Raiders at Chiefs NFL DFS Showdown: How Many Trick Passes Will Patrick Mahomes Complete Tonight? (October 10)

Monday Night Football boasts a glorious 51.5 projected point total, so let’s hope that the fantasy goodness is delivered by the bunches. Las Vegas has lost eight of their last nine regular season games against Kansas City, but that doesn’t have any bearing on tonight’s matchup.

Heading into NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.

This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 5 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Las Vegas Raiders at the Kansas City Chiefs.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 5 Monday Night Football

Las Vegas will be without linebacker Jayon Brown (hamstring) and offensive lineman Justin Herron (knee). Hunter Renfrow (concussion) should be lining up at wide receiver after missing time and tight end Darren Waller (shoulder) is also expected to play. Tight end Foster Moreau (knee) is going to be a game time decision after missing most of the practices this week.

Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker (ankle) is out and offensive lineman Trey Smith (chest) is questionable along with Juju Smith-Schuster (hamstring/quad), both being limited in practice on Saturday.

Las Vegas Raiders: 22.25 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic fantasy projections have Derek Carr as the QB13 this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Though he does not take many downfield shots, the volume and a typically high completion rate tend to help with the accumulation of yards and keeping the chains moving all game. Over the last four years, Carr has a 68.7% completion rate, so we should see some positive regression on his 61% rate this season.

Kansas City has the 21st-ranked passing DVOA and they have allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game so far. Aside from being blanked last week in Denver, Carr has at least two touchdown passes in his three other outings, with 280 or more yards in two appearances. In his last four matchups against the Chiefs, Carr has at least 250 or more passing yards and nine total touchdowns. This is a similar statistical output to what the Stokastic projections foresee on Monday Night Football for Carr.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs has, at least for the moment, one of the few “bell cow” backfield roles that exist in today’s NFL. The caveat of course is that this is very situational, as the Raiders have never been fond of using Jacobs in the passing game with any frequency. However, in each of the last two weeks, Jacobs has seen six targets, which are among the five highest games in his career. On the year, Jacobs has 70 of the 79 running back carries and 14-of-22 targets.

Undrafted journeyman fullback Jakob Johnson has been on the field more than anyone aside from Jacobs, though he has one lonely target. Between three seasons in New England and this iteration in Las Vegas, Johnson has been on the field for over 800 offensive plays, yet never had a rushing attempt. He also has only 17 targets across 41 regular season games.

Brandon Bolden, of course, has the eye of head coach Josh McDaniels, having been under his purview in New England the last few seasons. However, the backup role is shared with the well-travelled Ameer Abdullah and rookie Zamir White, who does have fourth round draft capital.

Wide Receiver

Mack Hollins has played on just over 97% of the snaps over the last two games in the absence of Hunter Renfrow. That is not particularly surprising, though in the first two weeks of the season when Renfrow was healthy, the journeyman wideout was on the field for 87% of the plays. Why are we starting this section with Hollins? Well, this is a tremendous leverage opportunity with Hollins, who will be an afterthought with Renfrow active on Monday.

Oh, and of course Davante Adams is worth a mention, as he has rolled up a whopping 47 targets through the first four weeks of the year. DraftKings has assigned him the second highest salary in the player pool, while FanDuel has him behind only the quarterbacks. Keelan Cole is the only other wideout to see any targets, but he should be a complete afterthought with Renfrow active.

Tight End

Darren Waller is dealing with a shoulder injury, but expected to play. He should be in the mix for a handful of targets, along with upside for more if the Raiders are trailing early. Foster Moreau is going to be a game time decision as he deals with a knee injury and was only able to return as a limited participant in Saturday’s practice. Jesper Horsted is the backup, though the former Chicago Bear has played only five offensive snaps this season.

Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City has just four turnovers and Las Vegas is second to last with only three takeaways. It is even worse in the sacks category, where the Raiders have just four and the Chiefs have allowed only five.

Kansas City Chiefs: 29.25 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic fantasy projections have Patrick Mahomes as the third best quarterback on DraftKings for Week 5 and he boasts the fourth best projection on FanDuel. While he has not thrown for more than 265 yards since Week 1, he does have multiple touchdowns in three tilts and his 11 passing scores were tied for the league lead heading into this game. Las Vegas has the 20th overall DVOA ranking in the Football Outsiders metric and they are 22nd against the pass.

In his last five games against the Raiders, Mahomes has averaged 28.2 completions on 41.2 attempts with 359 passing yards resulting in 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions. This includes a pair of 400 passing yard efforts and at least 340 yards in four of the five tilts. Every quarterback to face Las Vegas this season has posted multiple touchdowns, with Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson each running one in to the end zone.

