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Best MLB Bets Today (5/23): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

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The week begins with a 12-game schedule of Major League Baseball action. In addition to two games with Vegas run totals of nine runs or more according to OddsShopperGerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler headline a variety of pitchers with interesting strikeout prop lines, according to our best ROI bets today. The weather forecast across the league’s host ballparks features a couple of trouble areas for potential rainouts, including Atlanta’s Truist Park, which we’ll need to keep tabs on throughout the day as we build out our betting slips.

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Best MLB Bets Today: Free Baseball Prop Betting Picks 5/23

Jordan Lyles O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Jordan Lyles has a 20.1% strikeout rate and .275 average against as he faces the New York Yankees for the fourth time this season. At OddsShopper Lyles has a 4.5 total strikeouts prop featuring +102 odds on the over. Lyles is averaging 5.2 innings pitched per game this season with 0.87 strikeouts per inning, putting him on pace for the necessary five total strikeouts to clinch the over should he remain on the mound for his average tenure. The Yankees have a 21.5% strikeout rate and .243 batting average against right-handed pitching this season while posting a 10.8% swinging-strike rate, which is around the league median. In Lyles’ most recent start, also coming against the Yankees, he tossed eight strikeouts with five hits and two runs earned against in seven innings pitched (106 pitches). Over eight starts Lyles has managed five outings exceeding five strikeouts or more while lasting over 89 pitches in each. Provided a longer leash on the mound while at plus money odds, Lyles’ strikeout prop for Monday is value worth considering.

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MLB Prop Pick: Jordan Lyles OVER 4.5 Total Strikeouts (+102)


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Willson Contreras O/U 1.5 Total Bases | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Willson Contreras has a .258 batting average, 20.1% strikeout rate, and .405 xwOBA this season, drawing a favorable opponent in the Cincinnati Reds, with Vladimir Gutierrez on the mound today. At OddsShopper Contreras carries a player prop of 1.5 total bases with rewarding +116 odds on the over. The year has not been kind to Gutierrez who has a .292 average against and 6.23 xFIP when facing right-handed hitting. Contreras has a .241 batting average, .780 OPS, and 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year. Though Contreras’ 21.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching isn’t the most appealing, he’s little to be concerned with Gutierrez tossing just an 11.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitting this season. In 83 at-bats against righties this year Contreras has hit 13 singles, four doubles, and three home runs. With strikeouts not as worrisome of a factor against Gutierrez, the plus money odds on Contreras to notch two bases or more is among our best baseball betting picks today.

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MLB Prop Pick: Willson Contreras OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+116)

Nick Castellanos O/U 0.5 Total Home Runs | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Nick Castellanos has a .265 batting average, 24% strikeout rate, and .166 ISO this season as he faces Tucker Davidson and the Atlanta Braves tonight. Castellanos has a 0.5 total home runs prop with +425 odds on the over at OddsShopper. Davidson has a 14.8% strikeout rate and .304 average against right-handed hitting in two starts this season while a career 1.25 home runs per nine innings and 33.8% hard-contact against the split add intrigue to Castellanos’ prop. Castellanos is swinging a .366 batting average, .171 ISO, and 169 wRC+ against lefty pitching this year with two home runs against the split. While Castellanos lofty strikeout rate draws concern, Davidson’s 14.1% career strikeout rate against right-handed hitting embellishes some relief. A humid Truist Park couldn’t hurt his chances as Castallanos’ home run prop is another over for Monday’s ticket.

MLB Prop Pick: Nick Castellanos OVER 0.5 Total Home Runs (+425)

Jeff McNeil O/U 1.5 Total Bases | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Jeff McNeil is swinging a .306 batting average, 10.6% strikeout rate, and .778 OPS this season facing Alex Cobb and the San Francisco Giants tonight. OddsShopper features a 1.5 total bases prop for McNeil with +130 odds on the over. Cobb has a 27.1% strikeout rate with a .318 average against and .452 BABIP when facing left-handed hitting this season. McNeil is smashing right-handed pitching with a .351 batting average, .878 OPS, and 156 wRC+ including 27 singles, 10 doubles, a triple, and a home run in 111 at-bats against the split this year. Though Cobb has his strikeouts up through six starts, McNeil’s 6.7% strikeout rate bears little fear in backing this player prop in need of just two bases to cash in. Rounding out a ticket with additional plus money odds to boot, McNeil’s total bases prop cements among our best MLB predictions today.

MLB Prop Pick: Jeff McNeil OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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