Top NFL Divisional Round DFS Leverage Plays: Pass Catchers are the Right Targets

The NFL playoffs continue this weekend with a four-game slate on DraftKings for the Divisional Round. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS leverage plays for Sunday’s three-game slate for the Divisional Round on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Divisional Round NFL DFS Leverage Plays and NFL DFS Optimizer

Ja’Marr Chase

Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 18th

Since returning from a four-game absence due to hip injury in Week 13, Chase has seen an incredible role, being targeted on 29% of his routes for the Cincinnati Bengals. During this time frame, the wide receiver has racked up 12 red zone targets, second in the NFL during that stretch, and seven targets north of 20 yards.

Though Chase is in a tough spot against a Buffalo Bills defense that is giving up the fourth fewest yards per pass this season (5.9), his amazing role trumps any concerns about the matchup. Plus, this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (48.5 points), and Cincinnati is likely to be forced into a pass-heavy game plan as 5.5-point underdogs. Chase has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in five of his past eight starts and is a must for GPPs this weekend with Stokastic projecting him to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings.

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George Kittle

Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 11th

After a quiet start to the season, Kittle has been rejuvenated with Brock Purdy at quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers. In the six games with the rookie, Kittle has been targeted on 22% of his routes, including five red zone targets and five targets greater than 20 yards. With seven touchdowns, the tight end has produced 17.3 DraftKings PPG during this run.

San Francisco’s implied team total is the fourth highest on the slate against the Dallas Cowboys (24.75 points), and Kittle boasts the second best odds to score a touchdown of any skill player in this matchup at +145 at the DraftKings Sportsbook. Furthermore, those are the fifth best odds for a touchdown among all wide receivers and tight ends for the Divisional Round. With Stokastic projecting Kittle for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, the tight end is one of the best contrarian options for this short playoff slate.

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Christian Kirk

Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 5th

Hovering around 20% expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections, Kirk isn’t getting the attention he deserves this week and needs to be one of your core plays for the Divisional Round. Kirk has been targeted on 22% of his routes for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season, including 22 red zone targets, sixth in the NFL, and 19 targets over 20 yards. Kirk has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and is in a perfect spot to continue that streak, going against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has given up the second most touchdowns to receivers this season (20).

This game total is the highest on the slate by a wide gap (53 points), and the Jaguars are 8.5-point underdogs, which should translate into huge volume for Kirk. When Jacksonville has been an underdog this season, the wide receiver has been excellent, generating 17 DraftKings PPG, including five performances over 20 DraftKings PPG. Not only is Kirk a terrific standalone value, he is the best bring back option for Chiefs stacks this weekend.

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