It is a huge 12-game slate tonight in the NHL and that gives us lots of options for our DFS picks. There is some news to watch for like Aleksander Barkov potentially returning for Florida, so Stokastic members should check in our subscriber-only Discord for updated lineup/injury information throughout the day.
Let’s get to the picks.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Connor McDavid (EDM vs. MTL): DraftKings – $9,200 | FanDuel – $10,400
There are injuries plaguing the Edmonton Oilers forward group right now and it’s forcing their top stars to play heavy minutes of late. Connor McDavid, for instance, has skated at least 21 minutes in nine straight contests, averaging just shy of 25 minutes a night over his last five games.  He doesn’t shoot the puck at an elite per-minute basis but that he’s playing so much means he’s averaging over four shots per game in that nine-game stretch.
Montreal in town tonight means a matchup against the Nick Suzuki line. While that line was extremely effective in their first outings together, their expected goals against per 60 minutes in their last 10 games sits at 2.7, with their actual goals against over 5.0. The defensive metrics continue to worsen, which makes sense for a young line on a rebuilding team, but it makes for a great matchup on McDavid’s side. It is one of the reasons why he’s the highest projected player on the slate (and by a lot).
Since the Oilers stacked the top line, McDavid’s trio is generating nearly 4.2 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, scoring a whopping 6.8. The power play is also scoring nearly 10 goals per 60 minutes. There are a lot of elite center options on the docket and McDavid tops the list.
Evgeni Malkin (PIT vs. STL): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $7,500
It has been a bit of a cold streak for Evgeni Malkin of late as he has just one point, an assist, over his last five games. He is still very involved in the offense, though, as he’s skating 18:46 on average in that span, falling just shy of three shots per game. On the campaign as a whole, per the advanced stats site Evolving Hockey, Malkin has a 95th percentile impact on expected goals for his team, so he’s been elite at driving offense this season at even strength.
A big part of the appeal for Malkin and his second line tonight is the matchup with the opposing second line. Going back to last season, this current St. Louis secondary trio has an expected goals against rate per 60 minutes over 3.0 with a very similar goals against rate. They are very good offensively but trade chances back and forth, which is good for Malkin’s DFS upside this evening.
Pittsburgh’s power play has been awful for a while now, ranking last in the NHL in goals per minute over the last month. On the flip side, the St. Louis penalty kill was last in the league over the same timeframe. It is a good spot for Pittsburgh’s PP to break through and a good even-strength matchup for Malkin specifically.
Winger
Alex DeBrincat (OTT vs. SJS): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $7,800
On a shots-per-game basis, it is Alex DeBrincat’s best season as he’s landed 3.7 per game in 23 contests. His problem has been finishing, as he’s shooting 7.3%, a career low. His three-year average from 2019-22 was 14.4% so he could easily double that mark and it would not look out of place. That he’s still averaging nearly 12 DK points per game – higher than names like Kevin Fiala and Jesper Bratt – and over 14 FD points per game – higher than names like Artemi Panarin and Jake DeBrusk – speaks to the upside here when that shooting percentage regresses positively.
Ottawa is hosting San Jose tonight and DeBrincat’s line usually gets a lot of matchups against opposing second lines. That means squaring off against Logan Couture’s trio and like the Montreal line discussed earlier, their defensive numbers are slipping: 2.9 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last month, allowing 3.3 goals against. Those are bad defensive numbers and give DeBrincat a good matchup at even strength.
In 23 games this year, DeBrincat has a shot bonus on DraftKings in eight of them, or a little over one-third of his matchups. It is why our projection for him is higher than Cole Caufield and Jesper Bratt on DK, despite being cheaper. He should be considered as a one-off option this evening.
Chris Kreider (NYR vs. CHI): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $7,200
After a tough start to the season that saw Chris Kreider score just three goals in his first 10 games – driven by a low conversion rate of 8.8% – he has posted eight goals and 14 points in his last 15 games, shooting 17.4%. That is much closer to what he’s done the last few years and his fantasy upside has shone through in that stretch.
Matching up against Chicago here tonight is the appeal. Over the last five weeks, the only team giving up more expected goals at 5-on-5 than the Blackhawks are the Ducks, and the only team giving up more actual goals at 5-on-5 than the Blackhawks are the Blue Jackets. To compound the issue, the Chicago penalty kill has been in the bottom-10 of the league in that stretch. This is a fantastic spot for the Rangers’ offensive talents at all strengths.
On DraftKings, our projections have Kreider leading all wingers priced under $7,000 and he leads all wingers under $8,000 on FanDuel. Given his correlation at all offensive strengths with center Mika Zibanejad, using them in a duo tonight for tournaments makes sense. Kreider’s reasonable price, particularly on DK, makes him a one-off option as well.
