially a wide receiver playing tight end anyways and often splits out wide or in the slot for New York, a move you should see even more of here. Engram has gone for some big games with Daniel Jones as his quarterback (the two have combined for five or more catches six times in 2020). The prop total is so low in this one that we really may not even need a volume bump from Engram over last week, just a little improved efficiency. It’s a situation worth taking advantage of this week by getting on the over.
Other Picks
- Logan Thomas under 11 fantasy points: Logan Thomas hasn’t been terrible with Heinicke as his quarterback, going for four or more catches in his last two games. Still, at this rate, Thomas will likely need to find the end zone to go over this mark (given his current target share). He’s projected as a solid under candidate here as a result.
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