Top NFL DFS Leverage Plays: Brady is Elite Play Against Steelers’ Weak Pass Defense (October 16)

Sunday’s schedule has a full slate of 11 games. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Week 6 NFL DFS Leverage Picks

Tom Brady

Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 25th, FanDuel: 21st

Tom Brady is trending up right now and is in a terrific spot this weekend vs. the Steelers. With both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans available the last two weeks, Brady has averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt and topped 300 passing yards in both starts. Brady only produced 224.3 passing yards per game for a modest 6.7 yards per attempt average in his first three games of the season without both Godwin and Evans in the lineup.

The Buccaneers are throwing at the second highest rate in the NFL this season (66.9%) and this Pittsburgh defense Brady is facing is allowing the sixth most yards per pass attempt (7.5) and fifth most passing touchdowns (10).

Tampa Bay’s implied team total is the fifth highest on the slate (25.75 points) and since joining the Buccaneers three years ago, Brady has generated 23 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points, while exceeding 25 DraftKings points at an encouraging 44% clip.

After seeing plenty of attention last week, Brady, Godwin and Evans are all projected for single-digit ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. Stacking these three players together is a contrarian strategy that could really pay off this weekend. If you’re looking to extend this into a game stack, a surging George Pickens is the most compelling bring back option from the Steelers. The rookie has seen eight targets in back-to-back games, including six targets over 20 yards, which is tied with Evans for the most in the league over this span.

Marquise Brown

Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 36th, FanDuel: 19th

Brown is an eruption spot this week against the Seahawks and has to be attacked in GPPs, with Stokastic forecasting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. DeAndre Hopkins is still serving a six-game suspension to start his season, so Brown has handled a massive role, leading the Cardinals in target share (26.6%) and route rate (98%). The speedster has racked up double-digit targets in four straight games and has been heavily utilized down field this season, ranking fourth in the league in targets greater than 20 yards (10) and seventh in air yards (518).

Seattle’s defense has been horrendous this season, allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the league by a significant amount (8.6) and rating as the third worst graded defense on PFF. The Cardinals have been even worst defensively, rating as the lowest graded unit on PFF.

Unsurprisingly, this NFC West matchup presents the second highest total on the slate (51 points). Furthermore, Arizona sports the second largest implied team total on the board (26.75 points). Brown has scored over 20 DraftKings points in three consecutive starts and should continue this streak this Sunday. Stokastic is also projecting Kyler Murray for single-digit ownership in this elite situation and combining Murray with Brown, and possibly one of Rondale Moore or Zach Ertz as well – who were both featured in the NFL DFS Week 6 First Look from earlier this week – is a stack that could win GPPs this weekend.

Mark Andrews

Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 27th, FanDuel: 42nd

Mark Andrews has had one of top receiving roles in the league this season and is very underpriced for his upside. He ranks fourth in the league in target share (32.9%) and 10th in redzone targets (8), while running a route on 94% of his team’s dropbacks. As a deep threat, Andrews ranks 13th in air yards (478) and 15th in targets north of 20 yards (7), which is tied for the most in the NFL among tight ends.

The superstar has exceeded 20 DraftKings points in six of his past 10 starts and now meets a Giants’ defense that is the sixth worst graded unit on PFF. The Ravens’ implied team total is the seventh highest on the board (25.25 points) and when Andrews has played behind an implied team total of at least 25 points over the last two seasons, he has supplied 17 DraftKings points per game. Boasting a top-15 ceiling on the slate among skill players for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Andrews needs to be one of your core GPP plays for Week 6.

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