Hockey fans have a short five-game NHL slate to finish out the NBA All-Star Break’s slate of NHL games. There are a couple of notable injury spots tonight, namely Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, so Awesemo subscribers should check our Discord for updates before making NHL lineups tonight on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s get to some NHL DFS picks, using our premium tools and data at the site as a guide. For non-subscribers, our fantasy hockey projections are free for everyone to view today, Feb. 23.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL at DET): DraftKings – $8,500; FanDuel – $9,800
Since returning from injury five games ago, Nathan MacKinnon has five points and 24 shots on goal, skating well over 20 minutes a game. While he has not had a monster game this year, that level of shot rate and ice time is great to see from an elite player returning from injury.
The matchup tonight going into Detroit is a good one for the Avalanche. By expected goals against, the Red Wings are allowing the ninth-most per 60 minutes in the league since Jan. 1. It puts them in company with teams like Anaheim and Philadelphia. MacKinnon and his line mates are generating over three expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, controlling 56% of the share. They are very good and MacKinnon is elite, so that makes this a good matchup.
There has been a price drop, rather, fluctuation, for him over on DraftKings and that certainly brings him into consideration for cash games. The bigger question is how to handle him in tournaments, because he is sure to carry a lot of ownership. Full stacking the line is not as expensive as it was, so just using the even-strength line is fine.
UPDATE:Â MacKinnon was announced out of the lineup after this was written. That could mean a lot more minutes for guys like Valeri Nichushkin and Nazem Kadri (who is now a replacement for MacKinnon in many DFS lineups.)
Tage Thompson (BUF at MTL): DraftKings – $6,500; FanDuel – $6,400
Considering the production Tage Thompson has had this year, his price on FanDuel is very reasonable tonight. The team is on the road, but they are facing the lowly Montreal Canadiens. They have improved the offense since firing their coach but the defense is still a big issue, as they are still in the bottom-5 for scoring chances allowed since the hiring of their new bench boss. That is not to say much of the penalty kill, which has generally been awful this year and will need some time to sort itself out.
Thompson is averaging over three shots per game, which is one thing that can separate him from mid-priced centers. His line has also been excellent since Alex Tuch returned from injury, generating 2.9 expected goals and 5.3 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
He is likely a bit too expensive for cash games in this road matchup, but his shooting prowess is appealing. It certainly makes him an attractive option for tournaments, along with his linemates. Players should also consider Rasmus Dahlin with that line in tournaments, given Montreal’s general penalty-killing issues this season.
Thompson was coming up as one of the best overall value plays in the NHL DFS optimizer today. Check out all of the rest of our free NHL picks tonight for your fantasy hockey lineups by looking at our DraftKings NHL DFS Cheat Sheet and FanDuel NHL DFS Cheat Sheet.
Winger
Jason Robertson (DAL vs. WPG): DraftKings – $6,500; FanDuel – $8,500
This is an instance where the site may make a big difference. On DraftKings, Jason Robertson is much cheaper than Joe Pavelski. On FanDuel, he is more expensive. These two play a lot of minutes together so just going with the cheaper option might sort a lot of headaches.
With that said, Robertson has been otherworldly since entering the league. He has 91 points in 92 games over the last two seasons, averaging roughly 2.5 shots per game, and doing all this as a rookie/sophomore. Mercifully, the team has started to give him more ice time of late, as he has been around 18:30 a night since the holiday break, against just 16:54 before that. He has been averaging three shots per game in that span, scoring 11 goals in 18 contests. Robertson really has been superb, and it is nice the coaches are giving him more ice time.
Hosting Winnipeg is a good matchup for the top line, too. Winnipeg’s top line is giving up as many expected goals as it is generating, and the actual goal differential is even worse. This is a solid matchup for the Dallas top line and that means both Robertson and Pavelski, depending on which site you are playing, deserve attention.
Adrian Kempe (LAK at ARI): DraftKings – $5,100; FanDuel – $5,500
There may not be a player in the league who is on a quieter 40-goal pace than Adrian Kempe. He is also just a shade below three shots per game on the year, which gives him a nice peripheral floor to work with. He is also skating 18 minutes a night over the last month or so, meaning there are a lot of solid peripherals supporting Kempe’s fantasy value.
Of course, going into Arizona is part of the appeal here. The Coyotes have an expected goals against rate, both at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill, in the bottom-5 of the league over the last six weeks. Regardless of the matchup for Kempe and his linemates, this is a good matchup at all strengths for the Kings.
