We (hopefully) all survived the Thanksgiving slate and, much like your family’s endless leftovers, we have even more NFL DFS picks to dig through for Week 13. We get the return of Patrick Mahomes to the main slate with a prime matchup at home against the Raiders, some really chalky high-quality plays like Davante Adams and Christian McCaffrey, and some guys who could be due for bounce backs in very winnable spots. So let’s go game by game as we hit on all the top picks in Week 13’s NFL DFS Slant and Go!
No Victory Laps and Walks of Shame this week since we’re putting this one out on Friday and I’m short on time (let’s just say: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are not invited to any future get togethers in summation). So let’s get right into the top NFL DFS picks in the Week 13 Slant and Go.
San Francisco 49ers (20 implied points) at Baltimore Ravens (25.5 implied points)
Top SF NFL DFS picks:
- Baltimore’s run defense is solid as they allow just 88 rushing yards per game with 4.3 YPR. But San Francisco should dedicate themselves to running the ball and I’d be a little intrigued by Tevin Coleman in this spot. San Francisco runs the ball at a 51% clip and has found decent success even in spots that aren’t great on paper. Given the risk having the Ravens offense on the field poses, San Francisco should attempt to control the clock with vintage smash mouth football. They have a puncher’s chance of making it work with an innovative rushing attack.
- I don’t think Jimmy Garoppolo will survive Baltimore’s 45% blitz rate and 83 coverage grade. He’s a good QB in ideal situations but under duress he’s had a 4.5% INT rate and 20% sack rate. Baltimore’s coverage group has rounded into full health and I don’t think he’s the man to beat them right now.
- I wouldn’t rule out George Kittle despite my lack of Garoppolove. Baltimore offers a 9% boost to TEs according to DVOA and Kittle maintains a 26% target share. He’s not worth the premium price but he could be a pay up to be contrarian play.
Top BAL NFL DFS picks:
- Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability, now up to over 11 attempts per game, gives him a solid floor in any spot. And I wouldn’t hate having some exposure with his price down and under 10% ownership. But the pass game is really going to suffer given the oppressive Niners defense that allows just 137 passing yards per game. The 49ers allow scores on just 21% of opponent drives, the best mark on the slate. It feels like a game that could end up as a rock fight. That wouldn’t preclude me from Naked Lamar or even some stacks with Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews. But it’s not a core focus.
- As is always the case in these playoff-style games, I like Mark Ingram. San Francisco’s run defense is their weakest part as they allow 4.7 YPR. Ingram could be the path that Baltimore takes with really tight coverage that could make Lamar’s life much harder with his receivers.
Washington Redskins (14.8 implied points) at Carolina Panthers (24.8 implied points)
Top WAS NFL DFS picks:
- Carolina’s weaker against the run with 5 YPR and 127.5 rushing yards per game allowed. But the split backfield with Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson makes that tough. Both had 10 carries in their last game and it’s a fairly even split. I wouldn’t mind a sprinkling of both players but neither feels like one to trust.
- Dwayne Haskins has earned the opposite of trust with a 55% completion rate, 6% INT rate, and 14% sack rate on the year. That might not keep Terry McLaurin from producing despite a tough Carolina secondary across from him. McLaurin saw 12 targets on 34 routes last week, five of which were targets of 20+ yards. Haskins might have a hard time throwing a ball into a lake but McLaurin has potential to do something if he sees that preponderance of opportunity. His 210 air yards led the league in Week 12.
Top CAR NFL DFS picks:
- Christian McCaffrey is in another perfectly solid spot and his chalk ownership accounts for that. Washington is mediocre versus the rush with a 70 grade from PFF but they allow 138 yards per game on the ground. They’ll try to muck it up as best they can but I have no issue playing McCaffrey other than his outlandish price.
- DJ Moore’s price has slowly crept up and this is another fine spot to look towards him. It’s honestly not a bad spot for Kyle Allen stacks that include him given the 70.4% completion rate and 5.7% passing TD rate that Washington allows. Maybe the move is to go to Allen, Moore, and Greg Olsen with the 31% DVOA boost Washington allows to TEs as a way to get away from McCaffrey in some lineups.
