Wednesday night is a short, four-game slate with no shortage of talent to pick from. Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid are set to lace up on an NHL DFS slate that should have a good amount of scoring. As always, Stokastic subscribers are encouraged to check the members-only Discord for lineup/injury news, especially when warmups start.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
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Connor McDavid (EDM at ANA): DraftKings – $9,300 | FanDuel – $10,600
Ownership will be extremely elevated for McDavid, but it’s tough to get away from him here. In what seems to be a recurring theme, McDavid is leading the league in points with 77. His closest competition is his teammate Leon Draisaitl, who he leads by 15 points. McDavid is hands down the best center in the league and gets a dream matchup against the Ducks tonight.
Anaheim has been brutal defensive metrics-wise. Over the last 10 games, the Ducks rank dead last in team Corsi percentage, expected goals against, scoring chances against and shots against. They also rank last in expected goals against on the penalty kill while giving up the second-most shots against. If minimizing exposure to chalk, going to a power play stack is a great way to get some separation from the field.
Nicklas Backstrom (WSH at PHI): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $3,000
Backstrom returned to the Capitals lineup Saturday for the first time since having hip resurfacing surgery. Some rust was expected, as he hasn’t played at full game speed since May 13 of 2022.
Backstrom makes for an interesting salary saver on a night that requires some cap. He slotted in on the top line alongside Alex Ovechkin while also pivoting the top power play against the Blue Jackets, logging 14 minutes of ice time to go along with just one shot on goal. The Capitals switched the lines up at morning skate on Tuesday, putting Backstrom on the second line alongside T.J. Oshie and Lars Eller, so pay attention to lines at morning skate before Wednesday’s game.
Backstrom has been a very good facilitator over the years, and he will likely get his legs back under himself in a short amount of time. Of course, that also means his NHL DFS salary will likely rise. Getting top power play exposure with Ovechkin is the main draw here to save some cap space. Philadelphia has been a good penalty killing team over the last 10 games, but they are still middle of the pack as a team. The Flyers are in the bottom 10 of all the defensive metrics at even strength. With the Capitals getting Backstrom and Tom Wilson back, it’s only going to help their firepower.
Winger
William Nylander (TOR vs. NSH): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $8,800
Nylander has been a shot volume monster playing alongside Auston Mathews on the Leafs top line. He is averaging over four shots a game over the last 10 while chipping in 12 points. The Leafs top line carries possession, with a 51% Corsi while creating 37 shots per 60 and just under four expected goals. They will likely match up with the Filip Forsberg line most of the night, which isn’t the worst matchup.
Nashville comes into Wednesday night riding a four-game win streak and an offense that seems to be clicking. Its defense has also struggled over the last 10 games. The Predators rank 22nd in Corsi, 30th in expected goals against and 31st in shots against. They just gave up 67 shots to Carolina and 38 to Ottawa. If the Leafs top line gets an ample number of chances, they are going to cash in — especially with full correlation on the extra-man advantage.
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Kevin Fiala (LA vs. SJ): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $7,600
When the Kings get last change at home, Fiala benefits greatly. He gets to go against weaker depth lines, and his splits have been eye-opening. At home, he’s averaging just under four shots on goal per game (82). On the road, he’s averaging 2.4 shots on goal per game (53). That’s a 64% increase at home. Fiala also gets time on the top power play, offering some exposure to the top six. Because of that, it makes him a good one-off player in all formats tonight.
Outside of its top six, San Jose has lacked any real depth this year. The Sharks goaltending has been bad as well, giving up 3.7 goals against per game. Lastly, Fiala is a nightly contender for the shot-on-goal bonus. He’s hit the bonus in two of his last three games.
Defensemen
Darnell Nurse (EDM at ANA): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $6,200
On top of averaging 4.5 shots and blocks per game, Nurse has been logging a ton of ice time. Over the last 10 games, he has averaged over 24 minutes a night. Jay Woodcroft continues to mix the power play quarterback up, but Nurse has been a mainstay on the second unit. That doesn’t detract from playing him, as he sees a ton of regular strength time with McDavid as well. Nurse is averaging just under double-digit fantast points over the last 10, and with the phenomenal matchup tonight, he makes a strong play. The Ducks give up chances in every facet of the game, and Nurse should get plenty of chances to chip in on the point department.
Drew Doughty (LA vs. SJ): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,900
Many will go to the Oilers in the mid-range, but Doughty is worth a look. He continues to log massive minutes for the Kings (26.2 minutes per game) while quarterbacking the top power play. His ceiling isn’t as high as it once was, but he can still contribute. Of the 24 points he has tallied this year, 12 of them have come on the power play. San Jose’s goaltending has been brutal. If the kings can get on them early at home, they could have a high-scoring night.
Goalie
Juuse Saros (NSH at TOR): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $8,600
Per the Stokastic’s GoalieStats section, Juuse Saros is second in projected saves for this slate, landing just over 29 stops. He makes a more interesting tournament play on DraftKings, where he is the sixth-priced keeper. Saros ranks third in the league in goals saved above expectancy this year. Nashville has given up a ton of shots on goal through the first half, and Saros should see plenty rubber tonight. The question remains, though, how many will get past him?
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EDM PP: McDavid – Draisaitl – Hyman – Barrie – Nugent-Hopkins
Depending on build and available salary cap, there are several ways to get separation from the ownership. The Oilers second line figures to carry a ton of ownership according to the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool. Even building a line with McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto and Nurse could provide good separation because of the uniqueness of the build. Edmonton’s power play has been one of the most lethal in the game. The Ducks are spending the third-most time shorthanded, they have the third-worst penalty kill in the league. Even on the road, the matchup is ripe for picking.
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