We have a monster 12-game slate for our NHL DFS picks tonight and that means we need to whittle down our player pool. There may be a few very high ownership spots, including Mika Zibanejad and Brad Marchand, that we will discuss at least in passing but that also means some good teams will be undervalued. As always, Stokastic subscribers should check our Discord, particularly at warmups, for updated lineup and injury news.
Let’s hop to it.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Mika Zibanejad (NYR vs. PHI): DraftKings – $8,500 | FanDuel – $10,000
It feels like we have Rangers skaters in this column a couple times a week but until something drastic changes, they’re viable almost every slate. The team is very top-heavy in their scoring as their top-6 forwards, plus Adam Fox on the blue line, have scored 24 of the team’s 31 goals. It is one reason why Mika Zibanejad has 6 goals and 12 points in 10 games despite the team not even being in the top-half of the league in goals per minute. It is also why he’s a top-5 center by our projections tonight on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Mika Zibanejad’s line has been very good at 5-on-5 this year, if a bit unlucky. His trio is generating nearly 4.3 expected goals per 60 minutes, which is a massive offensive total. The problem is they’re actually scoring fewer than 1.8 per 60 minutes because the line is shooting 4.2%. Mika Zibanejad and winger Chris Kreider are typically in double-digits for shooting percentage so this will turn itself around, it’s just a matter of when. Zibanejad himself is averaging over five shots per game, so when it does turn, he could really fill the net.
Facing the Philadelphia top line is a good matchup for this Rangers center and his line mates. They are all in strong consideration for tournaments tonight.
Brock Nelson (NYI at CHI): DraftKings – $4,800 | FanDuel – $6,100
It has been a tale of two weird stats for Brock Nelson thus far in 2022-23: his shot rate at 5-on-5 has declined from last season but he has a couple goals at that strength, however his shot rate on the power play has increased but has yet to score with the man advantage. He typically scores on roughly 20% of his power-play shots, so he should have a couple PP goals by now. Once his luck turns around, his production will only climb from here, and he’s already on pace for over 25 goals.
Going into Chicago is a good matchup for Nelson, specifically, tonight. The Blackhawks are giving up 4.3 power plays to the opponent so far this season, fourth-most in the league. The Islanders’ center is skating well over three minutes per game with the man advantage with that high shot rate. He should get scoring opportunities on the PP tonight and a reasonable price makes it worthwhile. Among centers priced $5,000 or less on DK tonight, he’s second by our projections (fourth on FanDuel among centers under $6,500).
The way the Islanders spread out their ice time means full-line stacking isn’t always necessary for tournaments. Nelson can be used as a one-off because of his PP role tonight, though anyone wanting to stack his line is fine to do so.
Winger
Evander Kane (EDM vs. NSH): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $7,900
It has been a slow start for Evander Kane, even as he’s been reasonably productive with two goals and eight points in nine games. He is managing 3.8 shots per game, which would be a five-year high for him. His problem is similar to Nelson’s in that a low shooting percentage – 5.9% so far – has kept his goal totals very meagre. Doubling that number would still be lower than his three-year average heading into this season and would bring him over a 35-goal pace. He is not very far off from being a very high-end fantasy producer and some better shooting luck will get him there.
While Evander Kane isn’t officially listed on the team’s top PP unit, he skated there on 4 of 13 power play opportunities the team had on their recent road trip. He gets some time with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, which is important for a team that is second in the league in power-play goals per 60 minutes. The lack of consistent top PP role keeps his projections muted compared to names like Jason Robertson or Chris Kreider, but it’ll also keep his ownership in check.
Nashville has been mediocre-at-best defensively at 5-on-5 this season and are tied for 10th in the league in PP opportunities to the opponent. Kane’s shot volume gives him a good floor to work with, as does skating 20 minutes a night. He is a perfect accessory to any Edmonton tournament stack tonight.
Timo Meier (SJS vs. ANA): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $6,500
It has been a surreal start to the year for Timo Meier. He had 35 goals in 2021-22, his second 30-goal season in four years. He is averaging 4.8 shots per game on the season as his 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 shot attempt rates are both currently career-best marks. The problem is that he has one goal on 53 total shots, shooting a measly 1.9%. Though he’s not a high-percentage shooter, averaging just over 10% from 2019-2022, it is clear he’s going through a very unlucky spell right now. He would be nearly a point-per-game player if he was shooting 10%, being on pace for nearly 40 goals.
The lack of goals has dropped his prices a fair amount and he is now far too cheap. Along with the next guy on our list, Meier leads winger projections by value on both sites tonight, and it’s not particularly close.
Anaheim visiting San Jose tonight gives the Sharks a very good home matchup. The Ducks are 31st by expected goals against, and 26th by actual goals against, at 5-on-5. The penalty kill is equally bad, ranking with all metrics ranking in the bottom-10 of the league.
At his price, Meier is fine as a one-off tonight but a cheap top line, including Tomas Hertl, brings his line mates into focus for us as a GPP line stack as well.