Andrew Mangiapane (CGY vs. WSH): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $4,500
Most every NHL player is subject to streaks, given the nature of the sport, but it can be doubly tough for a winger who gets wildly varied minutes like Andrew Mangiapane. He has played under 14 minutes in games this season as well as cracked the 19-minute mark. Mangiapane’s last five games alone have seen him hit both 15:35 and 19:24. Overall, though, he’s getting good ice-time levels while being very cheap in DFS.
Calgary’s second line, including this winger, likes to trade chances back and forth, posting expected goals for and against per 60 minutes around 3.1 and 3.2 for the season. That they’re generating a lot of offense is what DFS players should focus on. They are also going to go head-to-head often with a Washington duo of Evgeny Kuznetsov and Sonny Milano that is giving up north of 3.2 expected and actual goals against per 60 minutes. It is a good in-game matchup for the Flames flank.
Given his very low price and the lack of power-play correlation, Mangiapane is a very usable one-off option tonight. His projection is among the top five wingers priced under $4,000 on DK and $4,500 or less on FD.
Defense
Aaron Ekblad (FLA at SEA): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $7,000
In his 10 games since returning from injury, Aaron Ekblad has posted three goals, six assists, 3.1 shots per game, and 18 total blocks. Even with Aleksander Barkov missing from the lineup – and check for news on him and a possible return – Ekblad has managed 12.4 DK points per game, only having one bad outing in the four Barkov-less contests. His ability to put up peripherals – both shots and blocks – makes him a viable option night in and night out until his price rises further.
Seattle’s penalty kill has been declining of late, ranking in the bottom-10 of the league over the last month. Their goaltending remains a constant issue and that is what brings Ekblad and the Panthers into play for us this evening. Our projections have Ekblad among the top-5 defensemen on both sites tonight so he’s fine to use in any manner both on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Evan Bouchard (EDM vs. MTL): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $5,700
If Mangiapane’s ice time varies a lot, Evan Bouchard is the poster boy. In his 24 games, Bouchard has finished with under 16 minutes on six occasions and over 21 minutes on five occasions. He has still had great DFS performances in games without a lot of TOI which speaks to his propensity for shooting and the team’s scoring upside.
Montreal is in town tonight and this is a team whose defensive numbers are on the downswing as a group. Over the last month, the team is bottom-5 in the league in expected goals against at 5-on-5, giving up more goals than any team but Chicago, and is allowing the third-most shots on the penalty kill. Bouchard took over the top PP role in his last game and it’s a wonderful spot for Edmonton’s power play. The blue liner is one of our top-10 values at his position for players priced under $4,000 on DK.
On FanDuel, he is a lot more expensive but still fine to use. For DFS players looking towards a cheaper option, consider Brett Pesce (CAR, $3,900), who is our top value for rearguards on FD priced under $4,500.
Goalie
Alexandar Georgiev (COL at BOS): DraftKings – $7,400 | FanDuel – $7,200
Among all goalies tonight projected for at least 30 saves, our projections have Alexandar Georgiev tied for the lowest expected goals against. He has been outstanding this season for Colorado, ranking in the top-5 of all regular goalies in high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5 and managing a .922 save percentage overall.
Colorado is really leaning on its top line for scoring, given the injuries the team has, but if they want to win this game, they’ll need a very good performance from Georgiev. He is one of the cheap options that DFS players can target if the desire to pay up for higher-priced options like Spencer Martin or Vitek Vanecek is not palatable.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
CAR1: Jarvis-Aho-Necas
This particular Carolina trio has not played a lot together this year, but Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho have played often together over the last couple seasons. In their time together, without Andrei Svechnikov, the Aho/Jarvis duo generates 3.5 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes. Martin Necas, meanwhile, is having a breakout season with 26 points in 24 games, so this is a very potent offensive line.
Tonight, Carolina’s top line will see a lot of the Anze Kopitar matchup in Los Angeles, and they have not been stout defensively: 3.2 expected goals against and 3.9 actual goals against per 60 minutes. Carolina is also good at drawing power plays, which can be bad news for a Kings team whose goaltending has been bad-to-awful all season long. Their ownership is in check, per our Top Stacks tool, so Carolina’s premier trio is a tournament target for DFS players.
NYR1: Kreider-Zibanejad-Vesey
As discussed in the section on Kreider, this is a fantastic matchup for the Rangers’ top line. That is reflected in our Top Stacks tool, as they’re tied for 10th in top-2 stack percentage, in line with teams like Vegas and Toronto. They are also not carrying much ownership, either, staying in the mid-single digits range on both sites.
In a limited sample of just 100 minutes, this New York triumvirate is generating 4.2 expected goals and 4.5 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which are huge offensive numbers. Jimmy Vesey is even shooting at a reasonable clip, so he can be left in the stacks.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
