We will look at which single-stat DFS totals you should be targeting on PrizePicks for NFL Week 4. If you are new to the site, PrizePicks is different than making your traditional NFL DFS picks. Rather, you get the opportunity to bundle over or under selections on a player’s fantasy points into parlays for big payouts. Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing touchdowns) and prop tools, I will be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and give you an idea as to why they might be good targets. To play, pair at least two plays together (up to five), pick over or under the given projected fantasy score or specific stats for players, and you are set.
PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Picks: Week 4 Sunday Slate
QB Zach Wilson Over 205.5 Yards Passing
It is an understatement to say Wilson has struggled so far. He has thrown for six interceptions and zero touchdowns in his last two games and only managed 160 yards last week against the elite Broncos defense. Wilson may struggle again this week, but he is taking on a defense in Tennessee that is much easier to pass against. The Titans have yielded 7.8 yards per pass attempt this year (compared to Denver’s 4.6), the eighth-worst mark in the league. Tennessee has improved its pass rush a bit in 2021, but they still rank well below where Wilson’s first three opponents are in terms of sack rates. Wilson should have more time and less pressure than he has had in his previous three starts, which should also lead to more yards. He is projected to go well over his 205.5-yard line on Awesemo and makes for one of the best over targets on the slate.
Bonus: Kyler Murray Under 278.5 Yards Passing
Murray has had a fantastic start to the year, but he is playing a Rams defense that tends to funnel teams towards the run. Los Angeles has only allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt this year and ranks seventh in sack rate. Murray is a projected under candidate this week on his PrizePicks passing total.
Bonus: Jalen Hurts Over 249.5 Yards Passing
Hurts has now thrown for over 260 yards in four of his six career starts (in which he has finished the game). The Eagles are playing at a fast pace, and their defense was shredded last week. Hurts is a strong over candidate here according to Awesemo’s projections.
RB David Montgomery Over 63.5 Yards Rushing
The Bears offense was throttled last week but faces a much weaker opponent in Week 4 in the Lions. The Lions have not been awful against the run but also do not have the playmakers that the Browns do. The main thinking here is that Montgomery’s touches should go up in this spot after such a bad week by the Bears offensive line. He only received 10 carries last week, compared to 20 and 16 in the week’s prior, and has been the Bears most consistent asset on offense in 2021, as he comes in averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Bears are favored by 2.5, so it should be a much closer game, which should allow for more rush attempts by Montgomery. He is projected for over 18 rushes this week (and well over 70 yards), which makes him a standout over play on PrizePicks.
Bonus: Alvin Kamara Over 69.5 Yards Rushing
Kamara is another running back who is projected to smash the over. He is playing on over 80% of the snaps and facing the Giants, who are allowing 4.6 yards per rush (eighth worst in the league). Kamara has started slow but could set season highs in a lot of categories this week.
WR Deebo Samuel Over 68.5 Yards Receiving
Despite the lack of attention he is getting, Samuel is the clear leader on offense for San Francisco in 2021 and heads into Week 4 averaging 10 targets a game. Seattle’s secondary started to show some major cracks last week, as they gave up 118 yards to another big-play wideout in Justin Jefferson. Even if Samuel’s target share drops a bit, he is a great over candidate on these low prop totals, as he is second in yards after the catch this season (and led the league in average yards after the catch last year). Awesemo’s projections have been calling for a big year for Samuel since the beginning, and they remain bullish on him here, projecting him for well over 80 yards receiving. In summary, keep smashing the over in Week 4.
Bonus: Adam Thielen Under 68.5 Yards Receiving
Thielen had a hot start to the year but ceded more work to Justin Jefferson last week. The Vikings are in a tough matchup against Cleveland, who only allowed 68 yards passing in Week 3. The under on Thielen’s total projects as a strong play.
Bonus: D.J. Moore Over 78.5 Yards Receiving
Moore has one of the highest projections at wide receiver on Awesemo for Week 4, as he is expected to go for over 90 yards against Dallas. He comes in averaging over 10 targets a game and makes for another strong over target.
TE Dallas Goedert Over 33.5 Yards Receiving
Tight end is hard to predict, as many of the non-elites at this position have target shares that fluctuate a lot. Goedert is not taking over as the main target for Philadelphia, but he has been involved every week. He is playing over 65% of the snaps through three games and is averaging over 16.5 yards per catch. The matchup this week should mean well over 30 pass attempts for Philadelphia, and Goedert has such good after-catch ability that, even if his target share stays low, he could hit this over on a couple catches (as he did last week). He is a strong over candidate at a hard-to-figure position for props.
Bonus: Mike Gesicki Over 32.5 Yards Receiving
Gesicki came alive last week in Miami’s wild loss to the Raiders, with 10 catches. While one should not expect a repeat, it is clear he has a connection with backup Jacoby Brissett and projects as a solid over candidate given the low prop total.
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