NHL DFS Picks Today: Nazem Kadri, William Nylander, and a New York Rangers Stack

The NHL has returned from its holiday break, and it has given NHL DFS players an 11-game slate to work with, featuring top stars like Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, and Roman Josi. That is a heavy slate, but it gives us a lot of players and lines from which to make our picks. With teams just getting back together, it will be a news-heavy day, so Stokastic subscribers are strongly encouraged to check in the subscriber-only Discord for updated lineup and injury information. Let’s dive into the NHL DFS picks.

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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays | Dec. 27

Center

Nazem Kadri (CGY vs. EDM): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $7,200

There has been a drop in production for Nazem Kadri compared to his last season in Colorado, but it has all come from the assists. His goals per game (0.37) is nearly in line with that monster season a year ago (0.39) while his shots per game are the third highest of his career. Calgary’s second-line center is also on pace to set a career-high in power-play goals, sitting with six in 35 games, with his previous best being 12 in 80 games back in Toronto.

It is that power-play production that we are focusing on here. Edmonton is giving the sixth-most power plays to the opponent in the NHL this season and are in the bottom-10 of the league in shots and goals against per minute while down a man since Thanksgiving. The Oilers’ penalty kill has struggled all season long and that is where Kadri can do damage tonight.

Stokastic projections have the 32-year-old seventh on DraftKings tonight and eighth over on FanDuel where he’s a tremendous value for his price. He skates with Jonathan Huberdeau at all offensive strengths, so using them in a duo for tournaments is perfectly fine on this slate, though Kadri can be used as a one-off given his goal-scoring and shot-taking potential.

Evan Rodrigues (COL at ARI): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $6,400

This recommendation will depend a lot on the injury news for Valeri Nichushkin (early indications are he will miss this game). He left Colorado’s last game before the holiday break with a lower-body injury. Nichushkin had ankle surgery back in November so it may be related to that, or it may not. Regardless, with the winger missing from the lineup, it was Evan Rodrigues that jumped to Colorado’s top power-play unit. He skated over 23 minutes that night, his highest mark in the five games since returning from his own injury.

Top power-play slotting for Rodrigues is important here with Arizona being the opponent. The Coyotes give up by far the most power plays per game to the opponent at 4.1, and the penalty kill is giving up the third-most shots and goals per minute since Thanksgiving. Colorado’s power play has struggled without Nathan MacKinnon, but it is also shooting just over 6%. There should be positive regression to come, and Rodrigues is a shot-happy player as it is, taking 2.9 per game on the campaign.

The loss of Nichushkin would hurt Rodrigues’ 5-on-5 performance but it would help his power-play role significantly. At a reasonable price, he can be used as a one-off to avoid the high-priced Avalanche players. Stokastic has Rodrigues projected for 7.3% ownership this evening.

 

Winger

William Nylander (TOR at STL): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $9,100

It has been 19 games since William Nylander was moved up alongside Auston Matthews at 5-on-5. In that span, he has 14 goals and 25 points, averaging 3.9 shots per game. His nine games in December have seen him fall just shy of five shots per game, so there is considerable offense being generated now that the line has grown some chemistry together.

St. Louis has a penalty kill that has struggled all season long. They are giving up the seventh-most shots and sixth-most goals per minute in the league, ranking alongside the bad Edmonton penalty kill mentioned earlier this article. Toronto has moved to a five-forward power play very recently so there’s not much of a sample to work with, but teams have not had trouble against the St. Louis penalty kill, giving the Leafs a good matchup, even if the Blues don’t take many penalties.

Nylander has been priced up considerably on FanDuel so his value there is fair, but he’s still grading out fine with a top-10 winger projection, and his DraftKings value is even better. He is perfectly correlated with his line mates so a three-man stack in tournaments makes a lot of sense for DFS players. However, given this flank’s shooting penchant, he can be considered as a one-off.

Mark Stone (VGK at LAK): DraftKings – $5,200 | FanDuel – $7,100

Though the Vegas top line has been better offensively with Jack Eichel there, Mark Stone’s line has been productive even without the center: 2.9 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in over 200 minutes without the all-world pivot. That isn’t great offensive production, but it’s good, and it’s not as if Stone is being priced anywhere near the elite wingers tonight.

If there has been an Achilles’ heel for the Los Angeles Kings this year, it’s goaltending. They have the second-worst save percentage in the league at .883, with the league average being .905. Pheonix Copley has had a few good games in net for the Kings but relying on a 30-year-old goalie with 38 career NHL appearances should offer insight to just how desperate the Kings are for anything approaching average goaltending. Vegas does not need to generate a lot of offense to score on a team giving up more goals per minute than the Philadelphia Flyers or Ottawa Senators.

Among all wingers priced over $5,000 on DraftKings tonight, Stone has a top-5 value when comparing projection to cost. He is more expensive on FanDuel, relatively speaking, but still grades out as a fine value. He can be used by himself or in conjunction with his line mates, depending on the health of Jonathan Marchessault.

For a cheaper flank option on FanDuel, consider Nick Schmaltz (ARI, $5,500). He was moved back to the top PP unit and is fifth in our FD projections for all wingers priced under $7,000 but is priced outside the top-20 wingers.

