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Slate strategy
I think we’re all pretty sure that CGY1 and WPG1 are going to soak up the bulk of ownership tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them in the 25% range – possibly higher at lower stakes. If you immediately want to gain leverage, consider fading both of them in the same lineup, because anywhere from 50-60% of lineups are going to have one of those stacks. That is, of course, as scary as a fade gets, and I wouldn’t employ that strategy unless you’re only putting in one or two lineups.
But there are some other nice line stacks that are going to come in low-owned as a result. PIT1 will see reduced ownership on the road, and Jake Guentzel is now on the PP1 as a result of the Hornqvist injury. As well, BUF1 won’t get as much action as they should, with Reinhart off the top line, and Jack Eichel coming back from injury (as of writing, still listed on the DL). They should come in slightly under 10%.
Power Plays
Evgeni Malkin: Grade: A, Values: B,C
No Patric Hornqvist means Malkin has some weak wingers on his flanks tonight. Though that makes him a slightly worse play overall, it also makes him a great solo-play. He has no PP correlation with Tanner Pearson or Dominik Simon, and he’s going to come in low-owned as a result his price point. You can use him in a one-off in tournaments and hope that he scores with non-correlated linemates on the Penguins Power Play, or stack him with the rest of the Pens PP1. Malkin leads the Penguins in PP shots and Anaheim commits the 4th most penalties in the NHL.
FORWARDS
- Tage Thompson isn’t the most exciting offensive player in the world. He’s only averaged a point ever four games in his career, but he does generate a decent amount of 5v5 shots (4th on the Sabres in shots for per 60). He’ll get a chance with Eichel and Skinner tonight on BUF1, but is not on the PP1.
- Continuing with the Sabres, Vlad Sobotka isn’t the greatest hockey player in the world, but he does get to centre Sam Reinhart and Connor Sheary on BUF2. For near the bare min, I’ll take it. BUF2 as a whole should be a decent, low-owned tournament play.
- Dennis Malgin had a goal last night on FLA1, with 18 minutes of ice-time. Not bad for a player near the bare min on both sites.
- Jack Roslovic is still near the bare min on both sites. He’s got offensive upside and is getting increased minutes since Nikolaj Ehlers went down, on a line with Patrick Laine and Bryan Little.
DEFENCE
Josh Morrissey (B: C, A) and Jacob Trouba (B: A, B)
You can use both of these same-pairing tonight, in the same stack, as part of a WPG1 stack or a PP1 stack. They both got between 15-20 minutes with WPG1 last game (on the road), but that should only increase in the absence of Tyler Myers. I expect each of them to get between 25-30 minutes tonight, which, given their offensive upside, makes for fantastic value at that price point. Morrisseey is WAY too cheap on FanDuel, $800 less than he is on DK.
Cheap options
- Another day another Lawrence Pilut He’s still up on the top-pairing with Rasmus Ristolainen. Those two have insanely good numbers together. 17 HDCF per 60, 8.71 against, with a 63% corsi for. Pilut is an offensive threat, who’s on the PP2 and should probably priced $1000-1500 more, given his currenty ice-time and opportunity. His days of flying under the radar are numbered though. While we’ve been getting him at sub-5% ownership recently, I’d expect that to be closer to 10% tonight.
- I wrote up Aaron Ekblad as a value last night and the results weren’t great, but he’s still underpriced at $4200 on DK and $4500 on FD though. 25 minutes a game, he shoots the puck and he’s on the PP2, in what should be a high-event game tonight with a high implied total.
Goaltenders:
Ownership is going to be crucial tonight. Expect Laurent Brossoit (Grade: A, Values: A,A) to approach 30% in tournaments. In a vacuum he’s a great play, at home as a -211 favorite with the Red Wings implied for just 2.6 goals. Still, the Red Wings don’t generate a lot of shots (27th in the league), so a fade here makes a lot of sense. I’m going to be overweight on John Gibson (betting on talent) and Carter Hutton (flow-chart play against the Hurricanes), and David Rittich (FLA averages 34.1 shots per game) and hope that the Red Wings can get a couple past Brossoit with a low shot total. Tonight, on these small slates, you’ve got to have the highest total goalie on your team, and Brossoit’s upside isn’t as high as the three goalies I’ve just mentioned.
Fades:
The Anaheim D-corps, specifically Cam Fowler, Brandon Montour, and Hampus Lindholm is muddled right now, and I’ll be staying away. You have Montour and Lindholm, who are priced up because of their PP time and minutes increase in the absence of Cam Fowler. But now Fowler is back, and on the PP1, but hasn’t done much since returning. They all sort of cancel each other out at those price points, in my mind, and I’ll be going elsewhere tonight.