Auston Matthews, Alex Ovechkin & NHL DFS Picks: For more analysis on the slate for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft, check out Nolan Kelly’s Line Change article before lock, as well as Awesemo’s NHL Projections and Rankings. You can also subscribe to the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel to get notifications when “Hit The Ice” (4ET Weekdays) goes live!
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The advanced stats that I use and reference in this article come from naturalstattrick.com.
NHL Schedule for Wednesday, October 1st
| AWAY – Opening line | O/U | Home – Opening line | Time – EST |
| Ottawa | 6.5 | Toronto -273 | 7:00 PM |
| Washington | 5.5 | St Louis -147 | 8:00 PM |
| Vancouver | 5.5 | Edmonton -129 | 10:00 PM |
| San Jose | 6.5 | Vegas -174 | 10:30 PM |
NHL DFS
It is opening night for the NHL and man, it feels like it’s been a long time! There was preseason DFS, but we had to deal with constant changes to rosters, and Draftking’s decided to use $5,500 salary across the board for every player. We have a smaller four-game slate tonight, but there are some decent contests to kick the year off. The St. Louis Blues will open the year as reigning Stanley Cup champions and take on Alex Ovechkin and company. Then we will close the night out with a rematch of the controversial matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and the San Jose Sharks. Here are your Power Plays for tonight. Good Luck!
DraftKings & FanDuel Centers
Auston Matthews – TOR vs OTT – $7,700
Matthews and the Leafs should be the chalkiest spot on the slate. They open the year up against the Ottawa Senators as a -273 favorite according to Vegas oddsmakers. Toronto’s top line was lethal last year and they haven’t changed the lines this year. The Leafs top line carried a 57.3 CF% while creating over 16 high-danger scoring chances per 60, all with an expected goals rate of 3.52. Matthews averaged over four shots per game for the final ten games last year including the playoffs. If you recall, they matched up with the Bruins, who made it to the Finals as a great defensive shutdown team.
Last year, the Senators allowed a league-high 3.67 goals against per game, 65.43 CA/60 and over 35 shots per game. The Senators penalty kill was also in the cellar for the majority of the year and ended the season with the 23rd-ranked penalty kill. Matthews plays on the top power play unit alongside his regular line mate Andreas Johnsson, and they make for a nice combo or mini-stack. The Leafs should be all over the Senators and scoring chances should be plentiful.
Cody Glass – VGK vs SJ – $2,800
This game is going to be a great game to watch live. These teams are arch enemies, going back to last year’s playoffs. In a controversial game seven, the Sharks erased a 3 – 0 deficit due to a phantom five-minute major penalty called on Cody Eakin. San Jose buried four power play goals in four minutes to give them a 4-3 lead in the third. The Golden Knights tied it back up at the end of the period, but lost in overtime and ended their year. Needless to say, these teams aren’t friends as they faced off in preseason and accrued 114 penalty minutes with 20 separate penalties in the third period. That also led to the Sharks’ Evander Kane receiving a three-game misconduct for pushing a referee. So San Jose will be without Kane to start the year.
Glass makes for an interesting tournament play and a great value to play along with a stack of the whole second line. Playing between Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty should give him a fast track to finding good scoring chances, as both wingers demand attention at all times. Glass has also been practicing on the first power play unit alongside his even-strength line mates, giving you full correlation. If Glass can put a couple shots on net and tally a point, he smashes his salary expectation. This game has a great total according to Vegas and there should be an ample amount of scoring chances to go around.
DraftKings & FanDuel Wingers
Alexander Ovechkin – WSH @ STL – $8,000
Ovechkin is going to be a frequent recipient of the shot bonus on Draftkings this year and is a cash staple on most nights. He will see the tough matchup against the likes of Ryan O’Reilly, but he will still find a way to get pucks on net.
Vladimir Tarasenko – STL vs WSH – $6,700
After winning the Stanley Cup last year, Tarasenko dealt with some lingering injuries. He’s coming into the year healthy and he remains one of the elite snipers in the league. Playing on a line with Jaden Schwartz and Brayden Schenn, the trio has great chemistry. Tarasenko’s line has a larger sample size; with a 56 CF%, they are creating 34 shots per 60 and over 26 high-danger chances per 60. Washington found a way to shore up some of their defense by the end of the year, but with the pace of their top line, they are prone to giving up chances. The Ovechkin line allowed 15 high danger chances per 60 last year and their penalty kill was in the bottom eight, right next to Ottawa. The spirits will be high and it could be an emotional game for the Blues on banner-raising night.
Brady Tkachuk – OTT @ TOR – $5,200
If you’re looking to go the ownership contrarian route, Brady Tkachuk and the Senators top line make sense. Tkachuk finished the year off strong, shooting the puck in bunches while the offense revolved around him and the top line. Tkachuk is a strong forward with a bunch of talent. Toronto was infamous last year for playing fast hockey and they leaned more on the offensive side of things. The Leafs would give up just as much as they took, allowing the eighth-most shots against per game, and they had a penalty kill in the bottom third of the league. You will need separation in the big dollar GPPs and the Senators top line could get there.
DraftKings & FanDuel Defensemen
Brent Burns – SJ @ VGK – $7,000
Burns is the ultimate defenseman for DFS. He logs a ton of ice time, generates a ton of shots and blocks and should figure into the both score bonuses for shots and blocks regularly. His ceiling is massive and he’s in play every night.
Thomas Chabot – OTT @ TOR – $5,500
If you are leaning on the contrarian side of things for your tournament lineups, Chabot is a great addition. Defensemen versus the Maple Leafs was an actual thing last year. They gave up a ton of production to blue liners, and Chabot could exceed expectations here. Chabot is the main quarterback for the Senators and he is leaned on heavily on the extra man advantage, and contributes in multiple categories across the stat sheet.
Vince Dunn – STL vs WSH – $4,400
Dunne is a solid defenseman that will notch a couple shots and blocks, but the main attraction is that he has been in the top power play unit for the Blues to start the year. I mentioned earlier that the Caps have had a tough time with their penalty kill and with Dunne quarterbacking the top unit, he should factor into the scoring if it’s done on the extra man advantage.
DraftKings and FanDuel Stacks
TOR 1 – Andreas Johnsson – Auston Matthews –William Nylander
The Leafs will be the chalk of the night, but it’s for a reason. The Senators didn’t do much to shore their team up in the of-season, and I fully expect this game to be a fast-paced game with plenty of goals scored. The Maple Leafs top line generates 40 shots for per 60, 48 scoring chances per 60, and over 16 high-danger chances per 60. Ottawa has their hands full tonight. If you end up stacking the Leafs, make sure you do something to separate from the field, as they will be very popular.
VGK 2 – Max Pacioretty – Cody Glass – Mark Stone
Vegas’ top six is solid, whether Cody Glass or Paul Stastny are the pivot. We get salary relief to start the year with Glass and they should get the better matchups. The Sharks will be without Evander Kane, serving his suspension, and after losing Joe Pavelski, their depth is going to take a little bit of a hit. Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty generate a ton of high-danger scoring chances and they have been very strong defensively. Vegas makes my second favorite stack of the night.