Seth Jarvis (CAR vs. CHI) DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $5,200

The return of Sebastian Aho might be more important for Seth Jarvis than any other Carolina forward. At 5-on-5 over the last two seasons, the team generates 30% more expected goals and 70% more actual goals at 5-on-5 when Jarvis has Aho as his center than anyone else. Jarvis’s on point rate is more than doubled when he gets the team’s top center as his pivot, too.

Not only does Jarvis get his center back, but he’s in a terrific matchup. On the season, the Chicago Blackhawks rank 29th by both expected goals and actual goals against at 5-on-5. The goals against have gotten worse as the season’s wore on, too, as they rank 31st by goals against since Thanksgiving. There is no shutdown line that should concern the Hurricanes as they get a very soft game coming out of the holiday break.

The young winger doesn’t get top power-play time, which would be ideal, but he’s also carrying a very low price tag, especially on DraftKings. Per the Stokastic projections, among all wingers priced between $3,000 and $5,000 on DK, Jarvis is one of the top point-per-dollar values. For those reasons, he can be used as a salary-saving one-off tonight.

For a cheaper FanDuel option, consider Blake Coleman (CGY, $4,500). He is skating on a good depth line for the Flames and carries a similar value to Jarvis.

Defense

Jakob Chychrun (ARI vs. COL): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $6,400

One of Colorado’s issues this season, whether related to injury or not, is the penalty kill. They are ranked 22nd by goals against per minute when down a man, only a bit better than the Arizona Coyotes themselves, who rank 23rd. Jakob Chychrun was moved back to the team’s top power-play unit with Clayton Keller et al. in the team’s final game before the holiday break, which is nice to see from a DFS perspective.

Chychrun doesn’t need PP production for DFS value as he’s averaged 3.1 shots and 1.5 blocks per game over the last three seasons. This season alone has seen him hit the DraftKings shot bonus in a quarter of his outings. Stokastic projections have him as a top-5 option on DK tonight despite being priced outside the top-5 blue liners, giving him fine value. There is less value on FanDuel because the peripherals don’t matter as much, but he’s still acceptable.

For DFS players on FanDuel looking for better value from an expensive defenseman, consider Brent Burns (CAR, $6,500). He runs the top Carolina power-play unit, and they get a tremendous matchup with Chicago in town.

Neal Pionk (WPG vs. MIN): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $5,300

Winnipeg is going through injuries of their own with Nikolaj Ehlers, Cole Perfetti, and Blake Wheeler missing from the lineup. In their last game before the holiday break, the team moved Neal Pionk to the top power-play unit alongside normal defenseman Josh Morrissey. There is no sample with this setup, but Pionk is still priced as if he’s not skating there as it is a very recent change to his situation. Minnesota’s penalty kill is good, but not great, ranking ninth on the season by goals against per minute, and they give power plays at an above-average rate.

On FanDuel tonight, Pionk is second in projections for any defenseman priced under $5,500, and his value on DraftKings is just fine for his reasonable cost. He should be considered among all the mid-priced rearguards for the evening.

Goalie

Stuart Skinner (EDM at CGY): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $7,800

Finishing has been a problem for Calgary this season as they rank fourth in the league in shots per minute at 5-on-5 but are tied for 10th in goals per minute. Per our expected save projections, Stuart Skinner ranks fifth, falling just shy of 30 saves. Edmonton’s awful penalty kill can give him problems in DFS but if the Flames don’t do damage with the man advantage, Skinner can produce a very good night in the fantasy realm.

For DFS players looking toward a safer option in goal – though goaltending varies wildly night to night – consider Linus Ullmark (BOS, $8,400 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel). He is priced as an expensive option but has been elite for the Bruins this year, sporting a .936 save percentage, and he ranks in the top-3 on both sites by our goalie point projections.

Top NHL DFS Stacks Today

WPG1: Connor-Dubois-Scheifele

With all of Winnipeg’s injuries, the team has been forced to stack the top line, much like Colorado has had to do for much of the campaign. What this does is concentrate the scoring, meaning if the Jets do have a good offensive night, it is likely because this line is heavily involved in most, or all, of the goals. Stokastic projections have this Winnipeg trio carrying a higher DraftKings projection (37.5) than their opposite top line in this game from Minnesota (33.8), and higher than the top lines from teams like Pittsburgh, Boston, and Los Angeles. The same is true on FanDuel, which is why our Top Stacks tool has this Winnipeg three-man unit as a top-3 line by top-2 stack probability.

The same Top Stacks tool has them at 5% ownership, or thereabouts, on DK and negligible ownership on FD where they are relatively more expensive. Perfect correlation and lots of ice time should bring these Jets forwards into play for tournaments tonight.

NYR1: Panarin-Zibanejad-Kravtsov

The New York Rangers look to be leaving Vitali Kravtsov on the top line (for now). In 65 minutes with winger Artemi Panarin, Kravtsov helps generate 2.8 expected goals and 3.7 goals at 5-on-5 for New York. On both DK and FD, Kravtsov is carrying a minimum or near-minimum price, which makes this forward group inexpensive to stack. They are carrying ownership somewhere between 3-5% on the two sites, so there shouldn’t be excessive usage in tournaments tonight, especially considering the size of the slate. DFS players looking for a mid-priced line that won’t have high ownership rates, this Rangers trio is one to look towards.

*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick

Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

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