Best MLB Bets Today: Baseball Prop Picks & Predictions Friday 7/1

It’s July 1, Canada Day, and also the first day of the Fourth of July weekend! Nothing goes better together than summer holidays and baseball, and there is a full slate of games on tap today. One of the highlights with pitching is Corbin Burnes and Roansy Contreras dueling in Pittsburgh tonight. Gerrit Cole will pitch to one of the lowest-strikeout teams in baseball in the Cleveland Guardians in what should be an exciting series. Cleveland is coming off of beating the Minnesota Twins in three of five games as they try to gain the lead in the AL Central. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Colorado to face the Rockies in Coors, which should be a high-scoring series as well. Finally, the Padres and Dodgers are playing the second game of their series in the late hours, which is always an entertaining matchup for MLB fans.

OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are three strikeout props, two home run props and one total bases prop – our best ROI MLB prop bets today.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Corbin Burnes O/U 8.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

As expected, Corbin Burnes is having a nice season on the mound, with a 2.78 xFIP, 32.4% strikeout rate and just a 5.7% walk rate. He is averaging 1.28 strikeouts per inning. His prop is set to over/under 8.5 strikeouts, and to go over this prop he would on average have to pitch seven innings. The Pirates have the fourth-highest strikeout rate to right-handed pitchers, with a 25% strikeout rate. Burnes is also coming off of a nine-strikeout game in 7.2 innings against Toronto. He also had a 10-strikeout game in 7.0 innings against St. Louis in the start before that. Earlier this season, he had a stretch of three games with 10 or more strikeouts, going 10, 11 and 10, which he then followed up with some seven- and five-strikeout games afterward. Going nine or more strikeouts consistently isn’t sustainable. The Stokastic MLB Model projects Burnes for seven strikeouts and gives him a 73% chance of staying under the 8.5 strikeouts posted. This bet has a 28% expected ROI and is the best strikeout prop on the board.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Corbin Burnes UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-132)

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Alex Cobb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Alex Cobb pitches to the Chicago White Sox tonight. Cobb has a strikeout rate of 26.5% and a 7.0% walk rate, and he is averaging 1.15 strikeouts per inning, a career high for him. Despite him having a 5.48 ERA, his xFIP is quite good at 2.70. On average, he would have to pitch 4.1 innings or more to reach five strikeouts based on his numbers this season. The White Sox have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate to right-handed pitchers this season at 20.4%. Even with the low totals, 4.5 strikeouts is a low prop. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 59% chance of saying under 4.5 strikeouts. Because this bet is at +115, it creates an expected ROI of 27%.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Alex Cobb OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Jack Suwinski To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Jack Suwinski is batting .216 with a .296 on-base percentage, but one thing he does well is mash the ball, as evidenced by his .249 ISO. Because he is facing Corbin Burnes, the sportsbooks are setting his home run prop at 9-1 odds, giving him an implied 10% chance of hitting a home run. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 14% chance of hitting a home run. That 4% difference creates an expected ROI of 37%, making it one of the better prop bets on the slate. One leak in Burnes’ game right now is that he is allowing 1.16 HR/9, significantly higher than the 0.38 HR/9 he was allowing in 2021 or the 0.30 HR/9 he from 2020.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Jack Suwinski To Hit A Home Run (+900)

Adrian Sampson O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Adrian Sampson faces the Boston Red Sox today. In just 10.2 innings this season, he has a 24.4% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.94 strikeouts per inning. He has an 18% strikeout rate in his career and averages 0.78 strikeouts per inning. To reach four strikeouts, based on this season’s numbers it would take pitching 4.1 innings. Based on his career numbers, it would take 5.1 innings to reach four strikeouts. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Sampson a 63% chance of going over this prop and a 23% expected ROI.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Adrian Sampson OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Isaac Paredes To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Isaac Paredes is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He has a .355 ISO on the season, and he hit his 11th home run last night — reaching that total in just 37 games. Today, he will face Jose Berrios, who is allowing 1.95 HR/9. This is another great matchup for Paredes at the plate. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 16% chance of hitting a home run, while the odds imply a 12.8% chance, giving this bet an expected ROI of 24%.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Isaac Paredes To Hit A Home Run (+680)

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