NHL DFS players have an 11-game slate to analyze this evening, and some moving parts among a couple of the top options stand out. The three of Ottawa, Colorado and Vancouver played last night, which could make lineup information for key players like Cale Makar or Mikko Rantanen difficult to come by before lock. Stokastic subscribers should check the members-only Discord for lineup/injury news that trickles in throughout the day. Let’s get to today’s best NHL DFS picks, including John Tavares.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
John Tavares (TOR at MTL): DraftKings – $6,700 | FanDuel – $8,300
With all the top centers available tonight, it doesn’t look like John Tavares will draw much ownership. The early Stokastic ownership run has Toronto’s second-line center at 7.4% on DraftKings, outside the top half-dozen pivots, and roughly half that on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Tavares is the only center in the top 10 by fantasy points projection priced under $7,200. That combination of high projection and low price gives him solid value for this slate.
Toronto will face a Canadiens team that has given them fits over the last couple of years despite otherwise struggling — such is the nature of rivalries. However, Montreal announced winger Cole Caufield is out for the year and six other regular forwards will sit. Things are looking bleak for a team that had already surrendered the second-most expected goals against in the 5-on-5 over the last six weeks.
The Canadiens also sport a poor penalty kill, and that’s where Tavares can really succeed. He ranks second on his team in points per minute — and first in shots per minute — with the man advantage. He can be used by himself or in some sort of Toronto power play stack.
Logan Couture (SJS at CBJ): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $6,800
It hasn’t been a good year for San Jose, but Logan Couture produced well and is on pace for 29 goals (which would be a five-year high) and 64 points. He has formed a nice duo on the second line with Alexander Barabanov, and the team generates 2.7 expected goals and 3.2 actual goals with them on the ice in the 5-on-5 (without Timo Meier). Those aren’t elite offensive numbers, but they’re good, and Couture doesn’t have a top-end salary.
The matchup against Columbus is a big part of Couture’s appeal. The Blue Jackets have the third-most expected goals and seventh-most actual goals against per minute at 5-on-5 over the last six weeks, numbers consistent with their entire season. They have also spent the ninth-most time short-handed over that span as undisciplined play has ticked up. Those factors give Couture reasonable matchups at all strengths.
Using Couture tonight is another matter. The Top Stacks tool has his line coming in over-owned, which is a concern for a road team. He can be used in a duo with Barabanov, though, given the relatively low cost and ability to stack more expensive options elsewhere.
Winger
Jordan Kyrou (STL vs. CHI): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $6,700
Kyrou started the year off poorly. He racked up only three goals and four points through the team’s first 10 games. He has been much more himself since that point, though, with 18 goals and 39 points in 33 games, averaging 3.5 shots per contest. One concern is that he has skated 18:20 a game without Ryan O’Reilly or Vladimir Tarasenko in the lineup, virtually the same TOI as before those injuries (18:09). That the minutes from their missing stars is going to depth options and not the elite players is worrisome, but there are remedies for that.
One remedy is the matchup against Chicago. The Blackhawks have been among the worst teams in the league all season. The last six weeks have been no exception: they have allowed the fifth-most expected goals against and the third-most actual goals against per minute in the 5-on-5 and bottom-seven numbers on the penalty kill. Those factors give Kyrou and his linemates a terrific matchup at all strengths, something that is reflected in their high ownership.
Given his propensity for shooting and his center’s lack thereof, Jordan Kyrou is perfectly acceptable as a one-off option in any format. He can be used with his linemates, but NHL DFS players should mind the high ownership projections for them on both sites.
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J.T. Miller (VAN vs. EDM): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $7,500
Things are not going well in Vancouver. The Canucks have gone 2-9 in their last 11 games and the Sword of Damocles hangs over the head of their coach this weekend. J.T. Miller has been on a line with Conor Garland and Bo Horvat of late, and the trio has generated 2.9 expected goals per 60 minutes this year, controlling nearly 55% of the expected goal share. Those are legitimately good numbers.
The other reason for Miller’s appeal is the power-play matchup. Edmonton is the fourth-most penalized team on the season and gives up more power plays than any team except Florida, Arizona and Montreal. They also are poor on the penalty kill, ranking 24th by percentage and giving up the ninth-most shots per minute over their last 20 games. Tonight marks a good opportunity for Vancouver to produce on the man advantage, which helps Miller’s cause immensely.
The Canucks have a home matchup against the Edmonton Oilers and all their defensive issues. The matchup makes Miller the second-highest projected winger on DraftKings tonight for all flanks priced under $6,000. It gives him enough value to make him — or his line — sharp plays for tournaments. Miller is listed as a center on FanDuel, so for a similarly priced winger, look to Joe Pavelski (DAL, $7,300) who is in a fantastic matchup against Arizona.
Teuvo Teravainen (CAR at NYI): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $4,900
The injury to Max Pacioretty is incredibly unfortunate for him and the team. Before his return, Teuvo Teravainen had been spending time on a line with Sebastian Aho, a markedly better role than the one he plays with Pacioretty in the lineup.