Sam Reinhart (FLA at ARI): DraftKings – $4,300 | FanDuel – $5,700
On the topic of unlucky players: Sam Reinhart. The former Sabre averaged 17.4% shooting in the three seasons from 2019-22 but is sitting at 0% in 2022-23. His 21:19 TOI and three shots per game are both career-highs yet he has zero goals and two assists in nine games. He is averaging career-best shot attempt rates at both 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 but has yet to score. Like Kane, Nelson, and Meier, there should be significant positive regression coming his way.
A big problem for Reinhart is a lack of line mate scoring (along with his own). The team is shooting just 4.6% at 5-on-5 with him on the ice, by far a career-low, even including those awful Sabres teams from 5-6 years ago. Once he and his line mates start scoring more regularly, Reinhart’s production will only skyrocket. He won’t get much cheaper than he is right now.
The matchup is the appeal, obviously. Arizona is giving the sixth-most power plays to the opponent this season and is near-or-at the bottom of the league in most 5-on-5 defensive metrics. It is a good spot for Reinhart to start producing offensively and his price is very appealing. He can be used in either a 5-on-5 or power-play stack tonight.
Defense
Miro Heiskanen (DAL vs. LAK): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,800
This depends on Miro Heiskanen returning to the lineup, obviously, so checking for his status is necessary today. However, his price on DraftKings has dropped considerably from earlier in the season when he was priced over $6,000. He doesn’t put up elite peripherals, as his shot attempt rate is a career-best right now but is still not inside the 85th percentile of regular defensemen this season. However, he does run the top Dallas PP unit, and that’s important tonight. The Stars face a Kings team playing their second road game in as many nights and are third in the league in power-play opportunities given to the opponent. It is a good matchup for Heiskanen and the Dallas PP forwards.
Should Heiskanen remain out of the lineup, the pivot is his current PP1 replacement in the very cheap Ryan Suter.
Calen Addison (MIN vs. MTL): DraftKings – $4,000 | FanDuel – $4,800
The issue with Calen Addison in DFS is a lack of peripherals. He is averaging just one shot and one block per game, which isn’t very much, even at a somewhat reasonable price. He is actually shooting less on the power play than at even strength, which speaks to how often he defers a shot for a pass.
That may not be a bad thing tonight, however. Montreal is in town and the Canadiens are 29th by expected goals against on the penalty kill, and 31st by shots allowed. On the flipside, the Wild top PP unit is managing 14 goals per 60 minutes as their PP ranks among the best in the league. Addison runs that top unit and that brings him into play for us.
For cash games, Addison is a pass because of those lack of peripherals. In tournaments as part of a Minnesota, stack, though, he requires our attention along with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello.
Goalie
Igor Shesterkin (NYR vs. PHI): DraftKings – $8,300 | FanDuel – $8,000
Though not a great start to the year for last year’s Vezina Trophy winner, Igor Shesterkin’s .913 save percentage is still much higher than the league average of .905. His 5-on-5 high-danger save percentage of .870 is right in line with his career mark of .869, so the problem has largely come on the penalty kill. Those PK save metrics are very unreliable in small samples so we should believe in his track record over a handful of games at the start of the season.
On this slate, Shesterkin leads our projections by both total points and overall value on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is expensive but in a good home matchup and stands a good chance of shutting out the opponent. He needs to be on the short-list of goalies for any format tonight.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
BOSPP: Marchand-Bergeron-DeBrusk
There are a bevy of high-end options in good matchups on this 12-gamer like Edmonton at home to Nashville, the Rangers at home to the Flyers, Minnesota at home to Montreal, and Florida in Arizona. Those should eat a lot of ownership and keep it away from the Boston top line, which doubles as a PP stack.
The return of Brad Marchand can’t be overstated for the Boston power play. Depending on the seasons we use for a frame of reference, the top PP unit scores 30-55% less often when Patrice Bergeron doesn’t have his usual winger beside him. That is important for tonight as Pittsburgh has one of the worst penalty kills in the league, ranking 31st by expected goals against and 28th by actual goals against. Adding David Pastrnak instead of Jake DeBrusk is acceptable but then the stack is getting very expensive, or more expensive than it already is.
SJ1: Meier-Hertl-Svechnikov
As mentioned in the Meier section, it has been a very tough start for him, but this is a great matchup against Anaheim. Skating with Tomas Hertl this year, they are generating 2.8 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 but have scored at less than half that rate. Their problems converting shots into goals has depressed their price and made them a great complementary stack tonight.
We should see a lot of ownership here for a 12-game slate. They are cheap, two out of three are on the top PP unit (Evgeny Svechnikov excepted), and it’s a poor defensive team visiting. All the same, regression comes for us all and they need to at least be considered as a secondary stack. Using Erik Karlsson on the blue line instead of Svechnikov for additional PP exposure is perfectly fine.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