- The Panthers defense also should have decent opportunity against Haskins. He’s not good, they cover well, and Washington’s run game may not be able to reliably get going. That’s an opportunity for Carolina at home to cause some havoc.
Tennessee Titans (20.5 implied points) at Indianapolis Colts (22.5 implied points)
Top TEN NFL DFS picks:
- Ryan Tannehill had a fluky Week 12 against Jacksonville with 33.4 FP thanks to two rushing scores despite just 18 pass attempts. I don’t think he gets away with that versus the Colts and I’d really avoid point chasing him this week. I could play a little AJ Brown but he ran just 17 routes last week. It’s a tough margin for these guys with Tennessee’s current approach.
- There are narratives being spun about Derrick Henry’s end of reason success with his size and beaten down defenses across from him. Putting that aside, he may be in position to continue his hot run against the Colts’ 68 graded run defense by PFF. The Colts allow just 97 rushing yards per game and Henry’s lack of pass game involvement is a risk. But the man has 159 and 188 rushing yards in his last two games with two TDs in each and I wouldn’t fade him fully even with his price on the way up.
Top IND NFL DFS picks:
- This game seems like a slog based on the Vegas totals but I don’t hate the idea of a little bit of Jacoby Brissett. Tennessee allows 256 passing yards per game with just a 68 coverage grade from PFF. TY Hilton being out and Eric Ebron going to IR makes it a bit tougher but we could see a more concentrated target share. Brissett with Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle has some leverage upside with ownership slated to go to the emerging Jonathan Williams.
- Williams was a monster versus Houston in Week 12 with 26 rushes for 104 yards and a score plus three catches for 17 yards. Tennessee has a more passable run defense with a 90 grade from PFF. But Indianapolis has one of the best run blocking lines in the league. I’d match the field on Williams right now with sub 15% ownership with a really massive workload that he’s earned with solid efforts.
Green Bay Packers (25.8 implied points) at NY Giants (19.3 implied points)
Top GB NFL DFS picks
- Davante Adams will be one of the chalkiest plays of the week with a great matchup and his price down. I have no issue with it given his almost 10 targets per game and the Giants allowing 8.1 YPP. Adams is a top play of the week with over 10 targets in each of his last three games.
- The “pivot”, if there even is one, would be to go to Aaron Jones and the run game. The Giants are better against the rush with a 79 grade from PFF but Jones has bounced back well from dud games all year long. He was embarrassed versus San Francisco with 3.8 FP on 13 rushes for 38 yards and could easily see work even if Adams rips the Giants apart early.
- Aaron Rodgers’ lofty price isn’t the best but I don’t mind him. A full stack with anyone besides Adams seems risky given how Rodgers spreads the ball around. But he can run for a score or throw some one-off darts to guys that I don’t mind playing him just with Adams (or even Adams and Jones/Jamaal Williams).
Top NYG NFL DFS picks:
- It’s not a bad spot for Saquon Barkley given the 126 rushing yards per game and 4.8 YPR GB allows. They have just a 62 run defense grade from PFF. That is better than the Giants’ 55 run blocking grade but it still could be bad enough for the Giants to mash for just one week.
- I have less faith in the pass game. Golden Tate will be out and that could open things up for Sterling Shepard, who should return to his preferred slot role. Darius Slayton will see decent coverage but he’s had a nice vibe with fellow rookie Daniel Jones It actually could be a sneaky stack if you ignore the fact that Green Bay has more talent in their defense and Jones mostly kind of stinks. Even Kaden Smith isn’t out of the question after he had 39 routes filling in for Evan Engram. People won’t be on this stack much so it wouldn’t take much to get above the field on the chance they perform.
NY Jets (22.3 implied points) at Cincinnati Bengals (19.3 implied points)
Top NYJ NFL DFS picks:
- Sam Darnold has started to come on with 21.7, 26.4, and 31.2 FP in his last three games. He has at least 29 pass attempts in each and has been efficient, something he should be able to do again with Cincinnati’s poor 8.7 YPP allowed and a 47 coverage grade from PFF. His price isn’t the best but Darnold could have a nice day again.
