This Saturday of the NHL DFS season is chock full of crazy matchups with some high expected goals for. First off, let’s remind everyone of the Votts media list and a few links to follow.
When you are making your teams, one needs to make sure your goalie is confirmed and starting. Sites like Dailyfaceoff.com, Leftwinglock.com, and Goaliepost.com are great places for information. Another great source exists in team the form of team beat writers. Jeff has created a list on Twitter @Votts_DFS  for all of the NHL teams, and a separate list of all the beat writers for you to follow, it’s a great tool and a necessity. The advanced stats that I use and reference in this article come from Corsica.hockey and naturalstattrick.com.
If you have any questions at all, don’t hesitate to contact me on our premium Slack chat, or you can hit me up on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS.
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A Quick Note…
There are two games on the afternoon schedule. The picks below cover the eight game main schedule.
Full Schedule For Saturday December 8th, 2018
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Prices are in DraftKings format unless noted. FanDuel prices will be included as well.
NHL DFS GPP Plays For Saturday
High Priced Shots
Sidney Crosby ($7,900) — The play becomes a nice one given how porous Ottawa is against Pittsburgh and vice versa. One can even go for the more expensive double center stack (Sidney Crosby — $7,100). That idea is too expensive for FanDuel where Crosby is $8,800 and Malkin is $8,100. Consider the Senators’ penalty kill is right around 71%. These are games that take on a life of their own so do not be shocked to see some Ottawa and Pittsburgh stacks galore here. The key is to differentiate. Crosby’s shot share has trended upward but the Malkin line will be where the fun is at. Look to the defensemen, if need be (or whomever else roams on the power play).
David Pastrnak ($7,300) — Pastrnak loves playing against Toronto and it shows. He scored two more goals in their last meeting. Combine that with a hat trick in the first encounter and that’s five goals and six points in just two games. That’s Brayden Point against New Jersey level success there! Pastrnak tallying 11 goals in 12 home contests is a slight influence as well on what is expected to be an electric night in Boston. Pastrnak’s price is more steep on FanDuel at $8,400 but again, this is Toronto. If a team can get Boston out of its mini scoring slump (7 goals in five games), it is the Maple Leafs.
Cam Atkinson ($7,000) — Atkinson tallying 11 goals in his last ten games is not that surprising given scoring is again up this year. His confidence sustaining is the biggest surprise, however. The higher volume shot generation and scoring chances were always there, but all too fleeting. Through 27 games, Atkinson is averaging 3.8 shots per night. Playing with Artemi Panarin never hurts but the Capitals are a team that allows opportunities. It comes down to can their goaltender close the door. Washington allows 3.57 goals per game on the road. Atkinson’s FanDuel price is a decent $7,300. Expect the winger to go under owned compared to Nikita Kucherov and Mikko Rantanen.
Into The Middle
Carl Soderberg ($4,600) — Soderberg maintains himself as a decent tournament play despite his slightly increased price. His FanDuel price is still extremely reasonable at $4,400. Soderberg fired goals into the net in his last two games and does see decent power play time. Tampa Bay will give up chances and shots (34 per 60 in the time Louis Domingue has been in net). His moderate shot volume at two per game along with two chances per contest is enough to warrant considering him. This becomes almost like a value pick in some ways. Tampa’s depth matchups get cratered pretty easily against second and third lines.
Evgenii Dadonov ($5,600) — It is acceptable to go for the goals as the Rangers and Panthers could easily combine for seven goals or more. Dadonov has 39 shots in his last ten games along with 30+ scoring chances. That becomes one outrageous number but his line is generating at a robust rate. The more chances lead to the potential for more goals. Yes, Henrik Lundqvist could stonewall these plans but the potential is high. Defensively, Florida has been just as porous in the last ten games so do expect Ranger stacks to counter here. Game stacks are possible. Just watch the New York lines to make sure they do not change. Dadonov prices in at $7,100 on FanDuel so maybe Kevin Hayes or Filip Chytil could be viable alternatives on there.
Nick Schmaltz ($4,500) — Schmaltz features as a high danger tournament and cash play because of volatility. He could doughnut like he did the other night or produce above value which he did for three straight games before. Now, if assists, are not optimal. There is some other risks. Evander Kane is just $5,000 on DraftKings and his 3.5 -4 shot per game volume is hard to pass up at that price. Even Yanni Gourde at $4,200 intrigues as a buy-low candidate. He has slumped averaging just 1.7 points per game (DraftKings scoring), but could bounce back at any time. Brad Matchand at $5,600 is another DraftKings only option. Among FanDuel choices. Timo Meier and Elias Lindholm are right around player average ($6,400 and $6,000 respectively).
Throwing Some Darts
Tanner Pearson ($3,600) — Pearson continues to get mostly top six minutes and gets it tonight against Ottawa, who is among the three worst teams in giving up daily fantasy points. Three goals and five points in his last nine games has drawn some people to the winger. 15-16 minute average time on ice benefits a lot of players here. Price relief will be plenty tonight and needed. The smart thing is to look around and take risks here. Pearson comes in at $4,500 on FanDuel but Drake Batherson is just $3,700 for Ottawa.
Chris Tierney ($3,800) — This delivers danger as Tierney should be elevated due to the Matt Duchene injury. The problem lies in who his linemates may be but the idea is to match up the Tierney line with the Malkin or third line for Pittsburgh. That means more opportunities and Tierney is sub-$4,000 on FanDuel as well. Derek Stepan and Jared McCann are intriguing options as well on Saturday night.
Goading The Goalies
Again, our best bet with this slate is to simply wait for confirmations to come in. The problem lies in that there are only a couple confirmations and likely goaltenders so far. Morning skates reveal a few more but alas sometimes the wait can be right until warm-ups on a busy Saturday. Looking towards the lesser games tonight might actually pay off in GPP’s. Also, keep an eye on who starts for teams on no rest and some road opponents.
There are several teams playing with no rest. Mike Smith becomes a play if he starts tonight because Nashville has been banged up and struggling a bit of late. Even Adin Hill, if he starts, is worth a shot because of low price against a San Jose team that allows nearly 3.5 goals per game on the road.
More backups playing than usual means the likelihood for more goals. Pittsburgh and Ottawa becomes scary and so does New York and Florida. Colorado and Tampa Bay features high variance as well. Toronto and Boston features a possibility of a 4-3 or 5-4 contest.
More picks and choices will be available on Slack and social media later along with stacking possibilities and injury updates.
Best of luck on Saturday! This will be a fun and nutty ride.
