The NHL’s four-game Sunday main slate offers a number of tight decisions and could see some relatively balanced usage. Let’s analyze why the Ottawa Senators have the upside to provide serious value against the Los Angeles Kings, and more, with NHL DFS picks.
As always, subscribers should check Stokastic’s Discord, especially at warmups, for line changes and injuries.
Best NHL DFS Picks Today | November 27
Goalie
Senators-Kings: Cam Talbot $7,300 DraftKings | $ 7,200 FanDuel
Even at just $7,300 and $7,200, Ottawa Senators goalie Cam Talbot projects to have below 10% ownership on each of DraftKings and Fanduel, and projects to be a tremendous contrarian angle at those very low salaries. It is very realistic to think that Ottawa could surprise and win at Los Angeles, and Talbot seems to offer a better target at goalie than the vast majority of DFS owners are expecting.
Los Angeles manages the 11th most shots on goal per game in the NHL yet has generated just the 16th best goals per game average. Last season, the Kings followed a similar script and scored at a 22nd-best rate despite averaging a ton of shots on goal.
It is a realistic narrative that Talbot manages a 35-save win while allowing a modest total, and if that were to occur, being one of 9-10% of people owning him at $1,000 or more below most reasonable options would be extremely rewarding.
Talbot has played to a +3.1 goals saved above expected rating and a .918 SV% to this point.
Those are excellent marks, and it’s reasonable to expect an uptick in results is coming moving forward for the Senators, based upon a steady analytical profile and with top defenseman Thomas Chabot back in the lineup.
Senators Stack
Thomas Chabot, Tim Stuetzle, Drake Batherson Stack $17,800 DraftKings; $19,700 FanDuel
Ottawa finally broke through with a big offensive game Friday versus the Anaheim Ducks, which it clearly had been working toward for a number of reasonable outings.
The Senators simply had been unable to finish chances at a league average level this season, and a shooting percentage of just 8.27% in November is likely hiding that Ottawa is skating a ton of offensive talent.
The Senators hold the fourth highest xGF/60 in the NHL this month at 3.67, and, as of now, this offense is clearly being underrated by fantasy players.
Each of these Senators projects to have ownership well below 10%, which doesn’t entirely make sense when considering how the top players are going to produce.
Forwards Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stuetzle and Drake Batherson have controlled play at an utterly elite level as a line, generating a 59.9 xGF%.
Looking at forward lines that have played over 100 minutes together, the Senators top trio’s 4.14 expected goals for per 60 is the third highest in the NHL.
The talent is there for Stuetzle and Batherson to start finishing chances at a higher rate, and mixing in Chabot to get in on the offensive outburst makes a ton of sense being the top power-play quarterback.
Mixing in Tkachuk with this stack is obviously valid as well, but the percent of owners using a Senators stack without him will be slim to none, so fade that high price tag and hope the majority of damage comes from our trio.