- The target shares with Darnold are spread out enough to make stacks less appealing. Robby Anderson led the team with 30 routes in Week 12 with Jamison Crowder just behind him with 29, followed by Demaryius Thomas’s 27. Ryan Griffin had 19. Anderson saw two deep targets, something that definitely gives him more upside if the Jets’ O-line can hold up better than they have all year long. The stack is worth some stabs but it’s not pretty.
- Meanwhile, this may be a top LeVeon Bell The same poor O-line hurts him but Cincinnati has allowed 166 rushing yards per game. Bell saw 12 carries in Week 12, limited due to the blowout of Oakland, but had five catches for five targets that were his most since Week 9. Bell’s price is high enough that the ownership could be oppressed on him despite a nice spot on paper.
Top CIN NFL DFS picks:
- Andy Dalton makes his opposite-of-triumphant return with Ryan Finley completely capable of being an NFL or XFL QB at his current ability level. Dalton has a decent opportunity against a Jets D who maybe is a bit overrated as a pass-game funnel. The Jets now allow just 243 passing yards per game with a respectable 74 coverage grade from PFF. They’ve allowed some big games so Dalton at an exceedingly low price could have upside. I’m just not sure I’d trust it at all given what we’ve seen from Dalton on the year. He has just a 2.7% TD rate and 6.7 yards per attempt.
- Tyler Boyd would be the obvious target if you wanted to trot Dalton out there. He had 100 yard games with Finley so he could do it with probably anyone. Auden Tate runs the second most routes and he’s cheap enough to take a shot with given his 6.9 targets per game. Alex Erickson is also comparably involved with just four less routes run than Tate.
- Even though the Jets’ pass D may be better than advertised, their run D is as good as people say. They give up just 3 YPR and 78 rushing yards per game. Joe Mixon has been more involved lately and he’d be very contrarian to go with in his spot. I don’t trust it at all with a not good run blocking line for Cincy but it’s a play.
Cleveland Browns (20 implied points) at Pittsburgh Steelers (19 implied points)
Top CLE NFL DFS picks:
- With the Browns riding high, their prices are on the way up…and I have zero interest in any of them. This is a good Pittsburgh defense that generates a strong 31% pressure rate, the thing that’s killed Baker Mayfield and co. time and again. Nick Chubb could get going on the ground in adverse conditions but Kareem Hunt’s versatility cuts into that upside too. I could see one-off stabs at Odell Beckham or Jarvis Landry but I want nothing at much depth here.
Top PIT NFL DFS picks:
- Devlin Hodges likely stinks less than Mason Rudolph but it’s hard to say that with much confidence. That said, I’d take a stab at him this week against a fairly weak Cleveland defense. Cleveland allows a 5.1% passing TD rate with a not good 62 coverage grade from PFF.
- No James Conner or Juju Smith-Schuster gives you cheap targets with more upside than their prices too. Jaylen Samuels has his workload cut into by the run-focused Benny Snell but Samuels could easily see more pass game work if the matchup fits. I prefer Snell overall but I can’t rule out more safe checkdowns for Hodges. Similarly, James Washington and Vance McDonald saw 30 routes while Diontae Johnson saw 27 last game with no Juju. These guys can certainly get new life breathed into them if Hodges has anything more than Rudolph showed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24.5 implied points) at Jacksonville Jaguars (23 implied points)
Top TB NFL DFS picks:
- I hate him as a real life and fantasy player given his litany of mistakes but it’s not a bad Jameis Winston spot here. Jacksonville doesn’t allow a ton of passing yards on paper with 222 per game but they can certainly give up more with a 52 coverage grade from PFF. Chris Godwin is now exponentially higher priced than Mike Evans but much less owned. Based on the data we’ve seen this year, it could be a situation where Godwin is more valuable with Tampa possibly working with a lead. Evans is still viable regardless but has seen his best success with Tampa trailing.
