We’re now through Round 2 of the Australian Open, and looking ahead to the best tennis betting picks and odds for Round 3.
Round 2 Recap
By far the biggest upset of the second round was the ageless Hsieh Su-Wei defeating Bianca Andreescu in two sets. In hindsight, it’s easy to see how her approach to the game and point construction would lead to a lot of struggles for a player who was coming off of a nearly two-year layoff. Andreescu was extremely troubled by the angles Hsieh was hitting the ball from as well as the different spins that were being put on the ball. The other major upset on the women’s side was Kaia Kanepi rolling through defending champion Sofia Kenin. However, that match closed at a pick-’em, so the upset was only according to the seeding.
There were no major upsets on the men’s side. Frances Tiafoe gave Novak Djokovic a real match and was somewhat unlucky to not force a tiebreak in the fourth set. Thanasi Kokkinakis also gave Tsitsipas a real upset scare. Despite not dropping a set, Rafael Nadal has seen his odds to win drop from +550 to +800. There’s clearly a lot of concern about his health from oddsmakers even though we haven’t really seen a drop in play from him.
Australian Open Round 3 Tennis Betting Picks | 2/11
Round 3 Preview
Nick Kyrgios – Dominic Thiem: In theory, this is a spot Kyrgios will be game for. There’s never any doubting the mercurial Australian’s talent, as he’s one of the very few players who have won a match against each of the Big Three. If he’s motivated and he shows up to play, this has the potential to be the best match of the third round, and he’s definitely a live underdog at +338.
Felix Auger Aliassime – Denis Shapovalov: Had Auger-Aliassime managed to win one of them, there would be a lot of talk about how amazing it is that he has made seven ATP finals before he turned 21. The head-to-head favors Shapovalov at 3-2, with four of those matches happening on hardcourts and the first occurring when Auger-Aliassime was 16. My model has this lined at Auger-Aliassime -109, so I was really surprised to see him open at +135 and move all the way down to +160.
Aryna Sabalenka – Ann Li: Blasphemous as it may be to say this about different match than Naomi Osaka – Ons Jabeur, this matchup may feature the hardest hitting of Round 3. Caught in the shadow of other, more famous, young Americans — e.g. Sofia Kenin, Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff — Li has mostly come out of nowhere to become a serious threat to make a deep run in this tournament. While she doesn’t possess a powerful serve like Sabalenka, Li has very strong groundstrokes that force a lot of errors from her opponents. It’s therefore no surprise that her best finish as a junior was on the grass courts at Wimbledon in 2017, where she placed second.
Round 3 Tennis Betting Picks:
Iga Swiatek -5 Games: In my Round 2 Preview, I mentioned that I was impressed by Swiatek’s form and was going to look to back her if it continued. Well, it has, as she cruised by Camila Giorgi 6-2, 6-4 in a match that was not even that close. Fiona Ferro has proven herself to be a tough out, especially on clay, but she was very fortunate to beat Elena Rybakina in two sets (0.94 Dominance Ratio). Plus, the surface speed on these courts in Melbourne should massively favor Swiatek.
Nick Kyrgios +338: See above.
Felix Auger-Aliassime +160: See above. I’m also considering doing a rolling moneyline bet with him where we take the money from betting on him in the previous round and bet him to win in the next.
Pedro Martinez (+118): Dusan Lajovic has won both times he has faced Martinez. Both took place on the “Golden Swing” in South America, the time period traditionally between the Australian Open and Indian Wells where the ATP Tour moves to the Western Hemisphere. Both matches were also extremely close, with three of the five sets going to tiebreaks, and they were both on clay courts. I have Martinez with slightly better surface numbers than Lajovic on hard courts, making +118 a value buy.
Sara Errani (+146): Full disclosure, backing Errani on hard courts, or really ever at all, is scary. You never know when her serve is going to completely abandon her and she’ll have to start serving underhand again. Errani owns the head-to-head here, with three sweeps and three clean sets in three matches. Of course, it’s really hard to tell how much stock to put into that when the first matchup between these two occurred in 2008. I think this is a bad matchup for Hsieh, as Errani’s movement and positioning should keep her in points. Her lack of power and experience also means she shouldn’t ever feel the need to force the issue to win points.
Donna Vekic (+186): Kaia Kanepi is getting a lot of (deserved) hype for her dominant win against Kenin. What’s going more under the radar is the return to form of Vekic, who has looked much more like the top 20 player we saw headed into the 2020 season. It’s entirely possible that Kanepi continues to utilize the fast courts in Melbourne and rolls through Vekic. However, after watching her match against Kenin, I’m wondering just how healthy Kenin was. I think the look here is either Kanepi minus 3.5 games or Vekic on the moneyline.
Australian Open Parlay Ideas
If you’re looking to build a favorites parlay, these are the ones I think represent the best value of price compared to their probability of winning: Iga Swiatek, Serena Williams, Alex de Minaur, Milos Raonic, Garbine Muguruza, Jennifer Brady.
Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including more tennis betting picks and predictions.
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