Week 14’s main slate has 10 games to attack this Sunday. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS DFS leverage plays for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 14 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Ezekiel Elliot
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 4th, FanDuel: 3rd
Getting exposure to the Cowboys is a must this weekend. Hosting the Texans, Dallas carries an implied team total of 31 points, which is the highest on the slate by 3.5 points. Additionally, the Cowboys are massive 16.5-point favorites. All this is setting up for a huge day for Dallas’ backfield. While most are gravitating towards Tony Pollard, Elliot brings similar upside and is expected to come with half the ownership, making him the better target in GPPs. Since returning a two-game absence, Elliot has had the slight upper hand in terms of usage over Pollard over the last three weeks, handling 47% of the rushes and playing 53% snaps. Pollard has logged 44% of the rushes and 50% of the snaps in that span. Elliot has also had the clear advantage in redzone usage, with eight redzone attempts compared to Pollard’s four.
Elliot has produced 17.5 DraftKings PPG during that three-game span. He is vastly underpriced for his upside against a soft Texans’ run defense that is allowing the fifth most yards per rush (4.9) and most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (14). Elliot has supplied 20 DraftKings PPG when the Cowboys have been home favorites (48 games) throughout his career. While pivoting off Pollard to a lesser owned Elliot has a ton of merit this week, so does the strategy of rostering both backs in the same lineup. Given the huge spread and implied team total, this is a rare situation that could result in strong fantasy performances for both Elliot and Pollard. Rostering the two together is a contrarian strategy that will only be deployed by a handful DFS players this week.
David Njoku
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 5th, FanDuel: 7th
With Stokastic projecting Njoku for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is one of the best gambles at tight end this week. After sitting out last Sunday’s win over the Texans, Njoku has been practicing this week and will return for this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Bengals. Njoku has seen excellent usage as the Browns’ top tight end this season, earning a target on 21% of his routes, while running a route on 71% of the team’s dropbacks.
Njoku ranks fourth in targets over 20 yards (9) and sixth in redzone targets (10) among tight ends this season despite missing two games. The former first-round pick ranks 12th at his position in DraftKings points per snap (0.20) and this AFC North matchup with the Bengals carries the second highest total on the slate (47 points). Cleveland is a six-point underdog, which should translate into a pass heavy gameplan for their offense. Njoku has recorded at least 13 DraftKings points in 3/5 games when playing as an underdog this year.
Tyler Lockett
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 101st, FanDuel: 10th
Lockett is a tremendous target in GPPs this weekend with Stokastic forecasting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Lockett has found the paydirt in five consecutive games. For the season, he has been targeted on 23% of his routes, including 15 targets north of 20 yards and seven redzone targets. This Sunday the Seahawks are facing a Panthers’ defense that is the 10th worst graded unit on PFF. Seattle sports the eighth highest implied team total on the slate (24 points) and they are favored by four points.
Lockett is amassing 20 DraftKings PPG for the four occasions the Seahawks have been favorites this season. Pairing the receiver with Geno Smith is an appealing stack for tournaments that surely will make your lineup contrarian. The quarterback has thrown for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards in back-to-back starts. Smith has also thrived when Seattle has been favorited this season, supplying 23.6 DraftKings PPG (four games).
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