NFL Prop Bet Pick of the Day | Week 10 Monday Night Football Bears vs Vikings

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NFL Betting Picks: Week 10 Monday Night Football NFL Odds

Nick Foles Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: -135 (William Hill, as of 9:30 a.m.)

We close out Week 10 of the NFL with an important divisional game from the NFC North. The Vikings travel to Chicago to take on the Bears in a game that is expected to stay competitive. Minnesota is a 3-point favorite on the road with an over/under at 43.5 points. Both of these teams absolutely need this game if they want playoff hopes, so a lot is on the line.

For a player prop I am going to Nick Foles. His passing touchdown prop sits at 1.5 tonight and despite the struggles for this Bears team I am going to back Foles and go over in this spot. The first reason to think Foles may be busy tonight is that the backfield for Chicago is a mess with David Montgomery joining Tarik Cohen on the sidelines. This is going to force them into a pass-heavy attack if they either fall behind or have limited success with the remaining backs. That’s not a bad thing for them, as Minnesota’s secondary has been an issue all year. They are allowing 7.8 yards per passing attempt, which ranks 27th. Foles should have opportunities to make plays on the outside regardless of game script.

The passing volume for Chicago is another reason to back this prop, as Foles is dropping back early and often. He’s thrown 39 or more passes in all six of his starts and is coming off a game against Tennessee where he dropped back 52 times. That type of opportunity is what we want when backing an over here, and I don’t see that script changing tonight. The price is a reasonable -135, which I am comfortable backing before it possibly steams closer to -150. The combination of the matchup with the Vikings secondary and the fact Chicago is a one-dimensional offense is the situation we want for this prop, and the price is right to place a wager.


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Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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