It is a medium-sized nine-game slate in the NHL tonight, and that offers plenty of options for NHL DFS picks. Florida, Dallas, Toronto and Edmonton are off tonight, meaning there is no need to sift which high-end picks to use between Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk or Jason Robertson. As always, Stokastic subscribers are encouraged to check in with the members-only Discord for lineup/injury information as it becomes available.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Dylan Larkin (DET at MTL): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $7,300
Despite not producing as an elite center, Dylan Larkin is on pace for 27 goals, 77 points and over 250 shots. That is still a very productive season, and he’s not being priced anywhere close to the high-end center options on this slate.
Going into Montreal is clearly the main draw for using Larkin and the Red Wings. Not only are the Canadiens in the bottom 10 at even strength and penalty kill by all significant defensive metrics this season, but those metrics have worsened as the season’s passed. They are missing a half-dozen regular forwards due to injury and all this gives Larkin a tremendous matchup.
Tyler Bertuzzi looks to be back in the lineup for Detroit, but Larkin has the second-highest DraftKings projection for centers $6,000 or less and fifth on FanDuel for pivots under $8,000. He has solid value on either site – better on DraftKings – and can be used as a one-off option in any format for this slate.
Mikael Backlund (CGY vs. CHI): DraftKings – $4,800 | FanDuel – $5,400
It has quietly been a very good season for Mikael Backlund, who doesn’t get top power play time for Calgary but is enjoying a three-year high in goals per game and a career-high in shots per game with 3.2. In his 48 outings this season, Backlund has managed 16 DraftKings shot bonuses, or one every three games. Last season, he had just 10 in 82 appearances. Those additional shots on goal have given him a reasonable floor to work with in the fantasy game, even if his point production is relatively constant from prior campaigns.
Chicago visiting Calgary tonight is a part of Backlund’s appeal. The Blackhawks are allowing the fifth-most shots and goals per minute at five-on-five over the last 20 games, which is consistent with their entire season. There are no matchup concerns for Backlund’s line, a trio controlling nearly 72% of the expected goals when they’re on the ice, a number that is almost unbelievable.
The larger concern with Backlund, and all of Calgary, is ownership. They are cheap and at home in a great matchup, and thus they are likely to draw a lot of attention. It is up to DFS players how to navigate this, but Backlund’s price, performance and matchup make him a desirable option in tournaments tonight by himself or with his linemates.
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Winger
Kyle Connor (WPG vs. BUF): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $8,600
One concern with Nikolaj Ehlers returning to the lineup for Winnipeg this month was him cutting into ice time for the other top wingers like Kyle Connor. That hasn’t really mattered as Connor is skating 20:13 with Ehlers back in the lineup, nearly identical to what he was doing without him (20:28). Connor has put up seven goals, 11 points and 40 shots in his last 10 games with Ehlers on the roster.
Buffalo is in town, and they aren’t a particularly difficult matchup. The team ranks 19th by expected goals against per minute at five-on-five in their last 20 games, worse than teams like Detroit and Ottawa. They are also giving up the second-most shots per minute when on the penalty kill in those contests, but great goaltending has saved the Sabres. They can’t rely on that every night, and it makes for a solid matchup at all offensive strengths for Connor.
Stokastic NHL DFS projections have Connor fourth in fantasy points tonight on DraftKings, third on FanDuel, and he’s cheaper than all those projected ahead of him. That level of value could draw some ownership, as he’s projected for double digits on both sites, but his talent and matchup mean he should be considered in all formats.
Evan Rodrigues (COL vs. ANA): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $6,200
Anaheim visiting Colorado is where tonight’s slate is going to be made or broken (and they might be the same thing). The Ducks are last by shots allowed per minute on the penalty kill over their last 20 games, last in shots allowed per minute at five-on-five (and 18% more than the next-closest team), last in goals allowed per minute at five-on-five and last in goals allowed per minute at all strengths. There may not be a better matchup in the league than being at home to Anaheim, which is why this is such an important game.
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Evan Rodrigues has seen his role diminished with the return of Valeri Nichushkin, skating under 18 minutes in back-to-back games and being pushed to the second power play unit. He is still playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon, though, and their line is generating 4.0 expected goals and 3.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Those are great offensive numbers and speak to their dominance since being assembled.
A lot of Colorado players will have double-digit ownership, Rodrigues being no exception. However, he is top 3 by DraftKings winger NHL DFS projections for those priced less than $6,000, giving him great value. He should be considered in Colorado stacks tonight.
With Rodrigues listed as a center on FanDuel, users of that site should consider Clayton Keller (ARI, $6,700) as he leads FanDuel winger NHL DFS projections for those priced under $7,000.
Dylan Guenther (ARI vs. STL): DraftKings – $3,300 | FanDuel – $4,000
Arizona is still a bad team, but they do have young players on the upswing. One of those young players is Dylan Guenther, the ninth overall draft pick in 2021. Following his return from the World Junior tournament earlier this month, he has scored three times in 10 games, landing 26 shots on goal. In that span, he leads all Arizona forwards in shots per minute at five-on-five which sounds like faint praise, but that level of shot production at his price is something worth paying attention to.
