The NFL Week 15 main slate consists of 10 games. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS leverage plays for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 15 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Latavius Murray
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 16th, FanDuel: 91st
Murray is one of the best running backs available this week and is getting way overlooked, with Stokastic projecting him for around 10% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Mike Boone (ankle) was placed on IR this week, and let’s not forget, Melvin Gordon is no longer with the Denver Broncos after being released last month. In the one game Murray played without both Boone and Gordon this season, the veteran received 13 carries in Week 12 — which was 86.7% of the Broncos running back carries in that contest — while logging 81.7% of the snaps. Two of those attempts came in the red zone, and in addition to being Denver’s featured rusher, Murray ran a route on 65% of his team’s dropbacks. He faced a negative game script in that start, with the Broncos losing 23-10 to the Carolina Panthers, and should see a larger role Sunday with Denver as a 3-point home favorite against the Arizona Cardinals.
Arizona is the sixth worst graded defense by Pro Football Focus, and Murray should receive a minimum of 15 touches in this favorable setup. The back is generating 12 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 occasions he has obtained double-digit touches and is rating as a top-eight running back value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections.
Justin Fields
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 26th, FanDuel: 8th
Though Fields and the Chicago Bears will be facing a stout Philadelphia Eagles defense, the quarterback has to be considered, with Stokastic projecting him to be less than 3% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Fields should be fresh coming off a bye. Before that, the dual-threat quarterback was on an incredible run, producing 29.1 DraftKings PPG in his past seven starts. During this time, Fields averaged 7.4 yards per attempt and threw for 10 touchdowns. More importantly, the 23-year-old ranked first in carries per game (12.1) and fourth in red zone carries (14) among quarterbacks. Fields ranks second to Jalen Hurts in DraftKings points per snap among quarterbacks this season (0.75), and though the Philadelphia defense is the second highest graded unit by PFF, this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (48.5 points).
Additionally, Fields should be very active as both a passer and rusher with the Bears as 9-point underdogs and the Eagles ranking sixth in plays per game (66.1). Fields has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points twice this season, while no other quarterback in the NFL has accomplished that once, and could be a GPP winner in this potential shootout. As for players to stack with Fields, Cole Kmet is the best choice, with Chase Claypool currently dealing with a knee injury and still learning the Bears playbook. This season, Kmet has an 18.7% target share, including nine targets over 20 yards and eight red zone targets. In Stokastic’s projections, the tight end is forecast for about 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tyler Conklin
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 12th, FanDuel: 9th
Conklin is far too cheap for his role and is one of the best cheap gambles at tight end this week. With Mike White at quarterback for the New York Jets the past three weeks, Conklin has been the target on 19% of his routes while running a route on 70% of White’s dropbacks. This Sunday, the Jets get arguably the best matchup in fantasy football, facing the Detroit Lions, who are giving up the second most yards per pass (7.5). Detroit has had major issues defending tight ends, giving up the second most touchdowns to the position (8). This game’s total is the fourth highest on the slate (44.5 points), and New York’s implied team total is a healthy 22.75 points, which is its largest implied team total of the season.
Update: Zach Wilson will be starting for the Jets in place of White on Sunday.
In this elite spot, Conklin has a strong chance to reach double-digit fantasy points, which would be an immense return at his low price tags. For GPP’s, pairing Zach Wilson, Conklin and Garrett Wilson is a very appealing, affordable stack that is guaranteed to be contrarian.
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