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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Lakers vs. Heat
Jimmy Butler Over 6.5 Assists: -154 (BetMGM) Â
A pivotal Game 4 is set to begin tonight, and for the Miami Heat it is another must-win situation. They impressively found a way to get this series to 2-1 despite playing shorthanded and now need to avoid the dreaded 3-1 hole to the Lakers. We will have to wait and see if anyone on the Heat can return from injury, but regardless, Butler clearly will be their leader.
The player prop market has a ton available for the NBA finals, but I am going to stick with Butler and go to his assist prop at 6.5. Even though it is heavily juiced at -150 to -180 on some sites, this is a rare situation where I am willing to pay that vig and lean towards the over. The dynamic of the Heat right now forces Butler to do everything, and I don’t see that changing much if at all in this Game 4. In fact, coming off a 14-for-20 shooting performance, I could see Butler looking to get others involved even more if the Lakers devote even more attention to stopping his scoring.
In Game 3 Butler played 45 minutes, and with the injuries it feels like he will have to do that once again. He has had 13 assists in two straight games, which is double this prop, so any similar performance will have this cashing early and often. The Heat are 7.5-point underdogs, but I don’t worry about a blowout since this is the Finals and teams aren’t going to remove players under any circumstances. With Butler taking on a LeBron James-esque role, it is a great spot to attack his props and specifically this assist number, which is too low.
The best number I see is at BetMGM, where Butler is -154. That is cheap compared to the -185 I see on most other sites. Pinnacle has this prop over at -197, so again we see a lot of value in the -154 number despite it being juiced heavily. If this prop happens to move to over/under seven assists, the line will shrink towards that -110 range, and I feel comfortable still attacking the over in that situation.
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