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The advanced stats that I use and reference in this article come from naturalstattrick.com.
NHL Schedule for Friday, October 4th
AWAY – the opening line | O/U | HOME | TIME – EST |
Washington | 5.5 | NY Islanders -120 | 7:00 PM |
Winnipeg | 6.5 | New Jersey -150 | 7:00 PM |
Toronto -155 | 6.5 | Columbus | 7:00 PM |
Vegas -120 | 6.5 | San Jose | 10:30 PM |
DraftKings & FanDuel Centers
John Tavares – TOR vs CBJ – $7,100
Tavares is always a contender for the nightly shot bonus. His projections suggest upwards of four shots and 1.2 real points per game. Columbus gives up goals and scoring chances galore no matter who is in the net. Some early numbers suggest the Blue Jackets may yield as many as 34 to 35 shots per 60 against teams over .500. This is the kind of short slate where you want players who can put the pucks on goal. Tavares scored on Wednesday against Ottawa and had at least three good high-danger scoring chances. If that line can get some time against Columbus’ bottom defensive pairings, look out.
Cody Glass – VGK vs SJS – $3,500
Glass looked great against San Jose and it does not hurt that he was flanked by Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone. Stone is one of the best players in the league at creating offense (his takeaway rate is the best among all forwards in the league). As long as Glass is priced this low, you can plug him in everywhere—cash and GPP lineups alike. It’s difficult to project what his shot maps and ceiling will be. However, the forward is quick to the open parts of the ice and can create space for himself.
VGS2 doesn’t have a complete correlation when it comes to the power play. On the other hand, it generated over a 2/3 expected goal rate and 60%+ possession numbers against San Jose on Wednesday night.
DraftKings & FanDuel Wingers
Taylor Hall – NJD vs WPG – $7,500
“Hall Pass” is back. After missing the entire second half of the season with a knee injury, Hall returned during the preseason and picked up right where he left off. He looked every bit like the player who won the MVP two seasons ago and is going up against a Winnipeg team tonight who gave up six goals to the New York Rangers last night. Winnipeg will trade chances plenty with New Jersey, but they will allow some wide-open looks. Laurent Brossoit can’t stop them all, right?
Hall-Hischier-Palmieri is going to be a highly owned line on Friday night, but worth the ownership.
Alex Ovechkin – WSH @ NYI – $8,000
If there was a person more suited for the shot and point bonuses, it would be Ovechkin. Once upon a time, the winger could easily average over five shots a night. Though he does not do that quite as often now, the left winger still can execute at that level for segments of time. The Capitals forward should enjoy a plus matchup again tonight against the Islanders, whom he averages over a point a game against. Yes, he is over $8.000 on FanDuel as well, but he should be rostered in places.
DraftKings & FanDuel Defensemen
Ryan Pulock – NYI vs WSH – $4,200
Pulock can be part of a contrarian Islanders stack or played as a one-off. Either way, the defenseman should see more ice time this year and more power-play time. That has been what we were told from New York’s coaching staff during training camp. We will see if that pans out but Pulock gets an increased shot share and elevated chances. This is always a plus in daily fantasy. He will block a few shots a game as a bonus. Pulock is a lower-priced alternative compared to players like John Carlson and Brent Burns.
Josh Morrissey – WPG @ NJD – $4,300
Morrissey is the man in Winnipeg for the time being, while Dustin Byfuglien still hasn’t joined the team due to personal reasons. The Jets also lost Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers, leaving Morrissey all the ice time he can handle at even strength and he will also quarterback the top power-play unit. The Devils will still give up their fair amount of shots and chances. New Jersey has to play with more pace and teams know it. Therefore, Morrissey should have chances. Also, New Jersey was in the top third in penalties taken, so Winnipeg stands to have a few power plays tonight.
DraftKings & FanDuel Stacks
TOR 2 – Johnsson – Matthews – Nylander
Toronto’s top two lines could easily be among the highest owned on the night. In theory, they should be. Columbus is going to give up chances galore, though shot suppression will be interesting. The problem with the preseason is often how things translate from scaled minutes to full minutes. What do we mean? Simply, preseason minutes are scaled to compartments of time. Players are measured differently. During the regular season, the intensity and energy levels are different. That results in better plays like the second Toronto line, which should have a plus matchup tonight against Columbus’ bottom six.
WSH 2 – Vrana – Eller – Oshie
It is okay to slide back into a cheaper bracket tonight. Yes, Jakub Vrana was excellent against St. Louis. He generated three scoring chances, five shots on net, and was rewarded with an overtime goal. Now, playing Ovechkin, or even parts of the top power-play unit, is fine. However, this could be a good stack to try with the shorter four-game slate. Also, this could allow one to sneak John Carlson in if one wants to mix and match in their stacking.
NJD 1 – Hall – Hischier – Palmieri
Going to have to pick on the Jets’ weak defensive corps here. The Devils top line is too good, and even on a night like this, New Jersey’s second line may be one to try and use in a lineup here or there. Winnipeg’s defensemen are bad aside from Morrissey. It is entertaining, but ugly to watch. The power-play correlation is also big here tonight.