Sunday presents a full slate of 12 games. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on the player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 5 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Rhamondre Stevenson
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 5th, FanDuel: 5th
The Lions have been the ultimate matchup to attack for fantasy purposes this season. On top of ranking second in neutral situation pace, Detroit’s defense has by a wide margin allowed the most yards (444.8) and points per game (35.8). The Lions defense is the third-worst-graded unit on PFF and their games have yielded an absurd league-high 70.3 points per contest this season. They have especially been vulnerable on the ground, giving up the most yards per rush in the league (5.6). Despite the Patriots’ uncertainty at quarterback with Mac Jones (ankle) injured, New England’s implied team is the eighth highest on the slate (24.25 points) against the Detroit this Sunday. Furthermore, this tilt’s total is the fifth largest on the board (45.5 points) and the Patriots are three-point home favorites.
All this set up perfectly for Stevenson, who is underpriced for his upside in this dream spot and expected to see low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. After seeing little work in the season opener with Ty Montgomery (knee) active, Stevenson has handled a large role for the Patriots with the veteran on IR. Over the last three games, Stevenson has logged at least 55% of the snaps in every contest and obtained 11.7 carries per game, including three red zone attempts. As the superior receiver over backfield mate Damien Harris, Stevenson has also seen a large workload in the passing game, running a route on 60% of his team’s dropbacks and gaining a target on 20% of his routes. Stevenson is producing 17.2 DraftKings points per game for the six instances he has played at least 50% of the snaps for his career – including three efforts over 20 DraftKings points – and is an incredible sleeper pick for GPPs this weekend.
Alvin Kamara
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 20th, FanDuel: 1st
Kamara is an elite buy-low candidate this week. After missing last Sunday’s game in London with a rib injury, he returned to practice this Wednesday and should be a full-go this Sunday’s matchup with the Seahawks. Given Kamara has only played in two games this season and his numbers have been inspiring in those tilts, his price tags on both DraftKings and FanDuel have plummeted to new season lows. In fact, Kamara’s current salary on DraftKings is at a new career-low $6,600. While his results have been lackluster, Kamara’s role has remained top notch and this matchup against Seattle is a perfect spot for him to get back on track.
When active this season, Kamara has handled 72% of the Saints running back carries while playing 66% of the snaps. He has also run a route on 52% of his team’s dropbacks and gained a target on 21% of his routes. This Seahawks defense Kamara is facing is the second-worst-graded unit on PFF. Plus, they are surrendering the third-most yards per rush (5.1) and have already give up five touchdowns to running backs. In this beautiful spot, the Saints boast the fourth-highest total on the slate (25.5 points) and are 5.5-point home favorites. Kamara has yet to compete as a home favorite this year, but the two previous seasons, he destroyed his opponents for 26 DraftKings points per game when the Saints were favored in the Superdome (12 games).
Teddy Bridgewater
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 25th, FanDuel: 70th
Priced near the minimum for a quarterback and with little ownership coming his direction on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Bridgewater must be considered this week. With Tua Tagovailoa (head) ruled out, Bridgewater will get the start this Sunday against the Jets. New York’s is giving up the ninth-most yards per pass attempt this season (7.6) and Miami’s implied team total is set at a healthy 23.75 points.
Throwing the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL (64.8%), the Dolphins have been a pass first offense this season and that shouldn’t change with Bridgewater under center. After the Tagovailoa exited last week, Miami threw the ball on 60% of their plays with Bridgewater at quarterback. With the Broncos last season, Bridgewater was efficient in the 11 games he started and completed, averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt with a 16-7 touchdown to interception ratio, resulting in 17.2 DraftKings points per game. In addition to the prime matchup against the Jets, Bridgewater has arguably the best receiver duo in the league at his disposal, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Miami. Over 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns is a real possibility for Bridgewater and pairing him with one or both of these receivers is surely a strategy that very few will consider. As for a bring back option for Bridgewater stacks, Breece Hall is an excellent choice, as one of the featured picks from the NFL DFS First Look article from earlier this week.
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