St. Louis is in town tonight and they have gotten a couple players back from injury but are still without top two-way center Ryan O’Reilly. Guenther will often face the St. Louis second line with Vladimir Tarasenko and Ivan Barbashev. That line has been awful defensively for the Blues, allowing 3.6 expected goals and 3.3 actual goals against per 60 minutes. Arizona should be able to create with that Blues faction on the ice, and that’s good news for the shot-happy Guenther.
The Blues are the least-penalized team in the NHL by a good margin, putting more emphasis on five-on-five play in this matchup. That brings Guenther into play as a salary-saving one-off.
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Defense
Roman Josi (NSH vs. NJ): DraftKings – $8,400 | FanDuel – $8,700
One of the concerns for Roman Josi’s production was a drop in ice time. His last 10 games had seen him in the 21- to 22-minute range twice, having done so just once through his first 37 games. However, he has averaged 25:18 over his last three outings, and the team announced defenseman Alex Carrier will be out for several weeks, which should give Josi even more ice time.
Ice time is important for someone like Josi because a lot of his fantasy value is tied to blocks and shots, and more ice time helps accumulate those. He has failed to post either a shot or block bonus on DraftKings in just 11 of his 47 contests, showing good consistency for a variance-heavy sport. All this pushes him to the top of the projection leaderboard for both DraftKings and FanDuel, which makes sense when seeing his price relative to the other defensemen. However, his high floor and expected output still make him a solid value at his high price.
Jared Spurgeon (MIN vs. PHI): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $6,100
On the topic of ice time, Jared Spurgeon has been getting more of it lately. He averaged 20:56 a game over his first 39 games but issues on the blue line have given him more responsibility. As a result, he’s exceeded that ice time mark in seven straight contests, averaging 23:13 a night. The 33-year-old has three goals and 20 shots in that span.
A new wrinkle in Spurgeon’s game is shot blocking. He averaged 1.6 blocks per game over his prior three seasons, a number that’s jumped to 2.3 this season. That has led to the Canadian blue liner averaging a DraftKings shot block bonus in over one-third of his outings this season. Additional ice time should only help in this regard.
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The top of the DraftKings projection leaderboard for rearguards priced under $5,000 is Spurgeon and that gives him wonderful value for tonight. He is not getting top power play minutes but the Flyers have had an excellent penalty kill for months and the focus on five-on-five should help Spurgeon’s case here.
Minnesota’s captain is priced much higher on FanDuel, so for a more reasonably priced option on that site, consider his teammate Jonas Brodin ($4,300).
Goalie
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB vs. BOS): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $8,200
The Stokastic GoalieStats section has five goaltenders projected for at least 29 saves for this slate, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is one of them. What separates him from the others is that he has the lowest expected goals against of those five netminders, carrying the highest shutout probability. He is also projected for roughly half the ownership of his pricing/projection comparable for this slate on DraftKings in Juuse Saros. Either is fine, but for DraftKings users looking to differentiate a bit from a higher-owned goalie, Vasilevskiy is one of the top choices.
Where the Lightning goalie is more expensive on FanDuel, a cheaper option in a better matchup is Dan Vladar (CGY, $7,300). He is second among FanDuel goalie NHL DFS projections and has a very low cost.
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Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NJ1: Palat-Hischier-Bratt
In nearly 125 minutes together at five-on-five, this New Jersey trio has generated 3.3 expected goals and 3.4 actual goals per 60 minutes, which are very good offensive numbers. Over Nashville’s last 20 games, they are allowing the fourth-most shot attempts, third-most shots and third-most expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Elite goaltending has saved them but even Saros has allowed at least five goals twice in his last five starts. He still has a .913 save percentage in those five starts, a testament to the volume he faces. New Jersey should have no problem creating offense in this game, it’s just a matter of finishing the scoring chances.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this Devils trio over 4% top-2 stack probability but carrying ownership between 1% and 3%, depending on the site. It gives them good leverage on a medium-sized slate and their reasonable price means another mid-priced stack can be used alongside them.
STL1: Saad-Thomas-Kyrou
There is not much ownership projected for this St. Louis trio and it makes a bit of sense. The Blues have two playable scoring lines and this one is much more expensive. On DraftKings, this Blues top line is more expensive than the top lines from Calgary, New Jersey, Nashville, and Detroit. The same applies to those lines on FanDuel but remove New Jersey and add Boston. Regardless, the abundance of similar options at a lower price could keep ownership in check here.
Even without Pavel Buchnevich alongside them, the St. Louis top forward unit has still been able to generate 3.4 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season. Two of them are also on the top power play unit and Arizona not only boasts a poor penalty kill but is the second-most penalized team in the league. A reasonable price, low projected ownership, and a great matchup bring this Blues threesome into play for DFS tournaments.
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