The Los Angeles top line has struggled to score of late, scoring just three goals in their last 110 minutes of play. The big problem is them shooting just over 5%, something that will not persist. This is still a good line getting a great matchup against a bad team. Anyone not wanting to full-stack the entire line can just look for Kempe, as he skates a lot of the prime minutes, is a scorer and is not overly expensive.
Cole Caufield (MTL vs. BUF): DraftKings – $3,700; FanDuel – $4,700
The price on Cole Caufield has started to rise with his production of late, but he is nowhere near expensive on either site. He is also at home to a Buffalo team that, like the Arizona team mentioned above, is in the bottom-5 of the league by expected goals against both at 5-on-5 and when down a man. This is a good matchup for both teams given the poor quality of the other’s defense, but Caufield is very cheap, so he gets on the list here.
Caufield’s shot rate has not taken a big jump yet, but he is skating nearly three more minutes per game under their new coach compared to his first 30 games of the season. That ice time jump is important because it can give a very good value in the DFS game on a guy whose price has not risen considerably just yet.
At his price, Caufield is a flexible player for our lineups. He can be used as a one-off, given that it will not take a lot for him to exceed value. At the same time, his linemates are not expensive, either, and this is a good matchup for a line that will get depth matchups. The second-year winger should be considered in all formats tonight.
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Defensemen
Jakob Chychrun (ARI vs. LAK): DraftKings – $4,900; FanDuel – $5,100
On both sites listed here, Jakob Chychrun is down to a very reasonable price. The difference between the two sites, namely the value of peripherals like shots and blocks, means that Chychrun is likely better used on DraftKings and FanDuel. A lot of his value is tied in peripherals, so those playing FanDuel may want to consider his teammate Shayne Gostisbehere instead, given his power-play role.
A big problem with Chychrun’s value when he returned from injury was ice time, skating under 20:30 a night for his first five games. February has been a different story, though, skating an even 22 minutes a night over his last eight games. For a guy that relies on peripherals with 26 shots and 16 blocks in those eight games, additional ice time is key. He is fine in all formats on DraftKings tonight.
Ryan McDonagh (TB vs. EDM): DraftKings – $2,900; FanDuel – $4,900
It should be known that the Tampa Bay Lightning has been off for more than a week, and when teams take long pauses during a season, they can turn to rust. If that should be the case, Ryan McDonagh is in a prime position to block some shots from an Oilers team that looks to have turned its season around.
On the season, McDonagh is averaging 1.8 blocks per game. He does not shoot a lot, but that is why his price is depressed to where it is on DraftKings. He regularly plays over 23 minutes a night, giving him lots of time to rack his peripherals against this Oilers team.
For those playing on FanDuel, his teammate Erik Cernak is much more reasonably priced and brings much of the same things to the fantasy game that McDonagh does.
Goalie
Karel Vejmelka (ARI vs. LA): DraftKings – $7,300; FanDuel – $6,700
By high-danger save percentage, one indicator of true goalie talent, Karel Vejmelka is in the top 10 of the league this season. There is not a huge sample of games from him, but he has been solid for a very bad team. Arizona is still giving up among the most shots per 60 minutes in the league, and that volume for Vejmelka could lead to a very good fantasy night. His price means he does not necessarily need a win, either, provided he does not get lit up.
Top NHL DFS Stack
EDM2: Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto; 1.8% leverage by Top Stacks
As mentioned in the section on McDonagh, it has been a while since the Lightning has played. Even at their best, Tampa Bay’s second line was giving up as many scoring chances as it was generating. Any sort of rust against a Leon Draisaitl line generating over 32 scoring chances per 60 minutes could go poorly. Tampa Bay has great goaltending, but this matchup will keep people away from the Oilers, and that sparse ownership is what to look for in tournaments.
For those playing on FanDuel that do not want to pay exorbitant prices for this road team going into Tampa Bay, consider the Buffalo top line going into Montreal.
LAK2: Moore – Danault – Arvidsson; 1.1% by Top Stacks leverage
There was a time when Los Angeles’s second line could be slammed into DFS lineups because of the price, but they have gotten more expensive. All the same, they are still generating over 4.1 expected goals and 4.5 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 spanning the last month. Viktor Arvidsson has also jumped to the top PP unit, which gives them some additional upside in this matchup and Arizona has an awful penalty kill.
*Additional Data from Natural Stat Trick
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