There’s plenty of injury news to digest heading into Week 4 as names like Keenan Allen, David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift are out and will all open up potential value and opportunity with backups taking bigger roles. As of now there’s just one game on the Week 4 main Sunday slate with a point total over 50 points. That game is Buffalo at Baltimore which is sitting with a 51.0 total at the moment. Last week saw a lot of low owned WRs and RBs go for massive days as names like Chris Olave, Marquise Brown and Russell Gage dominated the slate.
Brown and the Arizona stack were projecting as a solid leverage play for us in Week 3 given the Rams popularity. It’s good to keep an eye on teams that are on the other side of the most popular stacks in the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool this season.
Just like last week we’ll be using the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to see if there’s any place where we can gain leverage on the field, either through ownership or by rostering the other side of the game on a popular stack. The way you construct your NFL DFS stacks can be of vital importance to a successful GPP lineup since certain receivers will have different usage, upside and ownership potential each week. If you haven’t checked out the Top Stacks Tool yet you should and we’ll also use it to help us breakdown some of the top opportunities for Week 4 below.
Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 4 on DraftKings + FanDuel
Top Stack: Philadelphia Eagles
It’s very tight at the top of the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool with the Eagles within a percentage point of Buffalo for top spot. While the Bills have the larger implied point total and are in the game with the higher over/under, it’s the Eagles who enter this game 100% healthy. Jalen Hurts has supported two WR1’s in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith so far this season. While Smith has dominated for fantasy purposes the last two weeks it’s Brown who is trending with a team target share of 31.6% and makes for a great pay-up target with Hurts. The nice thing about building with the Eagles is that while Hurts is obviously going to carry some ownership (he’s averaged 55-yards rushing and a rushing TD per game this year) Brown isn’t even projected as a top five owned player at his position.
Taking it a step further, Smith’s productivity of late (19 targets and 15 receptions in his last two games) hasn’t done a thing for his ownership levels as he’s still projecting well under 10% rostered in the Stokastic ownership projections as of Saturday. The Jaguars defense did a great job last week against an injured Justin Herbert but this is still a crew who allowed Carson Wentz to throw for 7.6 yards per completion and four TDs in Week 1.
Teams with two elite WRs like the Eagles are where we can most easily get paid off for DFS. The Eagles look like they’ll be extremely low-owned, relative to their strong projections this week, and play a team in the Jaguars who also have an easy some comeback targets in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram to complete a game stack. The field will be focused on the Bills-Ravens this week but an Eagles team stack centered around Hurts has paid off three weeks in a row now. There’s no reason to stop playing this just because the Jaguars are in town.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 11.1%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 10.1%
Top Low-Owned Stack: Seattle Seahawks
With a game total of 48.0 points and two below average defenses meeting up, the game environment for DET-SEA should be good for some serious fantasy production. The Lions have injury issues to deal with on offense as the likes of D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown have both been ruled out for Sunday. That will make some of the Lions players chalky this week but also good fantasy targets simply due to the volume they’re going to receive.
One way to get Lions players like Jamaal Williams in your lineup — and still keep a healthy total ownership for your build — is to think about stacking Seattle skill players on the other side of this game. The Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points against to opposing QBs this season and still rank bottom 10 in yards per play and yards per pass attempt allowed. Geno Smith was great last week against a weaker Detroit Secondary and Seattle’s defense, which ranks out even worse than Detroit’s, means he’ll likely be throwing the ball 35+ times again on the road. Smith’s cheaper salary makes him a good value target on his own, simply due to the matchup between two terrible defenses, but it’s also rare to find a quarterback at his salary levels with two legitimate stud WRs we can stack him with as well.
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both went for over 16.0 DraftKings points last week, and haven’t risen much in salary at all for Week 4, with Lockett projecting as a great value in the Stokastic projections at just $5,800. Jamming in both Seahawks WRs against a weaker defense isn’t as outlandish as it seems after last week and they’ll help keep your total ownership levels civil as you grab some of the high-end Detroit chalk on the other side.
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Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 4.2%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 7.8%
Tournament Leverage Stack: Baltimore Ravens
As of now, Buffalo is projecting as our top stack for the week (although it’s very close with Philadelphia) and their quarterback has a top ownership percentage of 11.8%. There’s certainly no reason to fade this game just because some of the top skill players will have be popular as it contains the highest point total on the slate by a wide margin, and also features two banged up defenses.
A unique way to approach it though for DFS is to start on the other side of the ball and take advantage of what will likely be very small ownership on Lamar Jackson. Jackson is projecting with under 5% ownership and has a top target in Mark Andrews whose 35.2% team target share is first in the league. Andrews is projecting as the top tight-end on the slate but the perceived bad match-up against Buffalo — and a salary of $7,100 on DraftKings — will likely keep his ownership somewhat suppressed. Double stacking Jackson will also give you access to a very unique build. All of the Baltimore WRs are projecting with 5% ownership or less this week but Rashod Bateman’s 18.2% target share has risen since Week 1 and, with two of Buffalo’s kay players in the secondary (Dane Jackson and Jordan Poyer) injured and questionable for this week, Bateman feels like a solid upside play for this week’s matchup.
The great thing about the Ravens is that while we’re almost assured to get lower ownership on Jackson and his WRs, they’re still projecting very highly in the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool. Right now they’re the third highest projected stack for Week 4 and make for a great leverage target off the popular Bills.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 9.8%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 4.5%
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