Week 9 Sunday Night Football may be a lopsided affair on paper as well as on the field, but there is still a DFS puzzle to be solved and prizes to be won.
Heading into NFL Week 9 Sunday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 9 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 9 Sunday Night Football | Titans-Chiefs
Tennessee is hopeful that quarterback Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is able to take the field. Fullback Tory Carter (neck), safety Amani Hooker (shoulder) and rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks (toe) are all out. Defensive lineman Kevin Strong (ankle) and linebacker Bud Dupree (illness) are questionable.
Kansas City is relatively healthy with only tight end Jody Fortson (quad/illness) listed as unavailable and no other player carrying an injury designation heading into tonight’s action.
Tennessee Titans: 16.75 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic fantasy projections are nonplussed with whomever is under center tonight and currently the projections have rookie Malik Willis. Ryan Tannehill missed last week with an ankle injury and while he did make the trip to Kansas City, he is a game-time decision at best. Tannehill did get in two limited practices, but we know that could be a basic as a walkthrough or some sideline throws.
On the season, in five games, the 34-year-old signal-caller has 1,097 passing yards, six aerial scores and three interceptions adding another touchdown and 29 rushing yards on 19 carries. Tannehill at least makes the passing game somewhat of a threat, while Willis in theory brings rushing upside, though he had just a dozen yards on five totes last week in his start against the Texans.
Running Back
Derrick Henry leads the league with 107.9 rushing yards per game and he has seven touchdowns, along with five plays of 20 or more yards. The All-Pro also has seen at least three targets in three of his last five games and his 18 on the year have him on pace to set career best across the board. Dontrell Hilliard should be on the field for around a quarter of the snaps and he usually gets a couple targets per game with a carry or two. Hassan Haskins is unlikely to see much if any work unless something befalls one of the other two running backs during the game.
Wide Receiver
Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Cody Hollister are purely lottery tickets if Willis is leading the offense, though they become neutral roster fillers if it is Tannehill at the helm. Last week Willis attempted only 10 passes which was just under half of the volume typically seen from Tannehill. Woods leads the team with 34 targets, injured rookie Treylon Burks (toe) had 16 in his four games and then it falls off a cliff with Westbrook-Ikhine getting five in the last three games and Hollister getting three total looks in the last two.
Tight End
Austin Hooper is the best receiving tight end, while Geoff Swaim and Chigoziem Okonkwo are the best blockers. Swaim is at least on the field 70% of the time, but he has just nine targets on the season which is one more than Okonkwo who has played on half as many snaps. Hooper has at least one target in every game, though the 14 total on the season are less than inspiring to say the least.
Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City has ceded only a dozen sacks which is the third fewest in the league, though Tennessee does have three sacks in each of their last four games. Andy Reid’s offense has only eight turnovers through seven games, while the Titans have 11 take aways in their seven tilts.
Kansas City Chiefs: 29.25 Points
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes is averaging 308.4 passing yards per game which trails only Josh Allen (314.0). The Wizard also leads the league with 20 touchdown passes and he is behind only Tua Tagovailoa in the passer rating category and his QBR is the third best behind the two aforementioned field generals. Tennessee is in the middle of the pack against the pass, though they do rank first in rushing DVOA per Football Outsiders. Kansas City does not need any prompting to lean on the pass and we should expect ample opportunities tonight for Mahomes.
Running Back
Rookie Isiah Pacheco is the nominal starter, but he has been outsnapped (19, 10) the last two weeks by veteran Jerick McKinnon (28, 29) and perennial fantasy tease Clyde Edwards-Helaire (17, 28). McKinnon is better in pass protection and he has three targets in each of his last three games. Edwards-Helaire has improved greatly as a receiver, though he has one total target in the last two games. Pacheco is an afterthought with his only two targets of the season coming in Week6.