Playing with the team’s top pivot makes a big difference for Teravainen’s fantasy upside. Over the last three seasons, Teravainen has produced 1.9 points per 60 minutes in the 5-on-5 with Aho as his center and 1.1 points/60 without him. NHL DFS players can score some additional upside if he returns to Aho’s power play unit (which he has often done in games Pacioretty misses).
Facing New York goalie Ilya Sorokin is always a tough task. The netminder leads in Evolving Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected metric by a significant margin, indicating he’s been the best goalie in the league this season. But despite that metric, 20% of Sorokin’s starts have seen him allow at least four goals.
New (and better) linemates with additional ice time have pushed Teravainen’s projection to sixth among DraftKings wingers priced under $4,000, and fourth on FanDuel for flanks with a price tag under $5,000. He is a salary-saving one-off option.
Defense
Vince Dunn (SEA vs. COL): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $6,200
Vince Dunn‘s strong season has gotten a bit lost among all the other great Seattle performances. Tonight makes Game 46 for him, and he is one point away from a career-high of 35, which he has achieved twice in his career — but the feat took him 70-plus games each time. Dunn is on pace for 62 points this season, and that would have been sixth among all defensemen a year ago. Injuries on the Seattle blue line have pushed his ice time over 25 minutes per contest in his last five outings.
Colorado is in town tonight, and they’ll play their second game in as many nights. They own a penalty kill that ranks 22nd in shots allowed and 24th in goals allowed per minute over the last six weeks. If Justin Schultz misses this game (he missed the last one), the Kraken must trust Dunn at all strengths, especially in the power play. He has the third-highest projection for DK rearguards priced lower than $5,000, making him a solid mid-priced option.
Dunn is much more expensive on FanDuel, so DFS players looking for a cheaper option there should consider Morgan Rielly (TOR, $5,900) in his matchup against Montreal.
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Drew Doughty (LAK at NSH): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $6,100
The Los Angeles Kings have often split the two power-play units, leading to Drew Doughty only earning 56% of the available power-play time through his first 36 games. Things have changed recently, though. Doughty has skated for 65% of the available power play time over the team’s last five games, a function of the team losing key forwards to injury.
Doughty’s increased usage in the power play makes him a sharp target against Nashville. The Predators are the sixth-most penalized team this year and have spent the third-most time shorthanded over the last six weeks. Like New York, Nashville has an elite goalie in Juuse Saros, which can make goals tough to come by, but everything else lines up as a solid matchup for Doughty.
The power play matchup Doughty’s general levels of ice time make him the highest projected defenseman on DraftKings tonight for those under $5,000, which gives him tremendous value. That value is less pronounced on FanDuel, so someone like Rielly or Moritz Seider (DET, $5,800) can be used instead.
Goalie
Juuse Saros (NSH vs. LAK): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $8,000
On the other side of that Los Angeles game is a tepid Nashville team. Over their last 20 games, the Predators have given up the fourth-most shots per minute (only Anaheim, Columbus, and Montreal have allowed more). They also rank 19th in the metric on the penalty kill.
Only the Anaheim Ducks have given up more shots per minute than Nashville over the last 20. But the Predators have given up the ninth-fewest goals per minute thanks to elite goaltending from Saros and Kevin Lankinen. Saros has an elite .929 save percentage in his last 24 starts, good for 32.5 saves per game. All this pushes the Finnish netminder to the top of Stokastic’s goalie fantasy point projections, as he ranks second on DraftKings and fourth on FanDuel. He is one of the top values on the slate on both sites.
As usual, Ilya Samsonov (TOR, $6,500) is the option to side with on FanDuel until that site starts pricing him as a respectable goalie and not an AHL backup.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
COL1: MacKinnon-Rantanen-Rodrigues
This stack is a bit precarious because Colorado played last night and will play a late game tonight in Seattle. That means we may not hear updates from their coaching staff until after the slate starts. That is an issue because Rantanen got moved up to the top line with Nathan MacKinnon last night and spent the third period on his wing.
If the Avs keep Rantanen at the wing, that would boost the value of this stack. Colorado generates 25% more expected goals and 21% more goals in the 5-on-5 this season when he slots in beside MacKinnon. Adding Evan Rodrigues, who ranks third on the team in shot rate in the 5-on-5 since returning from injury, makes this stack even more dangerous.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has the Colorado top line as one of the best leverage spots on the night, meaning much higher top-two stack probability than ownership. Using Rantanen is a gamble in case they revert lines but at worst, it just turns this into a power play stack, and Seattle has the second-worst penalty kill percentage in the league this season.
CBJ1: Gaudreau-Jenner-Marchenko
Columbus has moved rookie Kirill Marchenko to the top line, which makes this an intriguing trio. All three are expected to skate on the top power-play unit and Marchenko is considerably cheaper than Patrik Laine.
The move drops the projection for the top line, but that is offset by the decreased cost. Even with Marchenko slated for top-line minutes, this Blue Jackets threesome is 10th by Top Stacks’ top-two stack probability on DraftKings, and is the cheapest line in the top 15. Something similar can be said for FanDuel, where CBJ1 is ninth by top-two stack percentage but has the cheapest price of the top 12 lines. Perfect correlation, a reasonable price and single-digit ownership projections bring this line into play as a top NHL DFS pick.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick