The NFL regular season is winding down and with a 13-game main slate identifying the motivation of teams will be crucial. A few teams have already begun thinking about their offseason while several are still sparring for playoff position. This column will cover the value plays available on Sunday’s main slate by utilizing Stokastic’s Week 17 NFL DFS value picks and projections to address which players generate the best point-per-dollar value while analyzing the projected ownership to understand the leverage of these plays. Among players touched on, but not limited to, are Brock Purdy, Tyler Allgeier and Jared Goff.
Week 17 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays
Week 17 NFL DFS Value Picks Quarterback: Jared Goff – $5,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Chicago hosts Detroit in an NFC North divisional matchup featuring the highest game total (52.0) on the slate. The visiting Lions are in the hunt for the final Wild Card spot with only two games remaining in the regular season. Jared Goff comes in extremely underpriced on DraftKings for a quarterback averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game.
This matchup is one to target with the Bears defense allowing 7.5 yards per opponent pass attempt (30th) on the season while surrendering 26.2 points per game (31st) in the process. Goff’s tag is laughable considering his production over the last four weeks. Fresh off a 29.7-point performance (QB2) last week, he also produced 29.1 points (QB4) in Week 14 and 24.6 points (QB4) in Week 13. His average of 24.4 DraftKings points per contest ranks as QB5 over that span.
Detroit also carries their highest implied total (29) of the season while projecting as Stokastic’s Top NFL DFS Stack. Due to pricing, targeting Goff on DraftKings and Justin Fields on FanDuel – where he projects as the top value play – makes a lot of sense. This game should remain competitive and with both defenses struggling, it has many paths to a shootout, making Jared Goff a good NFL DFS value pick.
Week 17 NFL DFS Value Picks Quarterback: Brock Purdy – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, Brock Purdy has generated a safe floor across four starts. While his pass volume has declined since his first start, the efficiency has been borderline elite. Averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt on 68.9% completion creates ample opportunity for the skilled players in San Francisco.
In fact, pass catchers are averaging 4.47 yards after catch per target with Purdy, which ranks third in the NFL. Las Vegas remains vulnerable defensively, in particular against the pass. Surrendering 244.3 pass yards per game ranks 27th in the NFL and their 19.9 DraftKings points allowed to opposing quarterbacks slots them 27th in the league by that metric.
Christian McCaffrey projects as the top flex-eligible value on the slate despite his tag of $9,000 on DK. Given the matchup, projecting a good portion of his production to come through the pass game doesn’t seem farfetched. While Purdy’s upside is somewhat limited due to the offensive scheme, his floor and projection make him an ideal cash play while the attachment to McCaffrey presents great upside as a stacking option. Brock Purdy ownership projections confirm this, as early in the week he’s amongst the top-three most owned quarterbacks on both platforms.
Week 17 NFL DFS Value Picks Running Back: Tyler Allgeier – $5,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Atlanta has run the third-most rushing plays (32.5) per game on the season and since Desmond Ridder has taken the reins, Tyler Allgeier has been their lead back. Seeing 53.8% of snaps since Week 15 has resulted in 35 rush attempts and five receptions (on six targets) while yielding 253 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. This accounts for 37.4% of the team’s offensive touches and 39.1% of the team’s yardage production.
The fifth-round rookie has surpassed Cordarrelle Patterson as the Falcons begin building for the future following another lost season. The matchup with Arizona is exactly what DFS players should target when addressing the running back position as the Cardinals allow 27.1 fantasy points (28th) to running backs on the season.
They are particularly bad in the red zone where they rank 31st against the position, permitting 8.8 points per game. Allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt ranks in the bottom third of the NFL while the 46.3 receiving yards earned by opposing running backs is the fourth-most in the league. Allgeier’s ownership early in the week is sub-6% which allots him the top leverage play on the slate and leaving a situation to monitor into Sunday.
Week 17 NFL DFS Value Picks Running Back: Zack Moss – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor moving to injured reserve for the remainder of the season opened Indianapolis’ backfield to the duo of Zack Moss and Deon Jackson. Over the last six weeks, the New York Giants are allowing 27.4 points to opposing running backs (25th) per game while on the season they’ve surrendered a league worst 5.4 yards per rush attempt.
This measure jumps to 6.5 over the last three games and displays the opportunity this Colts backfield should benefit from on Sunday. Moss has operated as the primary option seeing 69% of snaps since Week 15 yet comes in priced below Jackson on DraftKings who has seen only 25.6% snap share. FanDuel didn’t make this same blunder, but Moss holds even higher value there and falls just a few value points below what looks like the Week 16 chalk, Christian McCaffrey.
It’s reasonable for Indianapolis to favor Moss with their backfield touches. Jackson is an undrafted free agent who has shown some promise but doesn’t appear to be capable of handling the bulk of the duties, and the Colts sought out Buffalo to exchange Nyheim Hines for Moss this season.
Week 17 NFL DFS Value Picks Wide Receiver: DJ Chark – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Projections are drawing a lot of interest to Amon-Ra St. Brown in the aforementioned matchup with the Chicago Bears. However, D.J. Chark continues to go unnoticed despite drawing plenty of attention from Jared Goff in four of the last five games. Since Week 12, Chark has seen a snap share and route participation north of 80% while producing at a very consistent clip.
Across these five games he’s averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game and that’s including a dud when matched up with Sauce Gardner just two weeks ago. With his teammate pulling the most ownership at the position it’s rather surprising to see Chark’s ownership hovering around 3% on both sites despite this recent production and the prime matchup.
Expect Jaylon Johnson to align with St. Brown on a majority of snaps and while he was exposed last week when trying to hold A.J. Brown, he’s been undoubtedly Chicago’s best corner for the past three seasons. If Chark is able to eat into some of St. Brown’s projection he would provide massive leverage on the field at his current ownership, and if the Lions double stack seems intriguing, he’d provide a reliable option for that build.
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