Rams at 49ers NFL DFS Showdown: Can Cooper Kupp Carry LA to Victory on Monday Night Football? (October 3)

Monday Night Football is not lacking for any storylines, starting with head coaches Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. The two are friends and worked together in Washington as they were learning their trade. Shanahan and San Francisco had the edge until the NFC Conference Championship last year with a 7-3 record (also against the spread) and a six-game winning streak. Of course we all remember the 49ers lost and the Rams went on to win Super Bowl LVI.

Heading into NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.

This column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 4 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Rams at 49ers.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 4 Monday Night Football

Los Angeles is missing offensive linemen Brian Allen (knee) and David Edwards (concussion) with defensive backs Coble Durant (hamstring) and David Long (groin) also on the shelf.

San Francisco will be without left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) which is a big blow. Rookie running back Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) is also out. Defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot) will miss this game and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) is out as well.

Los Angeles Rams: 20.5 Points

Quarterback

In the first three games of the season, Matthew Stafford is averaging a 72.5% completion rate on 34 pass attempts per appearance. This has been a tough row to hoe as he has more than 250 passing yards only once (271) and already has five interceptions against just four touchdowns. This is double the career rate for the 14-year veteran and while it is still a small sample size, it is also a little concerning and his elbow issues may be impacting things more than he is letting on.

The 49ers have admittedly not exactly faced tough quarterback competition, but they have allowed just two passing touchdowns, both in the Chicago downpour game and Justin Fields, Geno Smith and Russell Wilson each failed to surpass 200 passing yards. The Stokastic projections have Stafford ranked as the 18th-best quarterback for Week 4, behind Smith and just ahead of Wilson.

Running Back

San Francisco once again has a solid rushing defense that ranks as the fifth best in the league according to the Football Outsiders DVOA metric. Last week Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers each played 24 snaps. Akers had the better rushing performance rolling up 61 yards and a touchdown on a dozen carries, that gives him a two week total of 27 carries for 105 yards. In that same timeframe, Henderson had 15 carries for 64 yards and a score. Neither has been particularly active in the passing game, though both are capable receivers. Jake Funk is the only other running back to see the field and he has participated in one play.

Wide Receiver

It comes as no surprise that Cooper Kupp is again dominating the passing game for Los Angeles. Last year he had what is arguably the greatest season ever for a receiver leading the league in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, first downs, yards after the catch and plays of more than 20 yards.

This season the running backs have accounted for only nine targets and tertiary receivers Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell have seven looks between them. Both Ben Skowronek (6, 3 and 4 targets) and Allen Robinson (2, 5 and 5) have seen steady, albeit small roles.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee is second on the team with 24 targets and we really need to consider him in his own tier between Kupp and the rest of the wide outs. Kendall Blanton has one target and he and Brycen Hopkins have only been on the field for 13 total plays.

Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles has been a fierce defense and is a decent source of fantasy production. They have seven sacks and seven takeaways through three games. Of course, the run first San Francisco offense limits sacks and turnovers, but we know that this unit can do a lot, with even a handful of opportunities.

San Francisco 49ers: 22.0 Points

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo has led the 49ers to six straight regular season victories over the Rams. Though he is more poised than some of his comparable counterparts, he is at best a league-average quarterback. The downside is that he actually produces sacks and turnovers at a higher than league average rate. This is just masked by Shanahan keeping pass attempts to a minimum.

Running Back

Los Angeles has a daunting run defense that rates out as the fourth best DVOA. Jeff Wilson Jr. will be the lead running back, though Deebo Samuel will see his fair share of high-leverage opportunities and of course veteran fullback Kyle Juszczyk is a red zone threat. Wilson is a capable receiver and should get most of the work between the 20s tonight. Rookie Jordan Mason and journeyman Marlon Mack will be the backups, though they are not fantasy relevant outside of those creating 100 or more lineups.

Wide Receiver

Samuel continues to play his “wide back” role to great success, though he really needs to score a touchdown to provide any profit potential on his current fantasy salary. Brandon Aiyuk has seen eight targets in each of the last two games and he has game breaking upside, along with a knack for gaining yards after that catch that make him a fantasy friendly option.

Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud III work their way into three-receiver sets and find themselves on the field when Samuel is moonlighting in his running back role. Both are viable dart throws who should be good for two or three targets.

Tight End

George Kittle made his debut last week and saw five targets bringing in four for 28 yards. Since the start of last year, the veteran tight end has been a boom-or-bust fantasy option. In his last 15 regular season games he has 40 or fewer yards eight times with 90 or more yards five times. It is important to note that his median projection does not account for this wide range of outcomes.

Defense/Special Teams

San Francisco has at least two sacks in every game this season with four takeaways. It is not hard to envision them harassing Stafford into a pick-six or a scoop and score in front of their raucous home crowd.

Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Week 4 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Cooper Kupp: Rightfully carries the highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel and it is not even close.
2. Tyler Higbee: One of the better point-per-dollar options on DraftKings and it appears he is going overlooked on FanDuel with a middling projection for his popularity as a flex option.
3. Deebo Samuel: Best point-per-dollar option on FanDuel coming in just ahead of the quarterbacks.
4. Jimmy Garoppolo: Healthy and he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder with Trey Lance out for the season.
5. Matthew Stafford: Tender elbow limiting mid-week reps, could be the reason for his elevated interception rate.
6. Robbie Gould: We need the salary savings on both sites, past his prime – but still golden from inside 45 yards.
7. Matt Gay: Pro Bowler last season, perfect on the year and 6-of-7 from 50 or more yards in his last 27 games.
8. Jeff Wilson Jr: Should see a heavy workload outside of the red zone, banking on volume to keep him in the top-1o.
9. Ben Skowronek: Discount dandy, should see a handful of targets and maybe we get lucky with a 20 yard gain among them.
10. Brandon Aiyuk: Appropriate salary, can score from anywhere on the field, but this is a tough defense on all three levels.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. San Francisco D/ST: Despite the star power at the top of the player pool, this game looks to be a slugfest.
2. Los Angeles D/ST: Would flip-flop with their counterparts if the game was in LA.
3. Cam Akers: Could easily be out-snapped and out touched by Henderson.
4. Darrell Henderson: Could easily be relegated to half a dozen or fewer opportunities.
5. George Kittle: No longer a “safe” option, but the potential upside is undeniable.

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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Allen Robinson: Salary knocks him below Skowronek as he is still a little behind in learning this offense and gaining a rapport with Stafford. This likely will flip by the holidays.
2. Jauan Jennings: Nice salary on DraftKings at $2,000 – unfortunately he is well down the pecking order.
3. Ray-Ray McCloud, Tutu Atwell and Brandon Powell: Backup receivers, though each should have a target or two. McCloud and Powell each handle all aspects of the return game for their respective squads.
4. Kyle Juszczyk: Will be on the field a fair amount, likely blocking most plays.
5. Jordan Mason and Marlon Mack: Prefer the rookie and it would be best if one of this duo was inactive.
6. Jake Funk, Brycen Hopkins, Kendall Blanton, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley and Marcus Johnson: Just say no!

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