(43.5) Cleveland Browns (25) @ New York Jets (18.5)
All Graphs Reflect Last Five Weeks of Data, Click Graphs to Enlarge
Team Passing and Pace
First, let’s take a look at the possibility of this game turning into a shootout, as teams that play faster and pass more than average tend to score more fantasy points. When both teams play aggressively, it often creates a game environment perfect for fantasy scoring. Games have a higher probability of going over their Vegas total as well. Ideally, we’re seeking matchups where both teams are in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below (see the chart’s caption for more details).
Despite picking up their first win of the season in Week 15, the Jets, from a play-calling perspective remain one of the least-exciting offenses in football, choosing to focus on clock-control and incremental gains on the ground. While Cleveland ranks below league-average in game-adjusted pace of play, they make up for that lack of speed by opting to throw deeper than most teams in neutral situations, breathing unexpected upside into an offense that remains centered around its two-headed rushing attack
Recent Quarterback Performance
Next, let’s examine the starting quarterbacks’ recent play. Sustained drives in the NFL rely on efficiency at the quarterback position, so I’ve identified my three favorite performance indicators for assessing quarterback performance. The three bar charts below (see the graph’s caption for more detail) represent a quarterback’s per-drive efficiency (left bar-chart), per-play efficiency including rushes/scrambles (center) and per-pass efficiency (right). Higher rankings from both players indicate a higher likelihood of efficient play, thus a higher probability of fantasy points.
Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his career. While it’s clear coach Kevin Stefanski and Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt have created an offense that focuses on the ground game and doesn’t ask too much of their quarterback, Mayfield has responded with top-tier efficiency on a per-drive, per-pass, and per-play basis over the last five weeks. Sam Darnold is still struggling overall but seems to have found his touch as a passer recently, ranking just below Deshaun Watson in completion percentage above expectation, the chart on the right.
NFL DFS Player Pool Picker: Upside Analysis
Now, let’s examine the primary skill players from each offense. Unless participating in a large-field tournament, these are the players you should be focusing on in your daily fantasy football lineups. For each player, I’ve made it easy to compare their per-game fantasy (in column 3) to their DraftKings main slate salary ranking (in column 2). Column 4 ranks the player using my favorite position-specific volume metric: Expected fantasy points, which is curated by PFF. The Defense vs. Position column is an extremely helpful position-specific and player-group specific (for example, the metric delineates between primary wide receiver vs. secondary wide receivers) metric that helps determine if an offensive player is likely to be in a position to exceed their expected fantasy points. Higher numbers in the Defense vs. Position column indicate easier matchups for the offense, while numbers closer to one indicate a stout defense against that specific position-group.
The final column, Expected Projection, combines a player’s expected fantasy points with their weekly matchup into one helpful value metric. Apart from the Awesemo projections (which should still carry the most weight in determining player value), Expected Projection is one of my favorite metrics to help me narrow down my favorite plays of the week. The rankings are always specific to the slate, meaning if a player or team is ranked No. 1 at a specific metric, they may not necessarily be ranked No. 1 in the NFL, but they are for this specific slate.
Cleveland Browns NFL DFS Core Offenses
Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
CLE | Baker Mayfield, QB | #8 | #11 | #18 | #32 | 20.5 Fpts (QB6) |
CLE | Nick Chubb, RB | #1 | #2 | #5 | #13 | 19.5 Fpts (RB2) |
CLE | Jarvis Landry, WR | #7 | #18 | #22 | #32 | 15.5 Fpts (WR8) |
CLE | Kareem Hunt, RB | #15 | #17 | #21 | #13 | 12.5 Fpts (RB12) |
CLE | Rashard Higgins, WR | #28 | #23 | #43 | #23 | 11.5 Fpts (WR24) |
CLE | Austin Hooper, TE | #12 | #10 | #18 | #32 | 9.5 Fpts (TE8) |
New York Jets NFL DFS Core Offenses
Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
NYJ | Sam Darnold, QB | #18 | #17 | #27 | #16 | 15.5 Fpts (QB14) |
NYJ | Jamison Crowder, WR | #32 | #32 | #55 | #4 | 9.5 Fpts (WR34) |
NYJ | Denzel Mims, WR | #51 | #55 | #72 | #31 | 8 Fpts (WR48) |
NYJ | Frank Gore, RB | #31 | #31 | #41 | #8 | 6.5 Fpts (RB27) |
NYJ | Breshad Perriman, WR | #44 | #21 | #40 | #14 | 11 Fpts (WR27) |
While the Browns have certainly been “priced-up” for their matchup against the Jets, it’s excellent to see all of the Browns primary options’ expected projections right in line with their salary-based expectations. Chubb will be difficult to fit into lineups, as the highest salary back on the slate, but presents arguably the highest floor at the position this weekend without Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook on the main slate. For the Jets, the lower-salary receivers, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman, seem like the strongest value-plays on the New York side of the ball. Mims seems to have an especially favorable matchup and has a salary outside the top 50 wide receivers.
