We have a healthy nine-game slate ahead of us on Thursday night so let us here at Awesemo help you with your NHL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy hockey lineups the evening. Be sure to check out our Premium Slack chat throughout the day for lineup information, as that type of information has come late in the day frequently. Those edges matter in DFS.
DraftKings & FanDuel NHL DFS Picks | Feb. 18
NHL DFS Picks: Centers
Sean Couturier (PHI vs NYR)
DraftKings – $4,900
FanDuel – $6,600
The Flyers return from a long COVID layoff that will see their lineup look fairly sparse, but they also see the return of Couturier. Remember, he had been injured prior to their outbreak and returned briefly before the team’s woes commenced. Couturier gets a Rangers team that is bottom-10 by expected goals against at five-on-five and will be without Jacob Trouba, one of their most reliable penalty killers. We see how much his price has dropped on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, making this recommendation more site-dependent. All the same, Couturier is fine to use by himself or in a stack tonight.
Tomas Hertl (SJ at STL)
DraftKings – $5,000
FanDuel – $5,700
The Sharks get a tough matchup tonight going into St. Louis, but the Blues are going to be very short-handed tonight. They’ve long been without Robert Thomas, Tyler Bozak and Vladimir Tarasenko, but it looks as if Jaden Schwartz is out tonight, and Colton Parayko is trending that way. That is four of St. Louis’s top nine forwards and their best two-way defenseman. Hertl has seen his shot rate decline a bit this year, but he’s never been a shot volume monster. Lining up on the second line should keep ownership off him, making him an ideal one-off.
NHL DFS Picks: Wingers
Anthony Beauvillier (NYI at PIT)
DraftKings – $2,500
FanDuel – $4,600
As evidenced by the pricing discrepancy here, DraftKings missed a price increase for Beauvillier, who returned from injury a couple days ago. In that return, he slotted in on the third line and played over 16 minutes. Going into Pittsburgh, the Islanders’ second line shouldn’t see much of the Sidney Crosby line from the Penguins, and that is an advantageous matchup for Beauvillier and company; with the Pittsburgh top line off the ice this season, the team controls fewer than 44 percent of the expected goals, a poor mark. Beauvillier e is a great min-priced punt on DraftKings today.
Jake DeBrusk (BOS vs NJ)
DraftKings – $4,500
FanDuel – $4,500
The Bruins have changed their lines around a bit, and that has put DeBrusk on the top line with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. He has had some time there in recent seasons, and the expected goal shares in all top-line combinations have been great; DeBrusk is over 60 percent with either Bergeron or Marchand, which isn’t a huge shock. While DeBrusk isn’t getting top power-play time yet, he has gotten slotting on arguably the best line in hockey at five-on-five. For those not wanting to pay up for the expensive Boston option, DeBrusk is the one-off to use here.
Filip Forsberg (NSH at CBJ)
DraftKings – $7,100
FanDuel – $7,400
One of the dirty secrets so far this season is Columbus has been very average defensively. Their expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five this year is mid-pack, and their actual goals against per 60 minutes is bottom five. For all of Nashville’s faults, Forsberg has been an absolute shot machine this year, posting over 4 shots per game, and he’s top 10 among all forwards in the league by shot rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five. He is also shooting 10 percent individually, and the team is shooting 6.4 percent with him on the ice (all at five-on-five), meaning these percentages aren’t out of whack, and he may in fact be a bit unlucky. He is a high-priced one-off for tonight that should come in at low ownership.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
K’Andre Miller (NYR at PHI)
DraftKings – $3,100
FanDuel – $3,900
The injury to Trouba has opened the path to a lot more minutes for rookie Miller. At this point, he’s probably their second-most reliable defenseman after Adam Fox, so he should cruise past 20 minutes in ice time while manning the second power-play unit. As mentioned in the section on Couturier, the Flyers will be missing a few regular for tonight’s game, and it’s also their first contest in over a week – a bit of rust is to be expected. The Rangers look a bit of a mess this year compared to 2019-20, but Miller’s price is far too cheap for his expected usage. It will rise over the coming weeks.
Vince Dunn (STL vs SJ)
DraftKings – $3,600
FanDuel – $3,900
Dunn’s big problem has long been ice time, as he averaged 16:16 per game last year and failed to crack 20 minutes in his first seven games this season. Since Jan. 31, though, he has averaged 20:28 a night and has hit each of the shot and block bonuses once in that span. Parayko likely missing tonight means more minutes for everyone, Dunn included. With St. Louis missing so many forwards as well, I suspect their defense will get more involved, and Dunn has been one of the best transition defensemen in hockey the last few years. He’s a fine pivot from Krug in St. Louis stacks or as a one-off in tournaments.
Jake Muzzin (TOR vs OTT)
DraftKings – $5,300
FanDuel – $4,400
Morgan Rielly keeps getting ownership because he’s on the top power-play unit with Auston Matthews, but Muzzin has more five-on-five points and way more five-on-five shots and blocks (44-to-30 in total) than Rielly does. He is cheaper and will come in at lower ownership. He also skated more than Rielly last night at five-on-five, which kind of shows the pecking order here (it was by about 20 seconds, but still). Avoiding the Rielly chalk and going to a much lower-owned Muzzin makes sense for those wanting to get a bit different with their Toronto stacks. He is even fine as a one-off in tournaments.
Goalie
John Gibson (ANA vs MIN)
DraftKings – $7,500
FanDuel – $6,900
The virtues of Gibson are often extolled here, but it’s worth going over the big one again; since the start of the 2017-18 season, Gibson is first by goals saved above expected at 52.72. No other goalie in that span is above 32, and there’s a bigger gap between Gibson and second-place Ben Bishop than Bishop and 14th-place Alexandar Georgiev. Time and time again, Anaheim’s netminder has proved himself not only one of the top goaltenders in the league, but maybe the best. He is at home today to a hobbled Minnesota team, and he’s very cheap on FanDuel. He makes more sense there, but his price is fine on DraftKings as well.
Top Stacks to Target:
WSH2: Vrana – Backstrom – Carlson
STL2: Hoffman – Schenn – Kyrou
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