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Yahoo Daily Fantasy: NFL Week 7 Preview, Pricing & Value Plays

Geoff Ulrich



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Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to tackle all the largest contests for Week 7 in NFL DFS. This article will provide some first impressions of the upcoming slate, including some of the top matchups and value plays. It will discuss salaries and who sticks out at various tiers for Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks this week.

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Week 6 saw some of the main chalk on the main slate implode. Kareem Hunt got injured and landed on IR. The Browns will not have either of their top running backs available for their Thursday Night Football game against the Broncos. Dawson Knox (hand) will also likely miss some time, but the Bills are on a bye this week, so he may escape with just a one-game absence. There are 10 games on the main slate this week, as six teams have bye weeks.

Yahoo Daily Fantasy: Week 7 NFL First Look & Value Plays

QB Patrick Mahomes — $40

Patrick Mahomes was the feature in this spot last week against Washington, and while he did not break any slates, he was better than a lot of other higher-priced quarterbacks, going for 397 yards and two touchdowns. Despite there being only 10 games on the main slate this week, there are plenty of elite quarterback options, as the Rams, Cardinals and Chiefs all have implied team totals over 31 points. Going back to Mahomes is the best option, though. The matchup against Tennessee (who runs the most plays per game) is going to be fast paced, and despite playing three weak teams in the Jets, Colts and Jaguars, the Titans have still given up the fourth-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Maybe Kyler Murray has similar upside, but Mahomes has the best floor and upside of the week.

QB Matthew Stafford — $31

Matthew Stafford took advantage of a beaten-up Giants team last week by completing 78% of his 28 pass attempts and throwing four touchdowns through the air. That game was like a scrimmage for the Rams, and this week likely will not be much different. Los Angeles enters with the largest implied team total of the week at 32.75 (as of writing) and are playing a Lions team that is last in the league in yards per attempt against (9.2). Even if Stafford plays three quarters, the Rams receivers are going to be open all day downfield, so a big game even in limited action is on tap. Stafford’s price also came down for some reason, which just makes him more attractive.

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QB Justin Fields — $22

This feels like a week where paying up for an elite quarterback is a must, but a cheap quarterback playing Tampa Bay should pique interest. Justin Fields finally flashed some rushing upside last week, as he ran for 43 yards on the ground on six carries. His 8 yards per carry was expected from him from the get-go, but better late than never. Teams are throwing 41.8 times against Tampa Bay, who plays at the fastest pace in the NFL. Hurts went off in garbage time last week against Tampa, and there is reason to think Fields can pay off this small salary by doing something similar in Week 7.

RB Derrick Henry — $40

For other players, one might be worried about the fact he was coming off a 23-touch game (143 yards) on a short week. Luckily, this is Derrick Henry. The Chiefs have given up 5.2 yards per carry this year, although it is worth noting that they have held opposing running backs under 50 yards rushing in their last two games. Those running backs were not Henry, though, who is averaging 27 carries per game and on pace to more than double his career high in receptions. Be a big spender and do not worry about price.

RB Darrell Henderson Jr. — $27

Darrell Henderson Jr. offers somewhat similar upside to Henry but will not cost as much. Though the Titans – Chiefs game should be a back-and-forth battle, this game between the Rams and Lions could be as one-sided as any game all season. The Rams have attempted the ninth-most red-zone rushes this year, and Henderson is locked into a nearly every-down role, as he has played 80% of the snaps in two of his last three games; he only played less in Week 5 due to injury. His price has come up a bit for Week 6 but not enough considering the spot for the Rams offense.

RB Damien Harris — $18

Harris posted his first 100-yard rushing day of the year last week in the Patriots’ overtime loss to the Cowboys. His 19 touches were his second highest of the season, and he likely would have had an even bigger day if he had not needed to come off for a couple of plays in the red zone, where he promptly lost on a sure touchdown. The Jets are great opponents for the Harris, as they have ceded six touchdowns to opposing running backs and the most fantasy points to the position. Teams are running the ball 30.8 times per game against the Jets, the third most in the league. Harris is a great upside play at under $20 in a spot where he could easily find the end zone multiple times again.

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WR Davante Adams — $35

Davante Adams had a slow day against the Bears in a game where the touchdowns flowed to different sources. Green Bay is running a slightly more balanced attack this year, but they turn to Adams to take over a game when needed, and he has the kind of matchup that may lead to another breakout. Washington’s corners have been abused by top-level talent in 2021 and have allowed the most receptions and second-most yards to opposing wide receivers this year. Green Bay comes in with a 29.25 implied team total in this spot, and Adams (and the rest of the Packers skill players) look like solid pivot plays this week, with all eyes on the Rams, Chiefs and Titans.

WR A.J. Brown — $24

Speaking of the Titans, it was nice to see A.J. Brown finally get off the mat in 2021 and post his first solid game of the year. He had a monster second half against the Bills’ vaunted pass defense, going for seven receptions and 91 yards while making several big plays down the stretch. This is a great development for Titans fans and for fantasy purposes, as Brown has looked out of sorts most of the year, possibly dealing with the aftermath of last year’s knee surgery. If he is healthier, the sky is the limit against the Chiefs, who have ceded monster games to other marquee wide receivers multiple times in 2021. Considering the 57-point over/under, Brown is a healthy value play (if healthy) for Week 7.

WR Robert Woods — $20

With the massive 32.75 implied team total the Rams sport, chasing after some of their potential undervalued offensive weapons is not only a good idea, it may also be a necessity to stay up with the field. In terms of receivers, the pendulum swung back to Cooper Kupp last week (who caught nine passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns), but there is no reason Robert Woods cannot grab some of that share back. He had 12 catches the week prior against another weak secondary in Seattle, and the tendency for the Lions to overplay Kupp will likely be strong. Woods is a great GPP target at $20 flat.

WR Allen Robinson — $19

Allen Robinson might be the most intriguing boom/bust play of the week at wide receiver. He is yet to catch more than four passes in a game with Justin Fields as his quarterback and has a season high of just 63 yards. Still, he is playing the Buccaneers this week, who push every team they face into throwing the ball more. Tampa does not just push team towards the pass, they also allow more pass completions, especially to wide receivers, who have 91 catches against them, third most in the league. Robinson’s sub-$20 salary means taking a one-week stab is worth it considering against this opponent.

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TE Mark Andrews — $20

Mark Andrews came back to down earth slightly after he posted a monster Week 5 line against the Colts. He was not needed much in a walkover win against the Chargers but still managed five catches and a touchdown in a game where Lamar Jackson only threw 27 times for 167 yards. Andrews is turning into one of the top-level tight end, as he is being treated as the de facto No. 1 option for Jackson in this offense. The Bengals defense may have good numbers in defending tight ends this year, but they allowed T.J. Hockenson — the first elite receiving tight end they have faced — to lead the Lions in receiving last week. Keep playing Andrews at these prices, as he appears matchup-proof at this point.

TE Mike Gesicki — $18

It is hard to trust anything to do with such dysfunctional Miami, but Mike Gesicki’s volume and target share is hard to bypass. He averaged 8.5 targets over the Dolphins last four games, and with Miami’s defense allowing a ton of yards and points, it means increased opportunity for all receivers — Miami is attempting 39.5 pass attempts per game, seventh most in the league. Even if the Dolphins get a receiver or two back healthy, there is no run game or defense to slow down the targets, and Gesicki, who has no touchdowns this year, is overdue to find the end zone.

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