For the final week of the NFL regular season, DFS players get a 13-game slate to attack this Sunday. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS leverage plays for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 18 NFL DFS Leverage Plays and NFL DFS Optimizer
Tyler Lockett
Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 11th, FanDuel: 33rd
Lockett returned from a one-game absence due to a hand injury this past week for the Seattle Seahawks, but ended up seeing only 32% of the snaps after getting kicked in the leg early in the contest. The wideout is considered day to day with the injury and is way underpriced if he is a full go Sunday, which is likely barring any setbacks, with this being a must win for the Seahawks. To secure a Wild Card in the NFC, Seattle needs to defeat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday afternoon and then have the Detroit Lions either beat or tie the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.
In 15 games this season, Lockett has been targeted on 22% of his routes, including 17 targets over 20 yards and eight red zone targets. Before sitting out Week 16, he had impressively scored eight touchdowns in his prior 10 starts. While this Los Angeles defense is the fifth highest graded unit by Pro Football Focus, it has nothing to play for, and when these clubs matched up in Week 12, Lockett tore up the Rams with nine catches, 128 yards and one touchdown, resulting in a season-high 30.8 DraftKings points. The Seahawks are 6.5-point favorites Sunday, and Lockett has been outstanding when his team has been favored this season, producing 19.3 DraftKings PPG (five games). With Stokastic projecting Lockett for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is one of the best receivers to attack in GPPs for Week 18.
Update: Lockett is officially listed as questionable with a shin injury, but is “determined” to play, per Brady Henderson of ESPN. Given the questionable tag, Lockett should come with even less ownership than initially expected if he suits up, which feels likely. In the event he sits, DK Metcalf will be an enticing option with a large expected workload, but would likely be a popular name in GPPs.
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Zack Moss
Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 54th, FanDuel: 70th
Since losing Jonathan Taylor (ankle) for the season early in Week 15, Moss has been the Indianapolis Colts’ primary rusher, averaging 17 carries per game, including nine red zone attempts, while logging 65.1% of the snaps over the past three weeks. Additionally, he has run a route on 44% of his team’s dropbacks. While Moss has yet to crack double-digit DraftKings points with this compelling role, he is in the perfect spot for him to break through this weekend.
The Colts are 2.5-point home favorites over the Houston Texans, who are the second worst graded defense by PFF. Houston has been notably vulnerable on the ground, giving up the second most yards per rush (5.0) and most rushing touchdowns to running backs (21). With low projected ownership and a ceiling near 20 DraftKings points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Moss is an excellent, cheap target for GPPs.
Dallas Goedert
Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 5th, FanDuel: 30th
After missing five games, Goedert is back to full strength, logging 95% of the snaps over the past two weeks for the Philadelphia Eagles. His numbers haven’t been great, but this has been a product of Gardner Minshew playing quarterback for the Eagles in those two games. This week, Jalen Hurts (shoulder) is expected to return, and this is a must-win for Eagles, with a victory over the New York Giants clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
With both Hurts and Goedert available for the first nine games of the season, the tight end saw a 20.6% target share, including six red zone targets. As for this matchup, Goedert faces a New York team that is expected to rest most of its key players and is the third worst graded defense by PFF. Philadelphia’s implied team total is the highest on the slate (28.5 points), and Goedert has provided 14.2 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points this season (eight games). Not only is the tight end a great standalone value, Goedert is a terrific option to pair with Hurts this weekend.
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