It’s Saturday, July 9th and Saturdays are usually a busy day of MLB games spread out throughout the day. The first game starts at 2:10 pm Eastern, and there are only four night games after 7:05 pm Eastern tonight. If interested in betting baseball today, one has to get a jump early on it. Most of the picks below occur after 4:00 pm Eastern, so if you are finding this in the mid-afternoon, it will not be too late. The Phillies and Cardinals continue their competitive series this afternoon, with a couple of exciting pitching matchups such as Carlos Rodon and Yu Darvish in San Diego, and Alek Manoah and Robbie Ray in Seattle. With all the games going on, it can be difficult to prioritize the best MLB bets today.
OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are three strikeout props, three home run props and one total bases prop— our best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Kyle Wright O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Kyle Wright pitches to the Washington Nationals today. Wright has a 3.43 xFIP, a 25.1% strikeout rate, and averages 1.02 strikeouts per inning. He is coming off of three straight outings of four strikeouts or less, however, prior to this stretch, he went over 4.5 strikeouts in 11 of his first 13 starts this season. The Stokastic MLB Model projects Wright for 5.8 strikeouts and gives him a 67% chance of going over this prop for a 28% expected ROI.
Pick: Kyle Wright OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Carlos Rodon O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Carlos Rodon is pitching opposite Yu Darvish in Petco Park against the Padres tonight. Rodon has a 30.4% strikeout rate this season and averages 1.23 strikeouts per inning. On average, he would have to pitch between 5.2 and 6.0 innings to go over this total. The last time he faced the Padres this season, he pitched six innings and struck out six batters. OddsShopper has him projected for 7.1 strikeouts and gives him a 57% chance of going over this prop tonight.
Pick: Carlos Rodon OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
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Jack Suwinski To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Jack Suwinski and the Pirates face Brandon Woodruff and the Milwaukee Brewers. Suwinski is a big-time power threat but that is pretty much all he does as he has a .299 OBP and a .245 ISO with 14 home runs in 66 games played. Woodruff is one of the best pitchers in the game with a 3.00 xFIP and a 31.4% strikeout rate. One negative to Woodruff is he does allow home runs — this year he is allowing 1.15 HR/9. His last start was on July 3rd against Pittsburgh, so Suwinski will get a second look at him inside of a week. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Suwinski an 18% chance of hitting a home run tonight, while the +700 odds imply a 12.5% chance of hitting one, giving this bet a 45% ROI making it the best prop bet of the day from an expected ROI perspective.
Pick: Jack Suwinski To Hit A Home Run (+700)
Brandon Woodruff O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Brandon Woodruff will go against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Milwaukee this afternoon. Woodruff has a high strikeout rate (31.4%) and averages 1.3 strikeouts per inning. His last start was against the Pirates where he struck out eight batters in six innings pitched. Given the fact that he will face Pittsburgh again in less than a week, bodes well for Pittsburgh to possibly strike out less. If looking at the bigger picture, Woodruff has struck out eight or more batters in four of his 11 starts this season. The Stokastic MLB Model projects Woodruff for 6.7 strikeouts today.
Pick: Brandon Woodruff UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Spencer Torkelson To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Spencer Torkelson will face Johnny Cueto and the Chicago White Sox this afternoon. Torkelson is having a tough season with a .289 OBP and .102 ISO. In the past week, he has picked it up with a .346 OBP and .136 ISO with one home run. On the other hand, Cueto is pitching a little over his head right now as he has a 3.30 ERA but a 4.25 xFIP and 4.50 xERA. He is also allowing 1.35 HR/9 and a 42.7% hard-hit rate. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Torkelson a 17% chance of hitting a home run while +750 odds imply an 11.8% chance. This difference gives this bet a 43% expected ROI.
Pick: Austin Hays To Hit A Home Run (+750)
Vlad Guerrero Jr. To Hit A Home Run & OU 1.5 TB | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Vlad Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays will face Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Although it is not his 2021 season, Vlad is still having a nice season with a .350 OBP, .223 ISO, and 19 home runs in 83 games, on pace for 35-37 home runs or so on the season. He has a .255 ISO and .395 wOBA against LHP this season. Ray is having a solid season as well but he has always allowed some hard contact. He is allowing 1.29 HR/9 with a career rate of 1.35 HR/9. He has a hard-hit allowed rate of 39.6% and a career mark of 40.3%. The model gives Guerrero a 25% chance of hitting a home run tonight while +400 odds imply a 20% chance. This bet has a 24% expected ROI. Given his strong track record against LHP, going over 1.5 Total Bases is a recommended bet to make as well — in case he does get a hold of one but it hits the wall.
Pick: Vlad Guerrero Jr. To Hit A Home Run (+400); Vlad Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
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