NFL DFS Value Picks Week 18: NFC Playoffs Rest on ... Geno Smith?

The final week of the NFL regular season is here, and with a 13-game main slate, identifying the motivation of teams will be crucial. A majority of teams have already been locked into their playoff position or have been eliminated from contention, which places volatility on starters’ reps heading into the week. This column will cover the NFL DFS value picks available on Sunday’s main slate by utilizing Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to address which players generate the best point-per-dollar value while analyzing the NFL DFS ownership projections to understand the leverage of these plays.

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Week 18 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

Quarterback: Geno Smith – $6,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel

Seattle determines the landscape of the remaining NFC contenders in their pivotal matchup with the Rams. If the Seahawks are victorious, it forces the late-flexed NFC North tilt between Green Bay and Detroit to determine the final playoff spot.

In the first meeting with Los Angeles, Geno Smith attempted 39 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winner to D.K. Metcalf with only 36 seconds remaining. The Rams have allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season, which ranks in the bottom third, but more importantly, Los Angeles is expected to be without Aaron Donald. That will be pivotal for Seattle’s front — it allows 2.7 sacks per game.

Stacking this game is an option, with both Tyler Lockett and Metcalf popping for over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown each in the first matchup. Smith looks like a sneaky pivot off the lower-priced quarterback value in one of the most meaningful games of Week 18. His NFL DFS projections have him as the sixth-best value, but he arguably provides more security than anyone above him.

Quarterback: Brock Purdy – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel

While usage has reduced the weekly ceiling of San Francisco’s newest golden boy, this week looks to be squarely on Brock Purdy’s shoulders. With Christian McCaffrey (ankle) missing practice midweek and no reason to risk his health before the playoffs, the 49ers will be left with a backfield of Jordan Mason and designated IR returnee Elijah Mitchell. Kyle Shanahan is certainly going to involve other people in the backfield after eight players handled a carry last week, and the return of Deebo Samuel should afford enough elusiveness to his ball carriers.

However, after he attempted 35 pass attempts in a thriller with the Raiders last week, it’s possible Purdy will have to air it out again. He created a connection with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle in the three games without Samuel. San Francisco holds the second-highest implied team total (27.5) on the slate, and taking a sub-10% owned Purdy stack could pay a pretty penny in GPPs.

Running Back: Tyler Allgeier – $5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel

Atlanta has now run the second-most rushing plays (32.5) per game on the season, and last week further confirmed Tyler Allgeier as its lead back. It’s rinse and repeat for Allgeier, who took 70% of the snaps for 20 carries (six in the red zone) and a reception, yielding 95 total yards and a touchdown. His snap share continues to grow, and with a 100-yard rushing performance, he’ll surpass 1,000 on the ground as a fifth-round rookie.

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The Falcons effectively utilized both Cordarrelle Patterson and Allgeier together last week, with Patterson being utilized more in the passing game. This slightly limits Allgeier’s upside but doesn’t completely remove his responsibilities as a pass catcher. The snap share increase has been positive, and the matchup with Tampa Bay isn’t as daunting as it once was. Atlanta is favored by 4 points and holds the eighth-highest implied team total (22.75) on the slate. Allgeier projects as the top running back value on both FanDuel and DraftKings, with his tag only increasing by $300 on both sites despite his recent hot streak.

Running Back: Alexander Mattison – $5,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Alexander Mattison is a name still flying under the radar due to no confirmation of Dalvin Cook’s involvement in Sunday’s NFC North bout. Mattison is a premier handcuff that offers little to no predictable upside when Cook starts, and he becomes a rock-solid RB1 when filling in as Minnesota’s starter.

The Vikings are playing for playoff seeding, and given their recent struggles, they could elect to give their starters run until securing a sizable lead. Cook projects as a top-five value running back on both sites, but if limited in this game, he would cede tremendous value to Mattison. FanDuel has priced Mattison higher in case of this happening, but DraftKings neglected to do so.

Chicago presents the ideal matchup for opposing running backs, having surrendered 5.0 yards per carry on the season and 6.1 over the last three games. Since fully selling nearly its entire defense, this unit has struggled mightily as they contend for the first overall pick. Don’t expect much of a fightback from the Bears offense either, as Nathan Peterman will start at quarterback in the final week of the season. This presents an ideal matchup for the Vikings to get their running game back on track, and doing so with Mattison makes the most sense.

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Tight End: Tyler Higbee – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

Due to pricing, there appears to be a lot of value for the Rams pass catchers in the biggest game of Sunday’s slate. Both Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell project as top value plays among all pass catchers; however, Tyler Higbee should be the safest play of them all.

Higbee has seen 28 targets over the last five games and will face the league’s worst defense against opposing tight ends. Seattle has allowed more yards receiving (1,134) and rushing (112) to the position, while a league-worst 11 touchdowns further prove the point. None of this production is thanks to Higbee, who tanked for two receptions and 14 yards on five targets in their first meeting. The Seahawks allow 6.7 yards per pass attempt on the year, and given the stakes, they will come out aggressively on offense. This has the making of a classic NFC West matchup with each team taking advantage of the other’s defensive weaknesses.

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