NFL DFS Value Picks Wild Card Sunday: Giants Provide Stacking Options

NFL Wild Card Weekend is finally upon us, and if your team didn’t make it to this stage, at least we can gamble on the ones that did! Saturday’s slate was covered in a previous column, which you can check out here. Sunday we get a three-game slate featuring the Buffalo Bills at home versus the Miami Dolphins, followed by an NFC clash between the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants, and ending with a classic AFC North showdown when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens. This column will cover the value plays available on Sunday’s main slate by utilizing Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to address which players generate the best point-per-dollar value while analyzing the projected ownership to understand the leverage of these plays.

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Wild Card Sunday NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

QB Daniel Jones – $5,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

The Giants return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and visit Minnesota in a game with the highest game total (48.0) of Wild Card Weekend. As 3-point road dogs, Daniel Jones will be tasked with exposing a Vikings defense that allows 402.9 yards total (31st), 265.6 yards passing (31st) and 25.1 points (T 28th) per game. It took a 61-yard field goal as time expired to lift Minnesota over New York, 27-24, on Christmas Eve. Jones threw for 334 yards and one touchdown, exhibiting a nice connection with Richie James Jr. and Isaiah Hodgins. Jones’ rushing ability secures a solid floor, ranking top five in rush attempts (120), red zone carries (25), yards rushing (708) and touchdowns (7) among quarterbacks, with 91 yards rushing and two touchdowns in his last game. Expect Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley and Daniel Bellinger to draw plenty of targets against a secondary allowing the third most yards per pass attempt (7.3) in the NFL. Stokastic’s NFL DFS Top Stacks Tool rates New York as the top team stack on FanDuel and in the top three on DraftKings, making these players interesting options.

QB Josh Allen – $7,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel

As the highest priced quarterback, Josh Allen is not a cheap option, but he generates immense value and a ceiling unrivaled by his peers. Don’t be surprised if he’s the most owned quarterback on the slate with Buffalo projecting as a great stacking option thanks to the highest implied team total (28.5) of the weekend. Miami allows only 265.4 yards passing (4th) per game but allows the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on a per game basis. The Dolphins surrendered 525 yards rushing to the position this season, second worst in the NFL, and their 27 passing touchdowns allowed is tied for third worst. Allen was third in the NFL in passing touchdowns (35) and second among QBs in yards rushing (776), with seven touchdowns. Accessing the highest projected fantasy score on both sites is a great way to start roster construction on both cash and GPP formats. In the two games against Miami this season, Allen completed 67 of 103 pass attempts for 704 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions, and added 124 yards rushing.

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RB Dalvin Cook – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel

Minnesota nearly abandoned the run game this season, running at the third lowest rate (36%) in the NFL. Following the Christmas Eve game with the Giants, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell claimed, “[I] want to definitely be more balanced. That’s on me as the play caller. I thought Dalvin [Cook] ran the ball well and definitely probably deserved a few more opportunities.” You can assume rational coaching rarely yields profitable results, but when looking at the Minnesota-New York matchup it is an incredible opportunity for the Vikings to attack the Giants’ most vulnerable weakness defensively. Cook projects as a rock solid value at a price point fairly below Saquon Barkley. He has the upside of a usage monster with 264 rush attempts (6th), 56 targets (15th) and 48 red zone touches (5th). Allowing 5.2 yards per rush attempt (31st) and 144.2 yards rushing (27th) are clear indicators of the struggles of the Giants defense. It hasn’t been a safe bet to put a team’s playoff chances in the hands of QB Kirk Cousins, and hopefully O’Connell has the competency to address this.

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WR Tee Higgins – $6,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel

Coming off back-to-back 1 reception games has Tee Higgins poised for a breakout when most players will be fading due to the recent box scores. Already with four WR6 or better performances this season, the Bengals receiver makes a boom or bust play that deserves consideration. Baltimore’s defense is bottom half in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7) and opponent pass attempts per game (34.9), creating the optimal environment for Cincinnati pass catchers. Higgins is far too discounted for the opportunity he sees on a per game basis in the fifth highest passing offense (62.1%) in the NFL. Ranking in the top 30 receivers in air yards (1,193), targets (111), routes run (498), receptions (75), receiving yards (1,042) and touchdowns (7). There is volatility to this play, so preferring it in GPP formats makes sense, but the upside of Higgins is comparable to those priced a tier above him, making him an awesome pivot.

TE Daniel Bellinger – $3,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel

The tight end position comes with plenty of solid options this weekend, but one stands out among the rest, especially on DraftKings. Since returning to action Week 13, Daniel Bellinger has become a safety blanket for Daniel Jones. This has resulted in 17 targets over five games and a solid floor for a minimum-priced play. Minnesota’s vulnerability against the pass hasn’t trickled into tight end production, allowing only 63 receptions to the position on the season. However, the Vikings have surrendered six touchdowns to the position, and if Bellinger finds his way into the end zone this week, he’ll become one of the best tight end plays. When building Giants stacks or looking for salary-saving plays, do not skim past the best value option among flex-eligible players.

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