NHL DFS Picks & Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | Edmonton Oilers & Patrice Bergeron 3/5/22

Saturdays are generally jam-packed with NHL hockey, but we only have six games to work with on the evening fantasy hockey slate. We don’t get a huge player pool to make our NHL DFS picks from, but there’s enough of a variety without having to pigeon-hole players. We will be using the premium tools and data here at Awesemo, like our NHL DFS Top Stacks tool, to aid in our selections. Subscribers should be sure to check in the Discord when warmups start for any line changes or injuries. We’ll take a position-by-position outlook at some of the best pay-up plays and value plays when building our NHL DFS lineups today.

NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays

Center

Patrice Bergeron (BOS at CBJ): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $6,600

Columbus is playing a back-to-back tonight, having played last night at home as well. They will be going with a tired starting goalie and that’s an advantage out of the gate for Boston.

Though Patrice Bergeron is still having a good season with an 82-game pace of 24 goals, 66 points and 313 shots. His issue is his shooting percentage, which is sitting at 7.7% on the year, against 14.6% spanning the prior three seasons. His individual scoring chances are in line with career norms, so it’s just been a run of bad luck. If that turns around, the final third of the season could be a huge stretch for him. Even if he doesn’t, landing nearly four shots on goal per game gives him a high peripheral floor to work with. It is part of the reason why he’s one of the top projected centers, both by total points and raw value, on either DraftKings or FanDuel tonight.

The matchup with Columbus is a good one, beyond the goaltending situation. They have the third-most expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 as a team over the last six weeks with commensurate actual goals against. Bergeron loves to shoot and his line has been excellent, even if his wingers have shifted around at times. He is fine in all tournament formats tonight by himself or in a line stack.

The NHL projections seemed partial to Bergeron in this matchup when running optimals in the NHL optimizer. He’s one of the top NHL DFS picks today and you can find all of the rest of our free NHL optimizer picks in our DraftKings NHL Cheat Sheet and FanDuel NHL Cheat Sheet.

Tomas Hertl (SJS vs. NSH): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $6,200

The two wingers skating with Tomas Hertl tonight have helped the team generate nearly 50 scoring chances per 60 minutes in their ice time together this year. Not that we can expect that absurdly high number to persist, but it shows the kind of offensive upside the trio has. On the season, Hertl is averaging a three-year high in both shots and goals per game. Hopefully, the trio can come together to be a formidable top line.

Beyond just his 5-on-5 line, the power-play matchup is important here. Nashville is one of the most penalized teams in the league over the last six weeks, coming in with the second-most time short-handed. The penalty kill itself is middle of the road, and that’s not good enough when taking so many penalties. Erik Karlsson’s injury does make the San Jose power play less imposing, but hopefully a high volume of penalties makes up the difference.

Despite it being a reasonable matchup for Hertl, he has a winger that shoots much more than him in Timo Meier, so it hurts his cash game value. In tournaments, though, the entire top line warrants our consideration and Hertl is fine to use for anyone needing a one-off at center.

Winger

Evander Kane (EDM vs. MTL): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $6,800

Montreal is in Edmonton tonight and while the Canadiens have improved greatly under their new coach, injuries and a thin roster leaves the defensive side exposed. Montreal is still 25th by scoring chances allowed at 5-on-5 under his coaching, and in the bottom-10 of the league on the penalty kill as well. The offense has improved but the defense is leaving much to be desired.

That is great news for Evander Kane and his teammates tonight. Edmonton is enduring some injuries of their own, but that has led to more ice time for Kane, who has been above 20 minutes in four straight games, and above 22 in three straight contests. He is averaging nearly three shots per game as a member of the Oilers, and he should be in a position to fire some pucks against this weak defense.

Given the matchup, his role, and ice time, Kane at least warrants consideration in cash games tonight. The Oilers will be highly owned in general, according to the NHL DFS ownership projections, but the power play is a great way to stack across various lines, avoiding duplications. He is fine to use by himself in tournaments this evening, but any kind of line or power-play stack is perfectly acceptable.

Tyler Toffoli (CGY at COL): DraftKings – $4,000 | FanDuel – $5,900

Colorado is an excellent team but if they have one weakness, it’s their third and fourth lines. While not usually a big issue against most teams, Calgary is in town and they feature a very useful, if not productive third line. Tyler Toffoli is the reason for that, as he was traded there a few weeks ago. He has eight points in eight games with his new team because of a bit of luck, but because he also plays the top power play. Not that Colorado’s penalty kill is bad, but Calgary’s power play has been great most of this season, and that is important for Toffoli’s fantasy value.

