It is a full day in the NHL today but a 10-game main slate tonight on DraftKings and FanDuel. It gives us plenty of opportunities to craft a successful NHL DFS picks lineup and we’re here to break down some key spots for our NHL DFS picks. There is one team on a back-to-back – Buffalo – and some teams have key lineup opportunities to watch for like Jake Guentzel for Pittsburgh and Jesper Bratt for New Jersey. Stokastic subscribers should be on the lookout in our Discord for updated lineup and injury news, particularly at warmups, as well as using our Oddsshopper tool for NHL betting.
Let’s get to the NHL DFS picks.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Brayden Point (TBL vs. BUF): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $6,800
There have been two important developments for Brayden Point’s fantasy value this season: a healthy Nikita Kucherov on his wing and more ice time. As for the second part, Point is sitting at 21:45 per game on the year, which is over two minutes more than any other season of his career. Though he’s not shooting a lot, it is helping him get to a career-best shots-per-game mark of 2.73.
Having a healthy Kucherov beside him is crucial, though. The team scores about 20% less when Point is on the ice at 5-on-5 without him and they generate considerably less on the power play without Kucherov as well. The all-world winger is off to a great start on the season with 16 points in 11 games and it’s helping Point be an, erm, point-per-game player himself.
The matchup tonight is also a big part of the Lightning appeal. Buffalo is in town, playing their second road game in as many nights, and Tampa Bay draws the most power plays per game of any team (tied with Florida, actually). Not only that, but Point sees a fair amount of depth matchups at 5-on-5 and the team us likely running 11 forwards tonight rather than 12. Point and his line mates require our attention in tournaments.
Tomas Hertl (SJS vs. ANA): DraftKings – $4,400 | FanDuel – $5,500
Among all centers priced $5,000 or less on DK tonight, we have Tomas Hertl topping projections at an even 12.0 DK fantasy points. Among all centers priced $5,500 or less on FD tonight, we have Hertl topping projections, sitting north of 15.0 FD fantasy points. A big reason for that is San Jose is hosting Anaheim tonight, one of the worst defensive teams in the league: bottom-3 in goals, expected goals, and shots against at 5-on-5 and bottom-4 by the same measures on the penalty kill. It isn’t as if the Sharks are an elite offensive squad but sometimes the opponent gives a matchup that is too good to pass on.
A big problem for Hertl is a lack of shooting. He does not have a game with more than two shots in seven straight contests, after averaging three shots per game in the team’s first six games. He doesn’t put up monster shot rates historically, but he’s been bad in this regard this season. Timo Meier’s shot rate has exploded so it seems he’s taking the chances but barring injury, we should bank on a Hertl turnaround, and it’s the perfect spot to do it. Just beware of heavy ownership here tonight as fantasy owners will flock to any team facing the Ducks.
Winger
Travis Konecny (PHI at OTT): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $8,900
It has been a phenomenal start to the year for Flyers winger Travis Konecny as he’s managed four goals and 11 points in 10 games thus far. One big reason for that is the slew of ice time he’s received: over 21 minutes in four straight games and over 20 minutes on average this year. It is giving him a reasonable shot floor to work with, which is always nice for any DFS option.
It is the power play that draws us to this matchup. On the season, Ottawa is giving the fifth-most power plays to the opponent while the Flyers are drawing the 10th-most power plays. Even on the road, there’s a reasonable chance the Flyers get 4-5 PP opportunities tonight, and Konecny skates on the top PP unit. What’s more is Konecny’s shot attempt rate on the power play is 50% higher than last year and double what it was two years ago. He already has five PP points and has a good chance of adding to it tonight.
Philadelphia’s top line is not expected to carry much ownership – low single digits – but full-stacking them isn’t a necessity. They’re fine to use in this manner, but so is a one-off Konecny in tournaments.
Konecny is very expensive on FanDuel so rather than one-off him there, our projections recommend Filip Forsberg (NSH, $7,000) instead.
Bryan Rust (PIT vs. SEA): DraftKings – $5,800 | FanDuel – $6,900
This is a spot to watch for line combinations. Jake Guentzel has missed practices with illness but was skating for Pittsburgh in their optional morning skate. It could shift things around if he returns but it’s likely he just stays with Bryan Rust and Sidney Crosby on the top line.
It might seem counterintuitive, but the Crosby line isn’t used exclusively in shutdown matchups. In fact, they see a fair share of opposing second lines when they’re at home. That is important to note for tonight as the Seattle Kraken – a good team outside of the goaltenders – have a second line that loves to trade chances: 3.3 expected goals for and 3.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That defensive mark is well below average and gives the Pittsburgh top line a good even-strength matchup.
That is also important for Rust, who is seeing a career-best shot rate at 5-on-5 to start this season. If Guentzel is back, it’s likely all three are skating together at 5-on-5 and on the power play. Rust is fine as a one-off if Guentzel is out – Rust would be the primary scorer on the line – but if he is back, just stacking the line in tournaments is the route to take.