NFL DFS Backfield Values: Running Back Opportunities
Nailing the running back position in your fantasy football lineups is vitally important. There are many metrics that help fantasy gamers determine which running backs earn higher-value touches than their peers, but my favorite is Quality Opportunities per game. It only counts running back looks that come via the receiving game (as receptions are much more valuable on a per-play basis than rushes) or via goal line rushes (inside the opponent’s 10-yard line) since there isn’t anything more valuable than a touchdown.
With Frank Gore and Ty Johnson splitting the workload for the Jets, the only running backs worth considering in daily fantasy football lineups are Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Hunt, despite playing on just over half of the Browns’ snaps, continues to be heavily utilized when on the field, commanding nearly as many quality opportunities as Chubb. Both could score multiple times in this plus-matchup.
NFL DFS Receiving Values: Skill Position Opportunity Ranges
The wide receiver and tight end positions are two of the higher-variance positions in all of daily fantasy football, so it’s important to consider both floor and ceiling when predicting a player’s usage. Players with unexpectedly high opportunity in the passing game often have the best chances to outperform their projections, so I created a chart that measures a player’s opportunity range of outcomes (see the caption of the graph for more details on how this is calculated.). The horizontal bars represent a player’s expected opportunity range, while the center dot represents their average opportunity.
Two things stand out from the chart on the left. First, It appears that Denzel Mims (when he’s on the field) and Breshad Perriman have more upside than Jamison Crowder, despite Crowder posting monster target numbers to begin the season. Second, when factoring-in air yards to the Browns’ passing attack, Rashard Higgins appears to have equal upside to presumed primary receiver Jarvis Landry. Higgins is absolutely in play in small-field tournaments and can even be considered in cash games as a budget-receiver option.
NFL DFS Auxiliary Offensive Players for Large-Field Contests
In daily fantasy football, depending on the size and type of contest you’re playing, it’s often advantageous to expand your player pool to less-utilized offensive players. In this section, we examine every part-time player’s usage based on playing time, opportunity and (again) defensive matchup. For each player, I create an Opportunity Score, which scales a position-specific opportunity metric between zero (least valuable) and 100 (most valuable). Scores above 50 tend to indicate starter-level opportunity, while scores over 80 indicate star-level usage. Finally, I categorize the players as an NFL DFS value, a mass multi-entry option (MME-only) or a player to avoid altogether.
Cleveland Browns NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
CLE | Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR | 37% | 54 | #8 | MME-only |
CLE | David Njoku, TE | 51% | 58 | #32 | MME-only |
CLE | Harrison Bryant, TE | 60% | 77 | #32 | MME-only |
CLE | KhaDarel Hodge, WR | 51% | 59 | #8 | Look Elsewhere |
New York Jets NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
NYJ | Ty Johnson, RB | 29% | 80 | #8 | Look Elsewhere |
NYJ | Chris Herndon, TE | 68% | 58 | #29 | Look Elsewhere |
NYJ | Josh Adams, RB | 14% | 68 | #8 | Look Elsewhere |
NYJ | Ryan Griffin, TE | 47% | 57 | #29 | Look Elsewhere |
With the Jets struggling mightily over the middle of the field, and ranking dead last against opposing tight ends, fantasy gamers can absolutely consider the Browns’ auxiliary passing game options in large-field contests, as Donavon Peoples-Jones, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant look particularly strong in the chart above.
Final Thoughts
Don’t expect an encore victory for the Jets. The Browns will control this one from start to finish, making Chubb and Hunt the most valuable plays, by far, in this contest. Alternatively, no one should be surprised if Baker Mayfield throws for another four touchdowns.
Prediction: Browns 27, Jets 16
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