NHL DFS: Power Plays and Stacks, October 12th (FREE)

A19547603It’s Saturday and that means Hockey Night in Canada (America too) and some NHL DFS PICKS for your daily fantasy hockey lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel For more analysis on the slate, check out Nolan Kelly’s Line Change article before lock, as well as Awesemo’s NHL Projections and Rankings. You can also subscribe to the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel to get notifications when “Hit The Ice” (4ET Weekdays) goes live!

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Don’t forget to check out Votts’ Twitter list @Votts_DFSfor all of the NHL teams, and a separate list of all the beat writers individually for you to follow, it’s a great tool and a necessity, for an edge in NHL DFS.


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NHL DFS Forward

Sebastian Aho: (Grades: A, Values: A on DraftKings, A on FanDuel)

Aho and CAR1 haven’t produced on the scoreboard much this season, but the chances are still coming. This unit a spectacular 43 Scoring Chances For (SCF) and 19 High Danger Chances For (HDCF) to start the 2019 season, picking up right where they left off in 2018-19. Aho, for his part is due for some serious positive shooting percentage regression. His 25 shots are second in the NHL, but he has just one goal to show for them. Of course, you shouldn’t just play Aho alone, unless it’s in cash. Pair him up with the rest of his super-cheat CAR1 linemates.

NHL DFS Defensemen

Dougie Hamilton (Grades: A, Values: A on DraftKings, A on FanDuel)

Is this the Dougie Hamilton breakout year we’ve all been waiting for? Touts, DFSers and analytics people haven’t been shy about touting the greatness of Hamilton over the past couple years – his shot and change generation have been among the best in the game. At all strengths over the past season +, he’s first in Expected Goals For per 60 (XGF/60), third in the NHL in HDCF and 5th in SCF. He currently leads the Hurricanes in power play ice-time as well (21st in the NHL) despite being listed on the PP2. DFSers are going to be scared off by his price point – but you shouldn’t be, because it’s indicative of how good he really is. Hamilton’s got a plus home matchup against the Blue Jackets, who are on back-to-backs, and the Hurricanes are implied for the highest goal total on the slate (3.9 GF).

Too cheap:

  • Don’t care about the matchup, P.K. Subban (C,A) is a bargain any way you slice on DraftKings at $4400. He’s a good bet for 22-26 minutes and all the power play time he can handle.
  • Josh Morrissey (C, A) quarterbacks the Jets power play, up against the Blackhawks atrocious PK. He’ll have strong correlation with WPG1.

Stack of the Night

Winnipeg 1: Patrik LaineMark ScheifeleBlake Wheeler (Points: A, Values: A on DraftKings, B on FanDuel)

Sure to be one of the most popular combos on the night, this line is spitting hot fire to start the season with a combined seven goal and 16 assists through five games. Their SCF and HDCF have been atrocious so far, but the sample size is small and it’s safe to say they’re in line for some positive regression. That regression could come tonight, with a matchup against possibly the worst defensive team in the NHL, the Chicago Blackhawks on tap. The Blackhawks are giving up the most HDCA and SCA in the NHL this season, which is in line with what we saw from them all of last year. A matchup against either CHI1 or CHI2 is a huge plus, and you get full power play correlation.

Other top option

Boston 1: David PastrnakPatrice BergeronBrad Marchand (Points: A, Values: A on DraftKings, A on FanDuel)

Boston returns form a West Coast swing to face off against the New Jersey Devils, with the 2nd highest implied goal total on the slate. These three will get 20+ minutes together, and full PP1 correlation. Jersey has been mediocre defensively thus far. Over the past year they’ve averaged 20 SCF and 12 HDCF

Contrarian Stack

Florida 1: Jonathan HuberdeauAleksander BarkovMike Hoffman (Points: A, Values: B on DraftKings, C on FanDuel) 

I don’t expect the Florida Panthers top line (Grade: A, Value: B) to get much ownership tonight, after continually burning everyone on every slate so far this season. As well, there’s some recency bias in the works here too, with FLA1 duding yesterday as the highest owned slate on the board. The now go back-to-back against the Islanders on the road, which should lower ownership even more (We now have premium NHL ownership projections). Here’s the thing though: The Islanders haven’t been there usual shutdown selves lately. They’re currently allowing the second most SCA as a team (32.93) and seventh most HDCA (11.97). FLA1 is also punitively expensive and not a great value. This trio has been mediocre at 5v5 over the past season+ with 22.41 SCF and 10.9 HDCF, but you do get full power play correlation.

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