Week 3 of the NFL season has four teams on the main Sunday slate with an implied team total of over 27.0 points, which should make the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Charges, Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings popular targets for DFS purposes.
Last week we saw the power in stacking a team with two elite wide receivers. The Dolphins receivers and Tua Tagovailoa combined 132.1 DraftKings points in what was one of the highest-scoring QB/WR/WR stacks ever. Miami was projecting for us strongly in Week 1 and it’s good to keep an eye on teams that are always projecting at or near the top of the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool this season.
Just like last week we’ll be using the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to see if there’s any place where we can gain leverage on the field, either through ownership or by rostering the other side of the game on a popular stack. How you construct your NFL DFS stacks can be of vital importance to a successful GPP lineup since certain receivers will have different usage, upside and ownership potential each week. If you haven’t checked out the Top Stacks Tool yet you should and we’ll also use it to help us breakdown some of the top opportunities for Week 3 below.
Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 3 on DraftKings + FanDuel
Top Stack: Los Angeles Rams
The top projecting stack in the Stokastic Stacking Tool is again taking on the Arizona Cardinals. Last week the Cardinals were such a bust in the first half that they essentially killed the value of Derek Carr and Davante Adams stacks as the Raiders simply stopped throwing the ball to Adams (or deep in general) once they got up multiple scores. It feels like a dangerous move to go back to a team facing the Cardinals this week but the Rams are a smarter team and seem unlikely to stop pressing against a division opponent. Even after getting up multiple scores last week against Atlanta, the Rams threw the ball 36 times and Matthew Stafford’s turnover rate (5-INTs through two games) means any kind of lopsided Rams win may be hard to come by, especially with Kyler Murray on the other side of the ball.
Speaking of Murray, you could even think about stacking Rams receivers with him, just given the fact he’s seen a solid designed rush play percentage to this point in the season. Stafford himself though is projecting well under 6% owned the Stokastic Top Stack Tool. Cooper Kupp also remains atop the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool with a massive 28.5% boom rating. Kupp has a 40% target share going into Week 2 and, while Stafford/Kupp stacks will be somewhat popular, there are ways to differentiate with LA in this matchup. Tyler Higbee is projecting as the top owned TE on the slate at Stokastic but triple stacks with the Rams can also include a couple of different options.
Ben Skowronek has been on the field for over 80% of the snaps this year and has actually outproduced Allen Robinson in targets. Robinson has been unable to demand target share downfield despite being a clear number two receiver and Skowronek could be in a great position to show increased production against a thin Arizona secondary. Robinson himself is projecting with just 3.3% ownership and showed last week he’s still an effective goal-line option. Given the low rostership, using Robinson as part of a double Rams WR stack is certainly still viable and would give you both good TD upside and good leverage off the Kupp/Higbee stacks. Arizona under Vance Joseph has been stellar at limiting the TE position (they allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2021) so they could show positive regression in Week 3 against Higbee.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 16.7%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 5.8%
Top Low-Owned Stack: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati was the play in this spot last week and, even though they mostly busted for us, I don’t have an issue going back to them in Week 3. The Jets defense allowed Jacoby Brissett a completion rate of over 70% and allowed Amari Cooper to post his first 100-yard game of the season as well. If the run-heavy Browns can accomplish these kind of feats through the air then what can we expect of a motivated Joe Burrow in Week 3?
It’s been a tough start to the year for the Bengals in general with Burrow getting knocked down at an excessive rate once again. He’s also dropped back to throw 36 times or more in each of his first two games and has averaged over 30-yards rushing thanks in some part to his offensive-line issues. Burrow’s scramble rate may come back down a bit as the season progresses but this week is also do-or-die time for the Bengals, who can ill-afford to fall further behind Cleveland.
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Burrow’s ownership levels also mean the Bengals stacks may not have much ownership attached to them, which feels like a huge mistake given the tools they have on the outside. Ja’Marr Chase continued his yo-yo like scoring for DFS after he connected on just five catches (nine targets) against Dallas. Tee Higgins came to life though with a 6-71-TD line and he’s projecting as a top-10 play in the Boom/Bust tool this week with a 13.1 Boom percentage. Higgins will actually be the higher-rostered Bengals receiver this week, with about an 11% ownership projection right now on Stokastic which makes this a great time to pay up for Chase as well. A slow week, an $8,100 salary and the fact people may be scared off him due to a matchup with cornerback Sauce Gardner means Chase could even push for sub-5% ownership. Anytime we can get Chase and Burrow both at or under 5%, means this is a stack we should have interest in.
The Jets have proven competent on offense this year and have added weapons at RB and WR — so this game also has more shootout potential than casual players will perceive it to have. Cincinnati is again a top-five stack in the Stokastic Top Stack Tool and has the same kind of elite WRs as the Miami stacks that won people all the GPPs last week. It’s a good spot if you’re seeking a differentiator kind of lineup for Week 2.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 7.8%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 4.8%
Tournament Leverage Stack: Kansas City Chiefs
I expect some of the Kansas City Chiefs players to have ownership attached to them, but this is shaping up as a curious week where the field is more likely to pile into mediocre teams like Minnesota, Detroit or Miami than trust the Chiefs. Kansas City still maintains the third-highest implied team total on the slate and will be facing off against a Colts defense which allowed Trevor Lawrence to post a career best 83% completion rate against them last week. The slot receiver against Indianapolis has also been a great target with Chris Moore and Christian Kirk both posting 100% success rates in converting their targets to catches against Indianapolis. Kirk caught six balls with two TDs last week against the soft coverage and that’s a great sign for Juju-Smith Schuster this week, who has taken nearly 50% of his snaps from the slot this year.
Smith-Schuster has had the best connection rate with Patrick Mahomes (9 for 11 in converted targets) of any of the Chiefs WRs and was showcased heavily against Arizona early (another weak secondary) before the Chiefs pulled the throttle back in the second half. I would expect Smith-Schuster to again be featured here and perhaps even push for his first 100-yard game against such a weak secondary. Stacking this game will be pricy as Jonathan Taylor and Travis Kelce would also be near-musts to include. The upside though is that both have rostership projections of under 15% and likely give you good leverage off the most popular stacks, which are likely to include chalkier options like David Montgomery and Tyler Higbee at RB and TE.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 5.0%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 4.6%
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