Week 18 Saturday Night Football brings a matchup with major playoff implications. Whichever team wins will get a ticket into the postseason. If Jacksonville loses, they could still sneak in with help on Sunday. If Tennessee loses, the season is over.
Saturday and Sunday should bring plenty of NFL Week 18 excitement and Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites, featuring these Bills-Bengals DFS picks.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 18 Saturday Night Football slate featuring the Tennessee Titans at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 18 SNF | Titans-Jaguars
Tennessee Titans: 16.75 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic Projections are not being kind to the Tennessee quarterback this week. Of course that is really no surprise with Ryan Tannehill out and rookie Malik Willis looking wildly overmatched and managing just 235 passing yards in three starts. The third round selection out of Liberty added another 95 yards on the ground in these contests, but still managed only one rushing touchdown in total.
The Titans turned to Josh Dobbs last week after signing him off the Lions practice squad just before Christmas. Dobbs was a fourth round pick by Pittsburgh in the 2017 NFL draft and he has bounced around the league, appearing in only half a dozen games prior to his Week 17 starting debut. The 27-year-old was 20 of 39 for 232 yards against Dallas with one touchdown and one interception. Tennessee was resting most of their key players in anticipation of Saturday’s matchup, which of course is for all the marbles.
It will be interesting to see what transpires tonight with the Jaguars having the second worst passing DVOA, but the 12th best rushing DVOA per Football Outsiders. Expect a conservative game plan with coach Mike Vrabel likely picking his spots for a trick play or deceptive offensive wrinkle in this win or go home matchup.
Running Back
Derrick Henry was held out last week since the results of the game had no impact on the Tennessee postseason hopes and dreams. We know that the Titans will be counting on Henry to save the season, but of course the Jacksonville defense is going to be keying on him all game. Ideally Dobbs is able to take a little pressure off Henry by keeping the Jaguars from overloading the line and box, but that very well could be wishful thinking.
Jacksonville has allowed only three running backs to reach the 100 yard milestone, with the last being Henry (17/121/1) back in Week 14. Henry has seen a career high 40 targets this season, but of course this is the first time he will be playing with Dobbs.
Rookie Hassan Haskins will serve as the backup, though it is hard to see him with more than a handful of low-leverage touches. Keep in mind that Dontrell Hilliard (neck) is on the injured reserve, so the third running back will be either Julius Chestnut who had 15 offensive snaps prior to last week and Jonathan Ward who saw five snaps last week in his only action with the Titans and in the two preceeding seasons, he played in only seven games, all with Arizona after being undrafted after four seasons at Central Michigan.
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Wide Receiver
Rookie Treylon Burks has had an injury marred season and things just got worse as he was only able to get in one limited practice this week while dealing with a groin injury. Keep an eye on his status and even if he is active, he is unlikely to be at full health. Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will be the main receiving options and neither is going to be putting any fear into the defense. If Burks is out or limited, veteran Chris Conley or second-year man Racey McMath are likely to each see 15-20 snaps.
Tight End
Tennessee typically has four active tight ends each week and they all see the field. Austin Hooper and Chigoziem Okonkwo each project for a handful of targets and Geoff Swaim is the only other player at this position to get any looks with just seven targets since the Week 6 bye.
Defense/Special Teams
Only twice in the last seven games have the Titans logged more than one sack and they have just half a dozen takeaways in this timeframe. Similarly, the Jaguars have allowed five total sacks in their last five games and they rarely cede turnovers with nine interceptions and 12 fumbles lost for the year.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 23.25 Points
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence has been much improved in his sophomore campaign and the lost season under Urban Meyer seems like it was a lifetime ago. Lawrence is just outside of the top five quarterbacks this week in the full player pool and he is clearly someone to build around tonight in the single-game format. Defenses have had to respect Lawrence as a runner as he has five touchdowns an 294 yards on just 58 carries. He also has surpassed 300 aerial yards on four occasions and has authored eight multi-touchdown games. Tennessee has the fifth worst passing DVOA, which bodes well for the young signal-caller.
