The Spotlight Plays of the Day will feature a couple of Awesemo’s top plays of the day, followed by additional analysis from myself, Jake Hari, aka Tommienation1 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Johnny Gaudreau ($6,700 DK/$7,900 FD)
“Gaudreau is one of the top plays on the night against a Ducks defense that hasn’t been as sound as they were earlier in the year. On DraftKings, he’s under $7K, which is underpriced for the upside he brings to the table.”
The Flames’ winger (“A” points grade) has a 16.1 individual Corsi For per 60 minutes (iCF/60) over the last three weeks, and will get an excellent matchup against the non-Ryan Getzlaf lines tonight. Both the second and third lines for the Ducks allow over 28 Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes (SCA/60), while the Ducks as a team have surprisingly allowed the most SCA/60 in March. A sniper like Gaudreau could get on the scoresheet here at even-strength and/or the power-play, as the Ducks have been short-handed the 3rd-most times in the NHL this season.
Evgeni Malkin ($7,700 DK/$9,200 FD)
“Malkin disappointed his owners last night with an underwhelming performance against the Islanders, but he should get a chance to right the ship tonight against the Canadiens.”
The matchup against Montreal is one of the best on the night, which is part of the reason Malkin gets an “A” points grade in Awesemo’s player rankings. The Canadiens have allowed the 8th-most SCA/60 and 5th-most High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in March. He should see a healthy dose of the opposing top-6, which is good news as both of Montreal’s top two lines allow over 29 SCA/60. Add in the top power-play time against the league’s 29th-ranked penalty-kill, and you’ve got yourself a very strong play in all formats tonight.
Christian Dvorak ($4,300 DK/$5,000 FD)
“Dvorak has quietly produced very well over the last few weeks, and the advanced numbers tell us that this isn’t a fluke. At this price, he’s one of the best value centers on the board on DraftKings.”
Dvorak’s numbers are, in fact, pretty solid over the last couple weeks. In his last 10 games, he leads the Coyotes in goals, individual Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes (iSCF/60), and individual High-Danger Chances For per 60 minutes (iHDCF/60). Because he’s not on the top line, he may get overlooked, but being on the second line will be advantageous for Dvorak tonight, as he will avoid Ryan O’Reilly at even-strength. He will continue to get power-play time on the second-unit, so there’s a lot to like for this “B” FanDuel value tonight.
Vince Dunn ($3,400 DK/$4,100 FD)
“While we usually don’t like to chase points after a player has a big game, the underlying numbers show that Dunn deserves some consideration on a nightly basis, and tonight is no exception.”
Dunn’s price on FanDuel makes him one of the better value d-men on the slate at a near-punt price. He has been shooting much more (15.2 iCF/60 in March), and is also seeing his minutes creep up to around 20 over his last couple games. With the Bruins dealing with a handful of injuries, take advantage of Dunn’s low price, shot volume, and power-play time.