NFL Week 9 presents a 10-game slate Sunday. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 9 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Mike Evans
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 21st, FanDuel: 18th
Facing cornerback Jalen Ramsey and the Los Angeles Rams, Evans is projected for little ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend, making this an opportune time to invest in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver. Contrary to popular belief, Los Angeles has been susceptible through the air this season, allowing the seventh most yards per pass attempt (7.0). Plus, Evans has thrived against the Rams since quarterback Tom Brady joined the Buccaneers, averaging 22.3 DraftKings PPG across three games, including two with more than 100 yards receiving.
This season, Evans has been targeted on 22% of his routes, including nine red zone targets, which ranks 10th among receivers. Evans also has seen elite usage as a deep threat, ranking third in the NFL in targets over 20 yards (16) and ninth in aDOT (14.8), which gives him far better upside than teammate Chris Godwin. In six games this season, the slot receiver has seen only three targets greater than 20 yards, and his aDOT is an extremely underwhelming 6.5 yards, which is lower than most tight ends in the NFL.
Dropping three games in a row and sitting a disappointing 3-5, this is a must-win for the Bucs. Plus, they will be at home, which is great news for Evans, who has supplied 3.9 more DraftKings PPG on his home turf compared to on the road with Brady. The Buccaneers are 1.5-point favorites, and Evans has scored over 20 DraftKings points in 13 of 20 starts as a home favorite with Brady as his quarterback.
Tyler Lockett
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 33rd, FanDuel: 29th
Forecast to come with single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, it’s hard to not love Lockett this weekend. The Seattle Seahawks wide receiver has been targeted on 24% of his routes this season and ranks ninth in targets north of 20 yards (13). This Sunday, Lockett is facing an Arizona Cardinals defense that is the fifth worst graded unit by Pro Football Focus, and this NFC West matchup is tied for the highest total on the slate (49.5).
Lockett put up a dud against Arizona three weeks ago, but before that, he had been a menace against his division rival, posting at least 18.5 DraftKings points in four consecutive matchups. Lockett is a terrific standalone GPP target and also a sharp bring back option if stacking the Cardinals in this projected shootout.
Christian Kirk
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 29th, FanDuel: 25th
Kirk is a perfect bounce back candidate this weekend. The Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver struggled mightily last Sunday vs. the Denver Broncos, catching three balls for 40 yards, but now gets a much easier matchup vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. This season, Las Vegas is the 23rd worst graded defense by PFF and has given up the sixth most yards per pass attempt (7.2). Denver, on the other hand, is the second highest graded defense by PFF and has given up the fewest yards per pass attempt (4.7). This matchup with the Raiders carries the second largest total on the board at 48 points — which is the highest total for a Jaguars game this season — and Kirk should see heavy volume with Jacksonville as a 1.5-point underdog.
He is leading the Jaguars with a 24.2% target share and ranks 10th in the NFL in red zone targets (10). Additionally, Kirk has eight targets over 20 yards. The wideout is contributing 18.6 DraftKings PPG for the six times the Jaguars have been an underdog this season and is an outstanding buy-low target, with Kirk’s price tags plummeting and him slated for minimal ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel after his quiet showing last week.
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