On the menu for Sunday is a 12-game slate for DFS players to attack. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS DFS leverage plays for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 13 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 4th, FanDuel: 170th
This is an outstanding time to buy low on Etienne, especially on DraftKings, where his salary has plummeted to $6,400. He slightly sprained his foot last Sunday after only two carries and didn’t return to the game. Afterwards, the Jaguars coaching staff noted Etienne was held out for precautionary reasons and could have returned.
Etienne is fully expected to play Sunday against the Lions, and this is the perfect spot for him to get back on track after last week’s debacle. Detroit is giving up the second most yards per rush (5.2) and the fourth most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (12). Before exiting last week early, Etienne was handling a massive role with James Robinson out of town.
In his first four full starts following the Robinson trade to the Jets, Etienne was averaging 19.3 carries per game – including 18 red zone attempts – while playing 79.7% of the snaps. Also during this stretch, he ran a route on 56% of his team’s dropbacks and garnered a target on 14% of those routes.
Etienne produced 22.8 DraftKings points per game during this time and this Sunday’s date with the Lions presents the second highest total on the slate (51.5 points). Furthermore, the Jaguars boast the fourth largest implied team total on the board (25.5 points), which is the highest implied team total Etienne has ever played behind. He should flourish in this dream spot and needs to be a core GPP plays this weekend.
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 10th, FanDuel: 10th
With Stokastic projecting Allen for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend, he is an elite option. This season, Allen has been targeted 20% of his routes – including five red zone targets – in only four games. This role could grow even further if Mike Williams (ankle) remains sidelined, but nonetheless, Allen should be extremely active this Sunday and is a great way to attack this projected shootout with the Raiders.
This game’s total is the third highest on the slate (50.5 points) and the Chargers’ implied team total is the third largest on the board (26 points). Las Vegas is yielding the fourth most yards per pass attempt (7.4) this season and Allen owns a career average of 19 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points (45 games).
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 43rd, FanDuel: 24th
In his nine games this season, Kittle has obtained a target on 19% of his routes – including eight red zone targets – while running a route on 88% of his team’s dropbacks. Hosting the Dolphins this Sunday, the 49ers’ carry the sixth highest implied team total on the slate (25.25 points). Furthermore, Miami’s main weakness on defense has been stopping tight ends, with them giving up the second most receptions (69) and third most touchdowns to the position this season (7).
Kittle is contributing 15 DraftKings points per game for his career when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points and is elite sleeper pick this week, with Stokastic projecting him for less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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