Reilly Smith (VGK at MTL): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $5,300
Kirby Dach has been moved to the top line for Montreal recently and that is key to note for this contest. With him off the ice at 5-on-5, the team’s expected goals against rate skyrockets 28%. It goes from well below league average to well above league average. Reilly Smith will avoid Dach for the most part and get to the soft underbelly of this Montreal depth. That is a prime matchup for the Vegas winger.
It has been a fine start for Smith’s season as he’s on pace for 55 points in a full year. The more important note is his shot increase: a career-best mark in shots and shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Combined with a big shooting jump in his secondary PP minutes and he’s averaging over three shots per game for the first time in his career. Facing a Montreal team, and specifically their depth, is a good offensive matchup for the suddenly shot-happy Smith.
Ownership could be a concern in this game as this Vegas line is cheap, as is Smith. But the matchup at even strength is a very good one for the Golden Knights and Smith being reasonably priced across the industry should draw our attention for tournaments.
For anyone needing a much cheaper winger option on FanDuel, Brendan Gallagher (MTL, $3,900) leads our FD winger projections for anyone priced under $4,000.
Defense
Brandon Montour (FLA at LAK): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $6,300
It feels very weird seeing Brandon Montour, a defenseman who often saw prices about half his current cost in seasons gone by, being priced where he is. It is justified, though: he’s averaging over 27 minutes a game in seven games without Aaron Ekblad in the lineup, skating at least 26 minutes in all but one. He is producing with those minutes, too, managing a point per game, 3.7 shots a night, and even throwing in over a block per game for good measure. His team generates the third-most shot attempts per minute at 5-on-5 and he’s skating a lot for them. Again, it feels weird to see this price, but it’s hard to argue with it.
Montour also skates on the top power play unit and though Florida hasn’t been as proficient as last year, their opponent is giving the fourth-most power plays per game to the opponent. His price is keeping ownership in check on both sites – more so on DK – and this could be a high-paced matchup for the high-ice time blue liner. He at least warrants consideration among expensive options in NHL DFS picks tonight.
Timothy Liljegren (TOR vs. BOS): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $3,700
We are always looking for punt options on the blue line and Timothy Liljegren looks to be returning to the fold for Toronto this evening. It was a breakout season a year ago for the 23-year-old as his 82-game pace was over 30 points despite few PP opportunities and skating 16-17 minutes a night.
The important note here is how much he helps the Toronto offense from the blue line. He likes to carry the puck and jump in the rush, and his zone entries leading to scoring chances last year (per tracking data from Corey Sznajder) was among the best in the league. Toronto’s top players generated and scored much more with Liljegren than without him and at his price he doesn’t need much to pay off. Ice time is a concern but that is often the case with ultra-cheap blue liners. He’s at least on the short list for punt defensemen.
Goalie
Cam Talbot (OTT vs. PHI): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $7,300
Among all goaltenders on the evening slate, our projections have Cam Talbot – making his first start of the year – at the top on both sites now that Brian Elliott is starting for Tampa Bay. A big reason for that is Philadelphia’s offensive ineptitude, particularly outside the top line: fewest shot attempts and third-fewest expected goals generated at 5-on-5 in the league. He isn’t projected for a huge save total but does have a low goals-against expectation and could even snag a shutout tonight. Ottawa’s penchant for penalties could throw a wrench in his gameplan tonight but Talbot is reasonably priced at home against a bad Flyers squad. He likely ends up one of the higher-owned goalies in NHL DFS picks tonight.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NJD1: Bratt-Hischier-Tatar
A note here is that Jesper Bratt was moved to Nico Hischier’s line partway through the team’s last game, a comeback win against Edmonton. We are assuming they stay together but with no morning skate, we might not find out for sure until warmups after much of the slate has locked. It is risky but it could be worth it.
Over the last two seasons, with Hischier and Bratt on the ice at 5-on-5, the Devils generate 3.3 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes. They are dynamic together offensively and are really good at limiting the opposition, which helps get them back to the offensive zone even more. They should also see time against the Nazem Kadri-Jonathan Huberdeau duo which has struggled when skating together this year in both zones. This Devils line is expected to draw next-to-no ownership, making them a nice leverage play, particularly for DFSers playing a lot of lineups tonight.
LAK1: Kempe-Kopitar-Vilardi
The addition of the breakout star of the season thus far in Gabriel Vilardi has been a huge boon to Los Angeles’s top line. It is just 55 minutes together but 4.3 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and 66% of the expected goal share are monster numbers in any sample. Vilardi has been arguably the Kings’ best player this year and he’s helped that top line turn around their play.
Los Angeles is another team, like Pittsburgh, that is starting to use their top line against the depth of the opponent, tonight being Florida’s second line. That second line has been average-at-best defensively this year, even if they do generate good scoring chances the other way. It is better than getting Florida’s top line and is one reason why LAK1 is recommended here.
There are two other reasons. First, the Kings are drawing the third-most power plays per game in 2022-23 and this trio all skate together on the top PP unit. Secondly, our Top Stacks tool has them coming in with half the ownership as their top-2 stack potential. It is another good leverage spot and with reasonable prices on both sites, they allow another high-end stack to be used with them.
Be sure to check back daily for more NHL DFS picks.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