McKinnon stands out on both DraftKings ($3,000) and FanDuel ($8,000), though he is still looking for his first touchdown or double-digit fantasy performance of the season. Edwards-Helaire is priced like he is the lead back on DraftKings ($7,000), though even with a touchdown in his last game, he has not cracked double-digit fantasy points since Week 4.
Pacheco is the anomaly on FanDuel ($11,000) holding the same salary cap hit as Edwards-Helaire, but he is $600 less than McKinnon on DraftKings ($2,400). There is no logic to an Andy Reid backfield and any of these players could score twice or all three could tally single digit fantasy totals yet again.
Wide Receiver
JuJu Smith-Schuster leads the wideouts with 48 targets and he has eight in five of his seven appearances. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman are on the upswing and both are live for a long touchdown. However, if they really were the answer, would Kansas City have traded for Kadarius Toney? The former Giant likely will be on the field for 20 or so plays and he is a wild card option.
Skyy “Butterfingers” Moore lost another fumble on a punt return last week and he could easily be banished to the bench. Justin Watson is also likely to lose snaps to Toney, though he should still be in the mix for at least one target and at $600 on DraftKings there is mild value for those constructing 100 or more lineups.
Tight End
Travis Kelce of course is the defacto WR1 and he has been a fantasy stalwart now that Tyreek Hill has taken his talents to South Beach. Kelce is tied for the league lead with Stefon Diggs as each has visited the end zone seven times this season. Kelce’s per game rates are also in the top 10 for most relevant receiving metrics.
Noah Gray should see a couple of targets, though they could just as easily go to Jody Fortson though he is out this week, so that means Michael Burton will be the backup, backup tight end. While Gray has 14 compared to Fortson’s five, the latter did pop up on the radar with two targets last week.
On the season, the non-Kelce tight ends have combined for at at least two opportunities in every game and they have recorded three or more looks in four of the seven games. Backup tight ends thrive in island games, that is the law!
Defense/Special Teams
Even with their run heavy approach, the Titans are allowing 2.4 sacks per game. That is right around where the Kansas City defense is as well and of course this unit plays much better at home in front of their raucous fans.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy For Titans-Chiefs
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 9 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings For Titans-Chiefs
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Patrick Mahomes:Â Mahomies Unite!
- Travis Kelce:Â Worthy of the multiplier slot on all NFL DFS sites.
- Travis Henry:Â This top three will be the core for most lineups tonight.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster:Â The volume has been there and he has back-to-back games with 100 yards and a touchdown.
- Harrison Butker:Â Kansas City rarely has to settle for field goals.
- Malik Willis/Ryan Tannehill: It does not feel great either way, Willis still a dart throw if Tannehill starts with elevated in-game injury risk as well as mop up duty if Kansas City lights up the score board.
- Kansas City D/ST:Â Fortunately DraftKings ($5,800) gave them a price bump.
- Randy Bullock:Â Four games with zero or one field goal attempt, two games with at least three.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling:Â Can score from half a field away.
- Robert Woods:Â Theoretically the WR1 for the Titans, better bet if Tannehill is under center. Returns punts, if Kansas City ever stalls out on a drive.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Titans-Chiefs
- Mecole Hardman:Â Could easily flipflop this ranking with Valdes-Scantling.
- Jerrick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco:Â Do you feel lucky? Pacheco returns kickoffs.
- Dontrell Hilliard:Â Should see half a dozen opportunities, returns kickoffs as well.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Justin Watson: Meh.
- Kadarius Toney:Â It will be interesting to see where his popularity lands with a likely limited role if he does suit up. Could replace Moore as the punt returner.
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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Titans-Chiefs
- Austin Hooper, Geoff Swaim, Noah Gray, Michael Burton and Chigoziem Okonkwo: Island Game TEs, LEGGO!
- Tennessee D/ST:Â Need to catch lightning in a bottle.
- Cody Hollister:Â Minimum $200 on DraftKings makes everything else fall into place, though it creates an overlapping lineup construction.
- Skyy Moore, Chris Conley, Hassan Haskins and Mason Kinsey: Just say no!
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