- Ronald Jones could have a monster game if he actually sees the work you’d think a lead back should get. Jacksonville’s 5.4 YPR allowed are the worst in the league. Jones has seen at least 11 carries recently in games where Tampa Bay isn’t getting smoked and he can certainly get going here if he gets the work.
Top JAX NFL DFS picks:
- Nick Foles is in a very nice spot given the 290 passing yards per game that Tampa Bay allows. Foles hasn’t been great in his limited 2019 sample with 6.2 yards per attempt and a low 2.9% passing TD rate. But he has explosive weapons like DJ Chark and Chris Conley who see deep targets while underneath weapon Dede Westbrook also saw nine targets on 52 routes in their last game. I’ll have stacks with all of the above this week.
- Leonard Fournette is in a much tougher spot but he should have some ownership on him. Fournette’s 11 targets and nine catches last week were season highs and he had 24 rushes to go with them. He could very well have a McCaffreyesque effort despite Tampa’s solid run defense with some additional downside because of his low TD rates (that seem desperately due for positive regression).
- I also wouldn’t totally sleep on Nick O’Leary given the 22% boost Tampa allows to TEs according to DVOA. O’Leary saw four catches for 36 yards on 24 routes last week and he’s likely to remain Jacksonville’s only healthy TE.
Philadelphia Eagles (27.5 implied points) at Miami Dolphins (17.5 implied points)
Top PHI NFL DFS picks:
- Jordan Howard looks to be sidelined again with his shoulder injury and this is the week I’d be willing to go to Miles Sanders. Sanders saw 12 carries and five targets in Philly’s debacle versus Seattle. He’ll get a chance for much more with Miami allowing 148 rushing yards per game and a 46% DVOA boost to pass catching RBs.
- Alshon Jeffery practiced in full this week and he could be in for a big spot given Miami’s even worse pass defense. They give up 8 YPP with a 7.4% passing TD rate. Jeffery’s return hurts Zach Ertz’s floor but he and Nelson Agholor could see more upside thanks to this cake matchup.
- I have interest in Carson Wentz in one of his worst games of his career as a result of all of the above. This is the get-well spot Philadelphia has needed for weeks and Carson could feast.
- It’s worth noting that Ertz has been limited in practice with a hamstring injury. His absence would push Dallas Goedert’s opportunity up but really the entire pass-game here deserves exposure with how easily Philly could find scores.
Top MIA NFL DFS picks:
- I know Allen Hurns got there recently for our pal Ben Rasa in the Millionaire Maker but this remains a DeVante Parker or bust situation for me. Parker has at least 10 targets in his last three games, though Hurns’ 46 routes and Mike Gesicki’s 44 were just behind Parker’s 49 last time out.
LA Rams (25.3 implied points) at Arizona Cardinals (22.3 implied points)
Top LAR NFL DFS picks:
- Many people will treat this like a Jared Goff get well spot given the 298 passing yards per game and 6.9% passing TD rate that Arizona allows. And it may well be. But Goff and this brutal offensive line are not going to like the 41% blitz rate Arizona brings. Arizona’s 38 coverage grade will offer some throwing windows for Goff but it wouldn’t shock me to see him disappoint if his ownership gets too high. I don’t mind some exposure but I would really avoid locking Goff in.
- Cooper Kupp could have his first good game in a while regardless of Goff’s upside. Kupp saw 10 targets in the Rams’ destruction at the hands of Baltimore last time out, just ahead of Robert Woods’ nine. These guys look like my two preferred targets in stacks or as one-offs. I don’t have a lot of faith in Brandin Cooks’ ability to get competent deep throws downfield with the blitzes Arizona should throw at Goff.
- Tyler Higbee could see more opportunity if Gerald Everett misses with a knee injury. The TE spot against Arizona has been a mostly fool proof one and Higbee is at flat minimum prices.
- Todd Gurley isn’t out of the question with the Cardinals mostly an average run defense at best. Gurley will also have some issues with the Cardinals’ blitz frequency given the bad Rams O line. But the Rams have given him upwards of 28 carries a couple weeks ago versus Chicago and that could be one path to success with Goff’s failures behind the porous line.