It may appear that ice time is an issue as he’s under 15 minutes a night with the Flames. But it is a bit misleading. He skated around 12 minutes in his first three games with the team, but that was when he wasn’t on the top power-play unit. He got moved up five games ago and is up to 15:43 a night over that time. It’s not extreme, but there’s a huge difference between 12 minutes a night and nearly 16 minutes a night with top PP minutes.

At his price with his role, Toffoli makes a fine one-off for tournaments tonight.

Nick Robertson (TOR vs. VAN): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $3,000

The second line for Toronto has been a bit of a mess. The duo of John Tavares and William Nylander have been outscored nearly 2:1 in their nearly 200 minutes over the last six weeks together. A lot of is bad goaltending, but they’ve also lost nearly a half-goal per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 compared to earlier in the year. They are also generating fewer scoring chances, so it’s not a run of bad luck. They aren’t playing poorly, but they’re not playing to the level needed of a Stanley Cup contender.

Enter Nick Robertson. The Leafs prospect fractured his leg back in the fall and hadn’t played in the NHL until the end of February. He has been moved to the second line, in hopes he can spark some much-needed offense for the trio. He has 24 points in his last 30 games in the minors, and is generally regarded as a highly skilled prospect.

Of course, it’s the price that draws us here. His linemates can be great offensively, and it wouldn’t take much for him to pay off his cost. He is fine to use as a punt tonight but should also be considered in a full-line stack.


Latest NHL DFS Content


Defensemen

Roman Josi (NSH at SJS): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $7,200

With both Karlsson and James Reimer injured, the Sharks are enduring some very key injuries right now. As it is, the team is at the bottom of the league by expected goals against at 5-on-5 over the last six weeks, and in the bottom-5 by actual goals against. They have some scorers, but they have no depth, and that’s the kind of matchup an elite defenseman like Roman Josi can feast on. In the NHL projections, we have him projected for over two points more than the next-closest defenseman on DraftKings tonight, and more than 1.5 more points on FanDuel.

What makes Josi so valuable is that he can bring everything to the table fantasy-wise. He is averaging 3.5 shots per game on the season and 1.6 blocks. He has reached one of those bonuses on DraftKings a combined 28 times on the season, or over half his games. He is also over a point per game on the season. No matter the format, Josi should be at the top of the list for consideration, whether by himself or with some of his forward teammates.

Devon Toews (COL vs. CGY): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $6,700

DraftKings has priced down Devon Toews of late, seemingly a reflection of Colorado not scoring as much of late. He is a defenseman that loves to jump into the play or just start the play from the back-end, and that’s helped him manage 9 points in his last 10 games, even if the team hasn’t been filling the net. He has 36 total shots and blocks in that span as well so there are some peripherals to work with, though not a high floor for his price.

Regardless of his peripherals, Toews plays for an elite offensive team, skates 24 minutes a night, and is a wonderful puck-mover on his own. At a reasonable price across the industry, he needs to be considered in tournaments, both on his own or in a Colorado stack. Given his high price on FanDuel, just moving up $400 to Cale Makar makes more sense.

Goalie

Jacob Markstrom (CGY at COL): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $7,700

Undoubtedly, it is a tough matchup going into Colorado. But they are taking the third-most shot attempts per 60 minutes over the last six weeks, behind only Florida and this Calgary team. On the season, the Avalanche are second in the league in shot rate at home, so they should be able to generate some shots against the Flames, and that is what makes Jacob Markstrom a tournament target tonight. By our goalie projections, he should see amongst the most rubber tonight, and he still plays on one of the best teams in hockey.

Top NHL DFS Stacks Today

EDM1: Foegele-McDavid-Hyman

There are any number of ways to stack the Oilers in this matchup tonight, and one of them is just to go with the top even strength line. One reason is because of how cheap Warren Foegele is, which lowers the average cost per player. The other is that they’re just a very good line, at least in their small sample together, controlling 56% of the shot attempts and 53% of the scoring chances. They also have a great matchup tonight with the Canadiens in town, and two out of these three guys skate on the top PP unit. Other players can be added, but this trio strikes a nice balance between value and upside, even if they will carry high ownership. There’s a good reason why they have the second-highest top-2 stack percentage by our NHL DFS Top Stacks tool.

WSHPP: Ovechkin-Backstrom-Carlson

The Washington power play has struggled at times this year, but the Seattle penalty kill has been poor of late; over the last six weeks, they’re 28th by expected goals against while short-handed and 27th by actual goals against. They are taking more penalties now than they were earlier in the year, so this is a good matchup for the Capitals, even if the power play hasn’t been as good as in recent seasons. Any of their power-play skaters can be used, as the three mentioned are just one possible stack that can be made.

*Additional Data from Natural Stat Trick

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Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

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