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire finally outsnapped Jerick McKinnon for the first time last week, though it was rookie Isiah Pacheco who looked the best with the ball in his hands, getting 11 carries for 63 yards on 17 plays. The rookie has yet to see a pass in is direction, but we know he will be on the field to salt away this game in the fourth quarter if Kansas City is out to a large lead.

Edwards-Helaire should get around half of the workload tonight, though we know that head coach Andy Reid loves to tinker with things and more than once he has pulled a rabbit out of his hat on an island game. Who can forget the random Derrick Gore games from last year?

Wide Receiver

JuJu Smith-Schuster may not be at full-strength even if he is suited up tonight, so that makes things interesting for the other Kansas City receivers. Newcomer Marquez Valdes-Scantling and four-year veteran Mecole Hardman are the next men up. Both can score from anywhere on the field, particularly with Mahomes throwing them the ball.

Of course neither has been a model of consistency over the years, with Hardman producing just three regular season games of more than 85 yards and Valdes-Scantling having only eight, despite playing with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. If Smith-Schuster is out, rookie Skyy Moore and journeyman Justin Watson will have the potential for more time on the field. It is hard to be too excited, however, as they have combined for just 10 targets.

Tight End

Travis Kelce is leading the team in all of the major receiving categories now that Tyreek Hill has taken his talents to Miami. Backups Jody Fortson and Noah Gray have combined for a dozen opportunities, yet somehow have three touchdowns. Single-game slates are tailor made for backup tight ends, so you know what to do.

Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City tends to put a lot of pressure on opposing offenses, which leads to plenty of fantasy opportunities for the defense. This season they have 11 sacks, while Las Vegas has allowed 10 of their own. The Chiefs have just four takeaways and the Raiders have been careful with the ball, ceding only five turnovers.

Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Week 5 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
2. Travis Kelce: Should feast in this matchup.
3. Davante Adams: If Smith-Schuster is out or limited, there are plenty of punts to make Adams’ salary more palatable.
4. Hunter Renfrow: Short passes are the best passes, particularly on DraftKings.
5. Derek Carr: Always a threat for a 300 yard game on volume alone.
6. Matthew Wright: Made both his field goal attempts on Sunday Night Football in his Kansas City debut.
7. Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He will connect on a deep ball at some point this season.
8. Josh Jacobs: Salary demands a touchdown at a minimum, it is nice seeing him active in the passing game.
9. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Andy Reid just loves to get cute, high risk/high reward play.
10. Mack Hollins: Better option on DraftKings, the Las Vegas offense can easily support three receivers in catch up mode.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Darren Waller: Shoulder, Adams and targets going to Jacobs feels like strikes one, two and three.
2. JuJu Smith-Schuster: Gamers just had Tee Higgins crush their hopes and dreams, but the opposite happened as well with Hayden Hurst. Injury reporting is obfuscation at its best these days.
3. Daniel Carlson: Averaging double-digit fantasy points, but this game is likely going to be all about the touchdowns for Las Vegas.
4. Jerrick McKinnon: Viable salary saver, better on DraftKings with full-PPR.
5. Mecole Hardman: Once more unto the breach.

• Want to Learn How to Win a DraftKings Milly Maker With Stokastic Sims? Steve Buzzard Will Tell You How
• PrizePicks, Sleeper & Underdog Cheat Sheet: Best More/Less Picks Today for NFL (February 11)
• DraftKings NFL Cheat Sheet: Super Bowl Sims Picks | George Kittle
• NFL Super Bowl 58 DFS Picks: 49ers vs. Chiefs (February 11)
• NFL DFS Captain Picks for Super Bowl 58: Rashee Rice, George Kittle & More
• Stokastic DFS on Youtube

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Isiah Pacheco: DraftKings salary is lofty at $4,800 considering he does not have a target on the season. FanDuel he is a deal at $7,000 if he sees 10 carries. Lead kickoff returner.
2. Brandon Bolden: Dart throw, but has the trust of his coach.
3. Kansas City D/ST: Meh.
4. Las Vegas D/ST: Double meh.
5. Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson: Dart throws around lineup No. 70 that gets dropped in half if Smith-Schuster is out. Moore returns punts, but could easily be replaced by Hardman if the butterfingers saga continues.
6. Foster Moreau: Would head up this section if he was not injured.
7. Zamir White, Jakob Johnson, Michael Burton, Jesper Horsted and Ameer Abdullah: Abdullah at least returns kickoffs.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

[NFLPAGE]