Top ARI NFL DFS picks:
- Even though Lamar Jackson crushed these guys on the Rams defense, I’m not sure I love much on Arizona. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Christian Kirk get going again but his high ownership comes with some risk if the Rams D shows up better here. Not many teams will handle them as effortlessly as Baltimore did and I don’t think this offensive line or Kyler Murray are as equipped to thrash.
- Kenyan Drake is in a decent spot given the Rams’ 51 graded run defense who still comes off solidly on paper thanks to allowing just 3.7 YPR. David Johnson didn’t even touch the ball in the last game with his injury status and maybe the bye got him healthy. Chase Edmonds is also expected to return. Playing any of the backs is a risk but the workload seems most secure for Drake.
LA Chargers (20.8 implied points) at Denver Broncos (17.8 implied points)
Top LAC NFL DFS picks:
- A 91 graded run defense for Denver and an 80 graded coverage group don’t give me much reason to like the Chargers. I could see wanting Melvin Gordon given his big workload since Shane Steichen took over playcalling duties. But outside of an overpriced Hunter Henry, I don’t really see much NFL DFS use for anyone besides those two.
Top DEN NFL DFS picks:
- Brandon Allen and Drew Lock have split first team reps in practice this week and whoever emerges is in an intriguing spot. The Chargers allow opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of passes with a low 14% blitz rate. With a high-level receiver like Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant also showing some big play ability on the year, I’d be willing to stack those guys with whomever emerges from the pack.
- It’s not a great run game matchup but the Broncos’ commitment to the run with Phillip Lindsay looks appealing. He hasn’t broken 20 FP since Week 5 but that just so happens to be a matchup against the Chargers in which he scored 27.7 FP on 114 rushing yards with a score and four catches for 33 yards. He’ll be decently owned but the price on Lindsay is appealing in this matchup.
- I also wouldn’t totally sleep on Tim Patrick after he busted as a semi-popular play last week. He ran 23 routes, tied with DaeSean Hamilton and ahead of Fant’s 20, and has big play upside that could materialize given the iffy Chargers coverage.
Oakland Raiders (20.5 implied points) at Kansas City (30.5 implied points)
Top OAK NFL DFS picks:
- Josh Jacobs’ price is down and I could see taking a shot on him with the bad Kansas City run defense. Oakland’s only shot to keep the game under control is to lean on him similarly to how Tennessee used Derrick Henry a few weeks ago. They showed commitment to the run even when it didn’t make sense against the Jets so it’s possible they do that here.
- Darren Waller is more appealing in this spot where Oakland will likely play from behind. Kansas City has a 21.4% DVOA decrease on production to TEs but Waller can see enough targets where it doesn’t matter. He and Tyrell Williams will likely have to do something given how many points Kansas City can hang on their defense with more secure NFL DFS opportunity thanks to Hunter Renfrow
- Patrick Mahomes is going to be well-owned but he looks like a stellar play in this spot against an Oakland defense he’s trounced before. Oakland doesn’t get pressure with just a 20% rate and they blitz at a low 18% rate. To top it off, they can’t cover with just a 55 coverage grade from PFF that allows 7.8 YPP and a 7% passing TD rate. Mahomes is in a spot deserving of chalk status.
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- The tournament moves seems to be to pay up for Tyreek Hill with him projected for under 5% ownership due to his high price. I might take him in stacks with Mahomes or as a one-off with other QBs to attempt to get into a lineup construction with less ownership. But he’s the clear top option.
- Sammy Watkins is fine with a very reasonable price but definitely less of an explosive option. Travis Kelce is ungodly expensive but his workload seems secure and he certainly has big touchdown upside. The move is probably to mix and match these guys with other top plays.
- Damien Williams has been ruled out for Week 13 so LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams will get the majority of the workload. Both have reasonable but not dirt cheap prices and there’s no real issue with either. Darrel’s pass game work could give him nice upside if the game fully breaks his way but McCoy has a lot of opportunity as the back who’ll get the first shot and likely the goal line work.
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