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Best MLB Bets Today (7/15): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer

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It’s Friday, July 15, halfway through the month of July and the last weekend before the All-Star Break. There is one day game today, between the Mets and Cubs, and the rest of the 14 games start at or after 6:40 p.m. ET. Kyle Gibson and Sandy Alcantara face off in Miami between the Phillies and Marlins in an interesting matchup. The Red Sox and Yankees start yet another weekend series, this time in New York. Jose Quintana and German Marquez will pitch opposite each other in Coors Field, and tonight is a fun battle between the Dodgers and Angles in Anaheim, with Clayton Kershaw pitching for the Dodgers and Patrick Sandoval pitching for the Angels. With all the games going on, it can be difficult to prioritize the best MLB bets today.

OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are three strikeout props and two home run props — our best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.


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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Michael Kopech O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Michael Kopech pitches against the Twins tonight. He has a 22.6% strikeout rate this season and is averaging 0.92 strikeouts per inning. To reach five strikeouts, on average Kopech would need to pitch 5.2 innings on average. The Twins have the 16th-highest strikeout rate against righties this season. Kopech has pitched to Minnesota twice this season, striking out five in 4.2 innings on July 5 and seven in five innings on April 22. Kopech has gone over this total in eight out of 16 starts this season. It all comes down to walks for Kopech, as he has an 11.9% walk rate this season. In starts where he has fewer than three walks, he has gone over this total in every game but one. In starts with three walks or more, he has gone over this total just once.

Best MLB Pick Today: Michael Kopech OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)


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Robbie Ray O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Robbie Ray will start for the Seattle Mariners against the Texas Rangers tonight. On the season, Ray has a 27.6% strikeout rate and is averaging 1.11 strikeouts per inning. The Rangers have just the 16th-highest strikeout rate against lefties, at 22.1%. This matchup does not provide a boost or suppression of strikeouts, as the Rangers are right around the median. In his only start against the Rangers, he pitched six innings and struck out four batters. His prop is set high, and Ray has gone over this total in just eight of his 18 starts this season. OddsShopper gives him a 62% chance of staying under the total.

Best MLB Pick Today: Robbie Ray UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-118)


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Spencer Torkelson O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Claim $200 FREE

Spencer Torkelson will be batting against Zach Plesac and the Cleveland Guardians bullpen tonight. Torkelson has been disappointing this season, as there was some hype and expectations about him as a prospect. He had a .293 ISO in 40 games at Triple-A last year and a .297 ISO in 50 games at Double-A. This season in the major leagues, he has a .100 ISO and just five home runs in 295 plate appearances. The power potential is there, but he has not realized it at this level yet. Plesac is allowing 1.10 HR/9 this year and 1.36 HR/9 for his career. According to the Stokastic MLB Betting Model, Torkelson has a 15% chance of hitting a home run today, but the odds are implying an 11.8% chance, giving this bet a 25% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Spencer Torkelson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+750)


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Cole Irvin O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

The Houston Astros will face Cole Irvin. Irvin has just a 16% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.65 strikeouts per inning. To reach four strikeouts, he would need to pitch 6.1 innings. Irvin has been pitching deeper in games in his last three starts, with innings totals of six, eight and seven. He went six innings in his last start on July 10 against the Astros, though he struck out just two batters. The Stokastic MLB Betting Model gives him a 53% chance of going over the total, and the plus odds give this bet an 18% projected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Cole Irvin OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)


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Juan Yepez O/U 0.5 Home Runs| Claim $200 FREE

Juan Yepez will see Hunter Greene on the mound, followed by Cincinnati’s bullpen. Yepez has 11 home runs and a .206 ISO on the season, showing that his power in the minor leagues is legit. Greene isn’t a terrible pitcher by any means, as he has a 4.05 xFIP. His issue, however, is that he is allowing 2.32 HR/9 this season despite the otherwise solid peripheral numbers. The Stokastic MLB Betting Model gives Yepez a 21% chance of hitting a home run tonight, and the +470 odds give this bet a 22% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Juan Yepez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+470)


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Mike Yastrzemski O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Claim $200 FREE

Yesterday, the Mike Yastrzemski home run prop was the top prop bet of the night, and he’s back in that same spot tonight, this time facing Brandon Woodruff. Yastrzemski is not a big power hitter; he has eight home runs and a .171 ISO in 308 plate appearances. Bets like this are all about the probabilities and the differences between the Stokastic probability and the sportsbooks’ probability. The Stokastic Model gives Yastrzemski a 13% chance of hitting a home run, and the +1000 odds imply a 9.1% chance of hitting a home run. That difference gives a 38% expected ROI on the bet, even though winning the bet is more unlikely than likely.

Best MLB Pick Today: Mike Yastrzemski OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+1000)


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