Eight weeks into the NFL season and fresh off the trade deadline, snap counts across the league will be impacted. With all these changes, make sure to check out Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are the best point-per-dollar NFL DFS value picks while utilizing the NFL DFS ownership projections to understand the leverage of these plays.
Combine Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are best point-per-dollar while utilizing the projected ownership to understand the leverage of these plays.
Week 9 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays
Quarterback: Justin Fields – $5,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Since Week 5, Justin Fields is averaging 21.7 DraftKings points per game, increasing his production in four consecutive weeks. His 182 yards passing on a 64.1% completion percentage coupled with 69.25 yards rushing per game over this span generates an incredibly solid floor at his salary. Being priced as QB15 on DraftKings gives Fields a slight advantage on that platform, as FanDuel has him priced up to QB8 for this ideal matchup with the Miami Dolphins. Miami has allowed 22 fantasy points per game on DraftKings, ranking 27th in the NFL. Surrendering 192 yards rushing and two scores by ground to opposing quarterbacks on the season puts the Dolphins at 28th in the league for that metric. Similarly, Miami’s defense ranks 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.3) and 26th in total pass yards allowed per game (262.1). This matchup holds a game total of 44.5 points, the highest total this season for the Chicago Bears, who have trended over the total in four of the last six games. The loss of Roquan Smith removes a potential cornerstone of an already permeable Bears defense, but the addition of Chase Claypool adds another legitimate receiving option outside of Darnell Mooney, giving two legitimate stacking options that leave a lot of remaining salary available to build out the rest of the lineup.
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers – $5,900 DraftKings, $7,000
While nothing has changed on the fantasy side of attacking Detroit Lions matchups, a lot has changed for the Green Bay Packers from 2021 to 2022. Aaron Rodgers in particular, who was coming off back-to-back MVP seasons, is off to potentially the worst start of his NFL career. He is averaging a career-low in yards per attempt (6.6) while his yards per completion (9.9) dipped under 10.9 for the first time since 2007, his first year as the starting quarterback. The matchup at hand is optimal for all Packers this week as the Detroit Lions rank 32nd in pass DVOA and 30th in run DVOA, slotting them as the worst defense in the NFL by a longshot per Football Outsiders. With the depletion of receiving talent on this roster, the Packers and Rodgers have turned to involving Aaron Jones out of the backfield much more over the past two weeks and the results have been encouraging. Currently projecting as the sixth-best value at the position on DraftKings and FanDuel, Rodgers is viable on either platform and may hold some of the biggest boom potential of those near the top of the list.
Running Back: Travis Etienne – $6,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Projecting as the second-best value play at the position on both platforms this week, Etienne has been on a tear producing double digits the past four weeks while averaging 19.58 DraftKings points per contest. Etienne has surpassed 100 yards from scrimmage over this span while adding two touchdowns on the ground. Despite Las Vegas ranking 18th in run DVOA, they have surrendered the second-most yards receiving (428) and most receiving touchdowns (three) to opposing running backs this season. This results in their pass DVOA ranking 31st. Since James Robinson was traded, Travis Etienne has seen a nearly 80% snap share while running routes on upwards of 50% of dropbacks. He’s taken nine red zone touches over the past two weeks and his 19 on the season is the ninth highest at the position. His involvement is skyrocketing but the pricing has yet to adjust. He’s one of the safest plays on the slate displayed by his top-ranked Boom Score on DraftKings and the second-best Boom Score amongst running backs on FanDuel.
Running Back: Aaron Jones – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Becoming a focal point of this struggling Green Bay Packers offense over the past two weeks has Jones popping in this week’s NFL DFS projections. The matchup is exactly the thing to target in terms of fantasy because this Lions defense is rotten. After posting 143 yards rushing on 20 carries against the imposing Buffalo Bills defense, Jones will face a much more penetrable front this week. Detroit allows 154.9 yards rushing per game (30th) on 5.1 yards per carry (28th) while surrendering 28.4 fantasy points to opposing running backs (30th) on the year. They have allowed a league-worst 11 touchdowns on the ground to the position. Jones has contributed 13 multi-touchdown games (two of which came against Detroit) over his 77-game career and has 42 touchdowns in total. This is the perfect matchup to target and potentially stack on both sides with the game total sitting at 49.5 points, the second highest on the slate.
Tight End: Robert Tonyan – $3,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Recovering from an ACL injury suffered in Week 8 of last year, Tonyan has been brought along slowly to start the season. His ramp-up has begun and since Week 6, he’s participated in 68.4% of routes while seeing between 60-80% of the snap share. With 22 targets over the past three games, Tonyan has produced 18 receptions for 157 scoreless yards. Only a year and a half removed from his breakout 11-touchdown season, Tonyan will look at this matchup with the porous Detroit Lions to secure his first touchdown since Week 4. On the season, the Lions have allowed 15.3 fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Through seven games, they’ve surrendered 413 yards receiving and five touchdowns on 36 receptions. He provides an ancillary stacking piece to this Green Bay attack that ranks third in Stokastic’s Top NFL DFS Stacks and ranks as a top-three value play at the position on both sites.
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