Running Back
Travis Etienne has been solid ever since taking over the backfield with veteran James Robinson being dealt to the Jets after Week 6. The second-year runner from Clemson has been efficient and productive, though his workload has been far from voluminous. A reasonable expectation for Saturday’s matchup is a dozen or so carries with a handful of targets and a better than even chance of reaching the end zone.
JaMycal Hasty will be on the field for most of the snaps vacated by Etienne and by proxy he should receive half a handful of opportunities. Snoop Conner will serve as the third back, though it would be a shock to see him with more than a carry or two if the game remains competitive.
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Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones have been the main targets for Lawrence, with Marvin Jones Jr. always lurking as a potential deep threat. Jamal Agnew and Tim Jones round out the receiving options, though they project for a combined 1.5 targets.
The win is the most important thing for the Jaguars, but it is worth noting that both Kirk and Zay Jones have attainable contract incentives. Kirk will receive a $500,000 bonus if he get two catches and he could get another $500,000 for reaching 1,100 receiving yards, currently he is 91 yards short of this pay day. Jones needs two receptions for a $250,000 bonus and if he can get the 98 receiving yards needed to reach the 900 yard milestone on the season, another $500,000 awaits.
Tight End
Evan Engram finally had a season similar to his rookie year all the way back in 2017. Thus far he has career highs with 69 receptions and 739 yards and his four touchdowns are his second most in a season. The bulk of this production came in a three game stretch starting with Week 14, during which he totaled 26 receptions, 337 yards and three scores on 32 targets. Of course the downside is there as well with half of his 16 outings resulting in 30 or fewer receiving yards.
Dan Arnold, Chris Manhertz and Luke Farrell will all see the field, however, over the last three games this trio has two combined targets – both going to Arnold.
Defense/Special Teams
Jacksonville is above average at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, resulting in five consecutive multi-sack games. In this stretch they have also accounted for eight takeaways, evenly split between interceptions and fumble recoveries. Despite a run-heavy offense, Tennessee has allowed 45 sacks which is the seventh most in the leauge.
Saturday Night Football Titans-Jaguars DFS Single-Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
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Week 18 Saturday Night Football Titans-Jaguarss DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Titans-Jaguars
- Trevor Lawrence:Â Should have a hand in most Jacksonville touchdowns.
- Travis Etienne:Â Solid $2,000 discount over Henry on FanDuel and the full-PPR scoring system on DraftKings gives him the nod there.
- Derrick Henry:Â This is all about the touchdowns as everyone knows he projects for a hefty workload.
- Christian Kirk and Zay Jones:Â Coinflip as each has had multiple 20-plus fantasy point games. Jones has a solid discount on DraftKings, but that also has him as the more popular choice.
- Evan Engram:Â Darned if we do, darned if we don’t.
- Joshua Dobbs:Â One of two starting quarterbacks in the player pool.
- Jacksonville D/ST:Â Four straight double-digit fantasy point performances, including Week 14 in Tennessee.
- Riley Patterson:Â Tonight will be the 24th game of his career, 14 of 17 in the 40-49 yard range over his two seasons.
- Robert Woods:Â In his last 12 games he has 10 or more fantasy points twice, yes that is in full-PPR formats.
- Randy Bullock:Â Not much for distance with only two attempts from 50-plus yards in his last 30 games.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Titans-Jaguars
- JaMycal Hasty:Â Stand alone value and upside if something befalls Etienne.
- Austin Hooper and Chigoziem Okonkwo:Â Former gets the discount, particularly on DraftKings, latter is a late-season DFS darling who will be overrepresented in tournaments.
- Treylon Burks:Â All comes down to his health.
- Marvin Jones Jr.:Â We know he will be on the field for around 60% of the offensive plays and he is one blown coverage away from standing in the end zone.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine:Â A whole lotta meh.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Titans-Jaguars
- Hassan Haskins:Â Hard to know what to expect from the rookie.
- Jamal Agnew:Â Gets backfield snaps now and then.
- Racey McMath and Chris Conley:Â Better options if Burks is inactive.
- Dan Arnold, Chris Manhertz, Geoff Swaim and Luke Farrell: Third string tight ends with a collective 1.5 target projection.
- Snoop Conner, Tim Jones, Julius Chestnut, Jonathan Ward and Malik Willis: Extreme long shots.
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